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Protection Always Beats Prediction: The Un-Beta Portfolio – Part II

I can’t say if we are in a bear rally or, after 7 years, phhht, that was all the correction we got before heading off to the races again. But since I don’t know, I’m very happy with our Un-Beta Portfolio. In my last article, here , introducing this portfolio, I noted that for a generation now, a little more than 70% of the total market return has come from dividend income. Some might say, “Yeah, but didn’t people who invested that way miss the big moves?” First of all, what is a “yabbit” and second, yes, the massive rise from April 1997- Dec 1999 skewed the capital returns to the upside – but the 2000 to mid-2002 decline took 100% of the rise back again! Ditto for the rise from mid-2002 until the spring of 2007; all that and more was lost by March 2009. (By the way, if Un-Beta has a familiar ring to it, readers of a certain age may recall my inspiration for this title: back in the ’70s, Geoffrey Holder, the Tony Award-winning actor, dancer, choreographer, painter and singer, pitched “The Un-Cola” for 7-Up, to distinguish its clean, refreshing, unadorned taste with all the other colored, flavored, more complicated colas out there.) It “seems” to me, now that we have had 7 good years of good market (certainly prolonged by Fed intervention, stock buybacks at ever higher prices, and a proliferation of pro forma rather than GAAP earnings reporting) that we are likely to see another decline. But no matter how many gurus tell you they “know” what the market will do, no one really knows. So mine is not a prediction, nor do I invest with the certainty “it must go up” or the certainty that “it must go down!” So I put my money, and that of our clients, where there is some certainty in an uncertain situation. I look to form the base of my investing pyramid by placing 50% or so in fixed income. That doesn’t mean bonds necessarily, though I’m happy to use them where appropriate. And it doesn’t mean we have a static portfolio; one must always fine-tune as a better opportunity to increase yield or raise quality comes along. In my last article, I mentioned some of my favored foreign and US bond funds and closed-end funds; municipal funds, closed-end funds and ETFs; and specific preferred shares, all of which we purchased below par and all of which, thanks to the Fed’s unwillingness to stick to its charter of keeping employment high and inflation under control (in favor of goosing the markets to the detriment of savers!), have roared ahead just like common stocks. All these form the base of a very solid investing pyramid. If you’d like to review some of these for your own due diligence, I refer you to that article. The next level up on our pyramid are dividend-paying real estate investment trusts (REITs) and a select few dividend-paying common stocks. Again, I must caution: these are not static positions! The asset classes themselves are a constant in our “protect, don’t predict” Un-Beta Portfolio but there are many different types of REITs, some of which do best in certain market environments, some of which do poorly. This situation is always fluid so I watch these like a hawk and do my best to stay on top of the game by sliding into the up-and-comers and out of the overbought or likely to underperform areas. For instance, with an improving economy, many investors have concluded that business travel will pick up again and with cheap gas, more vacationers will travel this year. But others are concerned that Airbnb (Private: AIRB ) will make a serious dent in the hotel business and that the USD is still too strong to encourage tourists to visit the US. I tend to come down on the former side. So do at least some others. Lodging firm Starwood (NYSE: HOT ), the non-REIT parent of among others, St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le Méridien, Sheraton, and Four Point hotels, is currently mulling two competing takeover bids. The dollar is 3% cheaper this month than last and I believe Airbnb is enjoying the first flush of victory but without any real competition. If their business model proves a success, it will beget competitors and sooner or later quality will suffer. Plus, there are a very large number of business travelers who don’t want “unique!” “cozy!” or “friendly neighbors!” They are there to get work done and they want privacy, quiet, certain amenities like WiFi that absolutely must work, and above all – no surprises. Add to these folks like me who are happy to experience the unusual or unique when traveling but, on balance, if on a road trip, I want to accrue loyalty points and have dependable quality since I’m just passing through. I can stay at the Hampton Inns and Hyatt Places that are located along the way, in smaller towns where there is no Airbnb option and, by accruing those loyalty points, stay where I prefer in London, Paris or New York, where there are lots of Airbnb choices. I know some of the Airbnb homes can be quite nice. I just saw photographs of the $10,000 Airbnb home that Beyonce and (separately) Justin Bieber stayed at in Los Altos, CA. 5 bedrooms, infinity pool, 11 acres with an orchard, etc. Of course, pandering to celebrity, high sport these days, Airbnb picks up the tab for numerous celebrities in order to get the biggest bang for their marketing dollar. “As a hospitality company that embraces hosting, we work with a number of celebrities and often pick up the tab for their stays,” Airbnb said. Since I’m pretty certain Airbnb is not going to invite thee and me to enjoy such earthly delights, I’ll use my accrued points to stay for the same price – free – at the Bangkok Hilton, the Grand Hyatt Hong Kong, the Singapore Conrad, the (Hyatt) Hotel Madeleine in Paris or the (Hyatt) Hotel Churchill, don’tcha know, when in London. I don’t need 5 bedrooms, and the infinity pool at the Bangkok Hilton is sized just right – for two. Among the lodging REITs I like best is Ashford Hospitality Prime (NYSE: AHP ). Their properties tend to be high-end so Airbnb or a strong dollar are unlikely to deter guests who like to be pampered at properties like the Pier House in Key West (just down the road from my own version of Airbnb, our lower Keys vacation home we rent when not there), the Bardessono Hotel and Spa in Napa, the Water Tower Sofitel in Chicago or the Ritz-Carlton in Saint Thomas. AHP carries a higher debt load than most of its competitors and does not compare as well in ROA, ROE or operating margins. It doesn’t even pay as good a dividend. In other words, management just doesn’t seem to be on the ball. On the other hand, all this is already reflected in the price – it’s only a couple points off its 52-week low – and the activists are circling. The company’s second-largest holder, Sessa Capital, is currently trying to get board representation to get this company’s management moving. Two other lodging REITs I am reviewing for possible inclusion in client portfolios are the much larger, better capitalized and better managed LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO ) and Host Hotels and Resorts (NYSE: HST ). I am also a fan of most health care REITs. It’s true that health care is down right now, having participated only weakly in the recent (thus far) short rally. But whether the Feds decide to penalize the health care industry even more than Obamacare already has or not, people are still going to age and they are still going to get sick. We may have no doctors left to treat them (my little town here at Lake Tahoe had 4 two years ago; 3 shut down their practice, citing the fact that Obamacare forces them to pay more attention to the clock than their patients!) but if we do, they’ll need clinics and offices and hospitals. Our clients own three REITs that specialize in such medical office and treatment buildings: Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE: DOC ), Healthcare Realty Trust (NYSE: HR ), and Healthcare Trust of America (NYSE: HTA ). We also own some REITs that specialize in gerontological care and accommodations. Before my mom’s Alzheimer’s became so bad she needed special care, she had her own private apartment in such a facility, with common meals, many activities, and nurses on staff and doctors on call for any medical issues. This piqued my interest, so early on I researched and bought Ventas (NYSE: VTR ), LTC Properties (NYSE: LTC ), Welltower (NYSE: HCN ), Omega Healthcare (NYSE: OHI ) and National Health (NYSE: NHI ). I could go into a long discourse on each but here’s a better idea. I am indebted to Brad Thomas , editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, for the latest research and opinion on many REITs, these among them. I’m not vain enough to claim every idea is my own or all my research is seminal; no one has a lock on all the good ideas. So I would suggest that you Google his name and affiliation for more on these and other fine REITs. (Brad is also a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha.) Finally – except for our cash position, some special situations particularly in energy, and a few short hedges, which I may discuss in a future article – we come to our flexible funds, long/short funds and managed futures funds. In the interest of time and tide, I will go into them in greater depth in my very next article, but for now know that this part of our Un-Beta Portfolio is critical. These are the holdings that allow us to move up with the market but cushion us, to varying degrees, when it declines. There are ETFs for all these strategies but, frankly, the sharpest talent in most of them are the active managers in mutual funds. This is nowhere more evident than in the flexible portfolio arena where two Leuthold funds, Core (MUTF: LCORX ) and Global (MUTF: GLBLX ) rise to the top. Others of note in this niche or the closely-aligned mixed asset target allocation area are Vanguard Wellesley (MUTF: VWINX ), Ridgeworth Conservative Allocation (MUTF: SCCTX ) and Hartford Balanced Income (MUTF: HBLAX ). I recommend all of these for your own due diligence. Rounding out the rest of the long-bias, but still long classic long/short playing field, are my three favorite true long/short funds, Boston Partners Long/ Short Research (MUTF: BPRRX ), and Global Long/Short (MUTF: BGRSX ) as well as AQR Long/Short Equity (MUTF: QLEIX ). And I like the managed futures funds from AQR as well, both AQR Managed Futures (MUTF: AQMIX ) and its close cousin AQR Equity Market Neutral (MUTF: QMNIX ). Warning! All classes of the AQR funds are available if you work with a Registered Investment Advisor (and maybe other types of financial advisors as well); go to them on your own, however, and the minimum purchase is from $1 million to $5 million! If that’s not your cup of tea, then you might take a look at QuantShares US Market Neutral (NYSEARCA: BTAL ), an ETF with just enough volume to meet our minimum threshold for liquidity. I’ve tried to give the view from 30,000 feet in these two articles about the content of our Un-Beta Portfolio. I promise to provide much more in depth now that the broad outlines are out there for everyone to see, criticize, mimic or simply use in your own portfolio strategy or for your own further due diligence! Disclaimer: As ​ a ​ Registered Investment Advisor, ​ I believe it is essential to advise that ​ I do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth Management, and should not be construed as “personalized” investment advice . Past performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the current #1 mutual fund one year only to watch it plummet the following year. I encourage you to do your own due diligence on issues I discuss to see if they might be of value in your own investing. I take my responsibility to offer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that investing in any securities my clients or family are investing in will always be profitable. I do our best to get it right, and our firm “eats our own cooking,” but I could be wrong, hence my full disclosure as to whether we or our clients own or are buying the investments we write about. ​ Disclosure: I am/we are long AHP, DOC, HTR, VTR, HCN, NHI, LCORX, GLBLX, BPRRX, BGRSX, AQMIX, BTAL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

VIX: A Hedge To Consider For Your Portfolio

It is not uncommon to see the markets follow irrational trends. Sometimes, the markets will climb up or drop down on information that may indicate contrary trends. This past month I’ve been watching the markets with immense caution; I was a little surprised that we have seen US stocks rise for a fifth straight week. For the long run, I have a handful of stocks I think will grow exceptionally, but for the most part I believe we are entering a bear market, and I have thus prepared myself with hedges. The headlines, and the data and statistics that are coming in from Central banks and governments across the world are not exactly signaling optimism for the markets, yet the markets are trending towards all-time highs. ^SPX data by YCharts I think it’s absurd that the S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs, especially at a time like this. I will not go in depth as to why I think we are due for a major correction (again), but I will simply write a basic summary about why we are likely going to continue falling into a bear market, and about why investing in the VIX index might be smart. The reasons for a bear market heavily outweigh the reasons for a bull market right now. Commodities have staged an odd recovery the past couple of weeks that hasn’t exactly made much sense. Most importantly right now is the prices of oil; oil has proved to be latched on to the movement of stocks and vice versa. Brent Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts Brent crude oil has spiked over $10 USD in less than a couple months, but why? The world oil supply has remained at roughly 98 mb/d the past couple of months and demand has also been idle. I firmly believe oil will stage a recovery, but this recovery seems fake and is happening way too fast, which is alarming. In addition to the suspicious rise in commodity prices, there is tons of debt everywhere. People are getting crushed by margin calls, people are still accumulating debt, and energy companies are on the brink of bankruptcies. Banks are also having a hard time. Many major banks are hitting 52-week lows, although they have recovered slightly; but that point aside, they are still going to have to deal with lower interest rates. Nations around the world are following a general trend of lowering interest rates, even into the negative and this will likely hurt major bank stocks. Banks have also proven to be central to market crashes in recent history. It was a little surprising to see the markets react so positively to the Fed’s latest press release. Yellen gave the people a lot of “ifs” and “buts” and “maybes”, and I feel it did not justify the market spike we have just seen. On top of all this, we are seeing a ton of political turmoil, which inevitably affects the markets. There are a lot of problems right now in the world: Brazil is on the brink of a political and economic collapse, Europe is dealing with the refugee crisis which in turn is giving right wing groups serious power and support, Brexit is a serious possibility and would have potential consequences on markets worldwide (and in my personal opinion the Brexit would negatively impact the world markets), and then there’s the Middle East tension. I don’t want this article to be a sensationalist piece, but there are a lot of similarities between what is going on right now and the 1930s. Basically, I believe we are in for a roller coaster ride, and if there are people out there who are long on the markets as a whole, maybe a hedge or two would greatly benefit your portfolio. The VIX index The VIX is an index that uses options to predict stock market volatility, and it is commonly referred to as the fear gauge. ^VIX data by YCharts As you can see from the chart we have had numerous spikes in a short span of time. The last time we’ve seen this type of market volatility was in 2011, and I believe this time there is potential for the volatility to be even greater. Depending what market one invests in, it is entirely possible to put some money in an index that tracks the movement of the VIX. When the time comes for the market to crash, one’s portfolio will be protected with a hedge in the VIX, but this is definitely a highly risky trade. For example, Canadians, or those who invest in the TSX can invest in HVU. As I write this article the VIX is approaching lows it hasn’t seen since early 2015, but I believe the market volatility has just begun. Catching the bottom of the VIX and riding it up during a major spike could be very profitable, but once again this is to be used as a swing trade, and the ETF should not be held for more than a couple of weeks at most. Generally, I want readers to tread with caution in this current market environment. Everything seems off, and the markets are being irrational at the moment, thus a crash or a longer bear market might be in store for us. Hedging your portfolio is important, and remember to do your own research. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Want To Become A Millionaire During The Market Crash? Buy This ETF

With gold regaining its status as a safe alternative to equities, it’s about time we look at the precious metal. Gold is becoming increasingly important in this market, and the potential for large gains relates to (1) the range gold can move and (2) the possibility of a reversal with extremely high momentum: Gold’s huge sell-off since 2011 makes a comeback one of potentially great heights – a 50% upside if your price target is the previous high. We are seeing the best quarterly performance in gold in the past 30 years, signaling a possible turnaround. In this article, we will focus on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) instead of the physical metal or futures. While futures perhaps constitute the most profitable of the bunch for speculative trades, it is also of higher risk and outside the risk tolerance of most investors. Physical gold is the best of these three options for holding gold but is illiquid and has delivery as well as storage costs. For most investors, GLD is the best option to play gold, even though it does not entitle you to physical gold. Thus, if you’re buying gold to prepare for an economic collapse or the like, look into physical gold. For the rest of us, we will discuss GLD as an investment. Speculative? Gold is less speculative than most other commodities and is typically safer, as the biggest governments’ central banks still hold gold as a reserve asset. Those who suspect a true economic collapse typically hold gold, banking on the idea that gold will become an actual currency if fiat currencies fail. Although I am bearish on the economy and hate the current financial system, I highly doubt that non-fiat currency will ever “become a thing.” Thus, we should look at gold as an investment somewhere between the speculative investments of stocks and the inflation-defensive investments of bonds. If we place GLD on this spectrum, it is closer to a bond ETF than a stock. Indeed, like bonds and unlike stocks, most hedge funds are not apt to take strong short positions on GLD: Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg) The demand for GLD from hedge funds is more attributable to true hedges (most hedge funds aren’t actually for the sake of hedging) than speculative positions meant to profit from a demand for gold. That is, GLD is seen as a protection against a market crash. If this were not true, we would not see so many GLD positions in hedge funds during the 2014 gold bear market. With GLD being at a near-year high for net-long positions in hedge funds, we can only ask if the hedge funds know something we don’t. The recent economic news has been mixed. The Philly Fed report, for instance, shows a huge spike in new orders; other reports, such as imports and exports show clear declines. Gold and the Market What we have noticed in the past few months is that GLD has seemingly lost its negative correlation to the stock market. That is, when stocks surge, GLD does not drop as expected. In fact, in the past few weeks we have seen both GLD and the general market rally. I sincerely doubt this is due to a real need for gold – i.e., gold used for jewelry. No, the recent gold rally is more likely due to banks and hedge funds increasing their holdings in gold, primarily as hedges but also as speculative investments. Remember that Goldman Sachs correctly predicted the gold crash in 2013; now they are predicting a rally for 2016. The Fed also has some blame. Without clear policies for interest rates, Fed pushes banks and hedge funds toward gold. The lack of the rate raise last Wednesday has caused concern for the dollar and for future rate raises, as explained in this video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDBJrdksAFs It’s Not All about the US Check out this line for the new iPhone in China: Actually, I lied. That’s a line to buy gold from back in June 2013, which coincided with a 12% correction in the Chinese stock market. (Source: Caixin) Demand in Asia is also driving up the price of gold, which drives up GLD as a proxy. According to Reuters, the majority of gold demand comes from Asia. India and China alone make up 50% of the gold demand. With North America only accounting for 8% of gold demand, it’s no wonder that the US stock market and gold prices are out of alignment. In fact, to predict gold demand, you might be better off watching the Chinese stock market. On that note, we see physical gold demand at pre-2008 levels. Miners Miners affect gold price by increasing the supply. Mine production has slowed in growth and is at a nearly sideways trend. Much of the recent gold production has been from China, which has been constantly increasing its gold mining efforts despite the low price of gold. China uses gold to hedge its currency. With the Yuan taking hits in the recent years, China’s growing gold reserves have served their purposes. The Chinese demand for gold should grow as the Yuan falls. If world gold mine production continues to fall to where gold production levels out, we have a status quo situation, in which demand exceeds supply. In this situation, gold prices will rise in tandem with the current stock market bubble and debt bubble. Currency War The currency war, which is currently underway, makes future currency prices unpredictable. Japan wants a weak Yen and therefore a strong greenback. China wants a strong Yuan and therefore a weak greenback. The US, with its recent interest rate hold, has given China what it wants. But the currency wars have just begun. Most of the major currencies will see devaluation against one another. Eventually, some currencies will come out on top. But throughout this chaos, we should see gold appreciate against all other currencies, simply because gold doesn’t have a country or a central bank trying to devalue it. Thus, the simultaneous devaluation of the greenback and Yen, for example, will provide a rising gold/dollar and gold/yen phenomenon. Stock Market Crash The stock market crash or correction that we will inevitably see ( I’m predicting 2016 ) should further bolster the strength of gold. A market crash will likely lead to the printing of money for the purpose of quantitative easing, which would further devalue currencies, amplifying the currency wars. Interest rate decreases would also help stimulate the economy but hurt the bond market. Hence the final node of the vicious cycle: investors and hedge funds selling bonds and avoiding cash in favor of appreciating gold. An ounce of gold could easily break the $3,000 per ounce price range in such a situation. Holding GLD during this time could easily be your best-performing asset. If this prediction comes true, you would only need have invested $419,000 in GLD to turn that sum into a nice million. Learn More about Earnings My Exploiting Earnings premium subscription is now live, here on Seeking Alpha. In this newsletter, we will be employing both fundamental and pattern analyses to predict price movements of specific companies after specific earnings. I will also be offering specific strategies for playing those earnings reports. Our last newsletter looked at the upcoming earnings for Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU ). Request an Article Because my articles occasionally get 500+ comments, if you have a request for an analysis on a specific stock, ETF, or commodity, please use @damon in the comments section below to leave your request. Disclosure: I am/we are long GLD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.