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Pain Or Gain Ahead For Bank ETFs?

The going has been tough for bank ETFs for quite some time now mainly due to the twin attacks of a delay in further Fed rate hikes after a liftoff in December and the energy sector lull. Moreover, UBS Group AG’s (NYSE: UBS ) moderate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2015 triggered a sell-off in banking stocks because the bank pointed to several macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical issues that will bother its operations in the near term. Not only banking stocks, broad-based risk-on sentiments took a backseat in the first quarter of 2016. Now, with the earnings season impending and the broader markets rebounding, albeit slowly, let’s catch a glimpse of the looming headwinds and tailwinds to the banking sector. Headwinds Tightening Yields: The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield slipped to 1.76% on April 6, 2016 (down 48 since the start of the year) while the yield on the short-term Treasury note (one year of maturity) fell to 0.55% on the same day (down just 6 bps since the beginning of 2016). The narrowing gap between the short and long-term yields has been a cause of concern for the backing sector (read: Bank ETFs Hurt by the Dovish Fed ). In fact, in early March, the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields tapered the most since 2009. Narrowing spread between long- and short-term rates hurts net interest margin, which a key metric for the banking sector. Energy Sector Exposure: U.S. banks have significant exposure to the long-ailing energy sector where chances of credit default are higher. In February, the S&P cut its outlook on several regional banks with the highest energy sector exposure citing a likely increase in non-performing assets. Among the biggies, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) reported around $42 billion oil and gas credit in February. The situation is the same for JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ), the energy loan of which accounts for 57% of the investment-grade paper. JPMorgan has ‘ set aside $600 million’ for loan losses emanating from the energy, metals and mining sectors. Panama Papers Scandal: The leaked documents from Panama Law firm Mossack Fonseca & Co. revealing global business leaders and officials moving money to international tax havens may take a toll on bank stocks. Banks may now face more stringent scrutiny and litigation issues to arrest means of evading taxes. Tailwinds Increased Activity: Having described the stress situation, we would like to note that fears of a 2008-like recession or financial market crash are perhaps exaggerated. The lower interest rates should boost capital market activities and benefit banks in other ways. After all, bank stocks have gained their lost ground in the U.S. in a rock-bottom interest rate environment (see all Financials ETFs here). Compelling Valuation: The finance sector has a current-year P/E of 12.6 times, reflecting a 27.6% discount to the S&P while its next-year P/E stands at 11.5 times, reflecting a 25.3% discount to the S&P 500. Such an intriguing valuation might also help the sector to score gains as and when favorable industry dynamics hit the space. ETF Impact All in all, bank stocks are on the fence with pain and gain on either side, though downside risks look higher at the current level. So, investors seeking a financial sector exposure can have a look at the following ETFs: The PowerShares KBW Bank Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: KBWB ) , with considerable exposure to Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and US Bancorp (NYSE: USB ). The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook. SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBE ) also has similar holdings; but it holds stocks in an equal-weighted manner. No stock accounts for more than 2.19% of the fund and diversifies stock-specific risks pretty well. KBE has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA: KRE ) takes into account companies that do business as regional banks or thrifts. KRE also has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. iShares MSCI Europe Financials Sector Index ETF (NASDAQ: EUFN ) measures the combined equity market performance of the financial sector of developed market countries in Europe. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Top 4 Asia-Pacific Mutual Funds To Branch Out Your Portfolio

The U.S. stock markets are put off by discouraging valuations while Europe is under the burden of ageing economies. Europe is also struggling to cope with the migration crisis and repeated terrorist attacks. In this world where returns are hard to come by, Asia-Pacific should figure in the list of investable regions. Investing in funds exposed to such a region will help balance your portfolio across developed, emerging and frontier markets. This diversification across a heterogeneous spread of economies will eventually protect one’s moolah in today’s tumultuous economic scenario. Moreover, the Asia Development Bank (ADB) reported that growth in Asia is expected to be more than 5% this year. This is a strikingly positive outlook, given that global growth is averaging slightly more than 3% a year. Growth in the pacific sub region is also anticipated to be around 3.8% this year. Among the major economies, China showed signs of improvement, while India is likely to drive growth in Asia. Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also assured investors that Japan’s economy is on a moderate recovery trend despite coming under substantial pressure from a rising yen against the U.S. dollar. China Resilient, India to Bolster Growth China’s factory indicators point to a pickup in the economy supported by greater stability in the yuan and a rise in its stock markets. After eight consecutive months of decline, China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 in March. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. A separate indicator, the private Caixin manufacturing PMI, rose to 49.7 in March from 48.0 in February. In spite of being below 50, it turned out to be the index’s highest reading in the past 13 months. China’s service sector also expanded last month, which bodes well for a country striving to transform into a consumer-driven economy in the long term. China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8 in March from 52.7 in February. Consumer sentiment too rose sharply in March. The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator jumped 6.1% to 118.1 in March, its highest level since Sep 2015. Meanwhile, India’s economic growth is expected to be 7.4% this year, according to the ADB. Even though the growth rate has been slashed, the pace is still healthy when compared to other economies of the world. ADB further added that with more foreign direct investment in the economy along with strong corporate balance sheets, the nation will be able to maintain the growth level. With more reforms in the way, the country is expected to grow much stronger. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had said that the “Indian economy is currently being viewed as a beacon of stability because of the steady disinflation, a modest current account deficit and commitment to fiscal rectitude.” How Did Asia-Pacific Mutual Funds Fare? Among the major funds that are exposed to the Asia-Pacific region, most of them have fared exceedingly well in the last three months. During this span, funds such as Columbia Pacific/Asia A (MUTF: CASAX ), Fidelity Pacific Basin (MUTF: FPBFX ), Matthews Asia Dividend Investor (MUTF: MAPIX ), Matthews Asia Growth Investor (MUTF: MPACX ), Invesco Pacific Growth A (MUTF: TGRAX ) and Wells Fargo International Value A (MUTF: WFFAX ) gained 4.9%, 5.8%, 7.5%, 5.1%, 3.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Standard deviation of all these funds for the one-year period ending on March 31, 2016, also turned out to be less than the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index’s standard deviation of 17.8%. There is no guarantee that even the most well-managed fund will give steady returns. However, these funds showing low standard deviation indicate a long track record of consistent returns. 4 Asia-Pacific Mutual Funds to Buy As mentioned above, just as the major economies in the Asia-Pacific region are showing signs of stability, the foremost funds are also giving healthy and consistent returns. Hence, investment in mutual funds that focus on the Asia-Pacific region can be a good choice. This corner of the world has some of the world’s most varied and economically vibrant countries. As a result, you can balance out your portfolio by investing across developed and emerging financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region. For now, we have selected 4 Asia-Pacific mutual funds that have given positive 3-year annualized returns, carry a low expense ratio, have minimum initial investment within $5000 and possess a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). T. Rowe Price New Asia (MUTF: PRASX ) normally invests a large portion of its net assets in Asian companies (excluding Japanese companies). PRASX’s 3-year annualized return is 0.6%. Annual expense ratio of 0.94% is lower than the category average of 1.50%. PRASX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Matthews Asia Dividend Investor seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing the majority of its net assets in dividend-paying equity securities of companies located in Asia. MAPIX’s 3-year annualized return is 3.3%. Annual expense ratio of 1.05% is lower than the category average of 1.34%. MAPIX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Fidelity Pacific Basin invests a major portion of its assets in securities of Pacific Basin issuers and other investments that are tied economically to the Pacific Basin. FPBFX’s 3-year annualized return is 6.8%. Annual expense ratio of 1.17% is lower than the category average of 1.34%. FPBFX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. Columbia Pacific/Asia I (MUTF: CPCIX ) invests a major portion of its net assets in equity securities of companies located in Asia and the Pacific Basin, which includes India. CPCIX’s 3-year annualized return is 2.6%. Annual expense ratio of 1.04% is lower than the category average of 1.34%. CPCIX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Original Post

Why Popular Investments Are Usually Wrong

By Alan Gula Oscar Wilde, the 19th century poet and playwright, once said: “Everything popular is wrong.” The Irish wordsmith wasn’t referring to the financial markets, but he may as well have been. That’s because investors should be very wary of the popular stocks, sectors, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) du jour. While it’s true that momentum can persist, more often than not, popularity is the kiss of death. In finance, the degree of popularity is typically referred to as sentiment. Fundamentals matter in the long term, but sentiment is what really drives short- and intermediate-term moves in the financial markets. Caution is, therefore, essential when sentiment reaches a bullish extreme. The Texas Hedge It was a no-brainer, can’t-lose trade. Pundits on CNBC and Bloomberg TV were supremely confident in the outcome. Fund flows poured in to take advantage of its inevitability. This was a “layup” – a sure thing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) was going to depress the value of the Japanese yen, and Japanese equities would rise due to exporters benefiting from a cheap currency. Naturally, everyone wanted to be long Japanese stocks, but short the yen, and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) provided an easy way to do just that. Except now investors are realizing that they aren’t hedged at all. Ironically, the yen has gone through the roof ever since the BOJ implemented a quasi-negative interest rate scheme. The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) recently hit its lowest level since October 2014 (a decline in USD/JPY represents dollar weakness, yen strength). Thus, anyone betting on a decline in the yen is getting bludgeoned in the market. Not only that, Japanese equities are, unsurprisingly, falling in tandem with USD/JPY. This is a lose/lose situation for DXJ holders. Since April 2015, when I warned that investors in currency “hedged” ETFs were essentially speculating on currency movements, DXJ has lost 26% of its value (including distributions). Going back even further to early 2014, DXJ has produced a total return of negative 6%. Alas, it was so popular! Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 has returned a positive 16%. Shifting Sentiment To be sure, DXJ now offers a far better risk-reward proposition than it did a year ago. Basically, the fund may excel because the trade is not nearly as popular. We’re even seeing currency futures speculators, in aggregate, bet on yen appreciation . The last time this group had a net long position in the yen was 2012, right before the yen plummeted as “Abenomics” was introduced. In other words, the sentiment of this crowd is a contrarian indicator. Sentiment notwithstanding, the fundamentals for Japan, in general, remain poor. Japan has a shortage of the most precious natural resource on the planet: children. Do the central planners really think that burning their currency at the stake is going to solve anything? Well, they certainly shouldn’t. Nonetheless, the short-term swings will continue, as prices are determined – at the margin – by human behavior and emotions. This is why serially buying the most popular investments is a great way to destroy wealth. Meanwhile, the fundamentals for U.S. Treasuries remain strong. The real trick, however, will be knowing when they, too, have become overly popular. Original Post