Tag Archives: etf

A Shopping List For Bargain Hunters

The old saying that “things can always get worse” seems to be an apt description for markets so far this year. A poor start to the year has snowballed into an environment in which investors are being paid to “sell the rallies.” Year-to-date global equity markets are down roughly 10 percent in dollar terms, as measured by Bloomberg performance data for the MSCI ACWI Index (NASDAQ: ACWI ). While a few markets, notably Canada and Mexico, are flat to nominally higher, several market segments, including U.S. biotech, China and Italy are down more than 20 percent since the start of the year, according to Bloomberg data for the Nasdaq Biotechnology index and the respective MSCI country indices. Against this backdrop, bargain-hunting investors are asking whether there may be opportunities. My take: Given that the sell-off is occurring in the aftermath of a multi-year bull market, stocks overall still aren’t cheap. That said, it’s not too early to begin compiling a shopping list of potential bargains that may be worth considering . While the selling has returned some value to equities, the best that can be said is that most markets now look reasonable. According to a BlackRock analysis using Bloomberg data, a global benchmark ( ACWI ) is trading at around 16.5x trailing earnings , down around 7.5 percent from last summer’s peak but roughly in-line with the 10-year valuation average. Global stocks look cheaper on a price-to-book ( P/B ) basis, but with the exception of emerging markets equities, they are only trading at a small discount to their 10-year average. If valuation is unlikely to put a floor under markets, there are two other scenarios that could help establish a bottom: signs of economic stabilization or a more aggressive, coordinated response from central banks. As I don’t view either as imminent , markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term. There’s value to be found if you know where to look However, for investors looking to bargain hunt, there are certain segments of the market that are trading at a significant discount. While it may still be too early to pull the purchase trigger, these two segments in particular are worth a closer look. 1. Emerging Markets. After underperforming for the better part of the past five years, emerging market stocks, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, are one of the few, genuinely cheap asset classes. At roughly 1.25x trailing book value, emerging market equities are trading at a level last seen at their trough in early 2009. On a relative basis, using the MSCI World Index as a proxy for developed markets, EM stocks trade at nearly a 35 percent discount to developed markets, the largest such discount since the market bottom in 2003, according to an analysis of data accessible via Bloomberg. 2. Energy stocks . The other universally unloved asset class is energy. While assessing ” fair value ” is always an elusive exercise when discussing commodities, the recent plunge in oil prices seems to have created value in energy-related companies . With energy firms’ earnings still plunging, their price-to-earnings ( P/E ) ratios don’t look very appealing. However, based on P/B measurements, the sector, as represented by the S&P 500 GIC Energy Sector, is trading at the lowest level of the past twenty years and at about a 45 percent discount to the broader U.S. equity market. Even assuming future write-downs, the current discount looks large. Emerging markets and energy have another argument in their favor: Over the past several months, rising volatility has begun to chip away at the momentum trade. Long positions in biotech and tech darlings have already been hit. Downside momentum plays continue to work, but being underweight, or short, energy or emerging market stocks have become very crowded trades. Similar to what has happened to long-side momentum plays , such downside momentum trades are likely to violently reverse at some point. When that occurs, these two segments appear well positioned to benefit. This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.

Income Investors In Risky, Energy-Related Products Get Creamed

Brokers who pitched energy based structured products during the recent oil boom to conservative clients will be flooded with phone calls from angry clients. As the price of oil has crashed from $100 a barrel less than two years ago to below $30 on Thursday, investors who bought structured products looking to generate income have been crushed. The pain felt by investors in the futures market, energy partnerships, high-yield corporate bonds and the shares of oil and gas companies is well known, noted Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig last weekend. But the plummeting price of oil is also “wreaking havoc” on opaque and complex structured products tied to the price of oil, Zweig reported. In 2015, the biggest names on Wall Street, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), issued at least 300 so-called “structured notes,” which are short-term borrowings with returns linked to the price of oil or other energy-related assets. Remember those heady days, just a year ago? It was a perfect time for Wall Street to pump out high-risk products and sell them to Mom and Pop investors. The stock market had gone up in almost a straight line since March 2009, the depths of the credit crisis. The demand for commodities seemed vast, and the U.S. energy industry, with the boom in fracking, looked invincible even though oil prices had started to slide. Those structured securities issued last year total at least $1.3 billion, with most maturing later this year. Investors have a bit of time for oil to bounce back, however, if that bounce doesn’t happen, expect a flood of investor complaints to be filed against the brokers and broker-dealers who sold the structured notes. The allure of the notes and structured products is that investors can make a lot of money if oil goes up just a smidge, with some notes tripling gains at a capped rate. But in some cases there is no protection on the downside, so investors will see “dollar for dollar losses, without limit,” if the fund goes down, noted Zweig. But getting back to even will not be easy, noted one analyst cited by Zweig. “They vast majority of them are underwater,” said the analyst. “And a lot are materially underwater. On many of them, you’d need a 50% to 100% jump in the price of oil from today’s levels to get to break-even.” “This is not really an investment strategy so much as a wager on which way oil prices are going,” another analyst told Zweig. “And some of the risks and costs of that wager are masked by the complexity of it.” Hidden risks and costs, a complicated investment structure based on derivatives – readers, these are red flags in any market. “Many people who thought they were buying black gold on the cheap appear to own a black hole instead, with limited means of escape,” concludes Zweig. We couldn’t agree more. Zamansky LLC are securities and investment fraud attorneys representing investors in federal and state litigation against financial institutions. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

First Trust To Launch Second Actively Managed Commodity ETF

In 2013, First Trust launched the actively managed First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy ETF (NASDAQ: FTGC ), a fund that takes long positions in commodity futures. The time since has been difficult for commodities markets, and as a result, FTGC’s performance has suffered along with other funds in the category: For the year ending January 31, for instance, the ETF has returned -20.52%. However, these returns ranked in the top quintile of funds in its category. Long and Short Positions Perhaps in response, First Trust’s second actively managed commodity ETF – for which it filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on January 28 – will pursue an absolute returns strategy . This means the fund will take both long and short positions in pursuit of positive returns, irrespective of benchmarks, while aiming for lower volatility than traditional funds. The ability to take short positions will obviously help the fund produce positive returns, should commodities remain in a bear market. A long/short approach in the commodity sector has been very effective for the LoCorr Long/Short Commodity Strategy Fund (MUTF: LCSAX ), one of the few long/short commodity fund competitors in the mutual fund and ETF space. That fund has bucked the downdraft in the commodities markets and has generated annualized returns of 12.79% over the past 3-years through January 31. Offshore Subsidiary Like FTGC (and many other funds that use commodity futures), the new fund will invest up to a quarter of its assets in a subsidiary based in the Cayman Islands. This subsidiary will invest in commodity-based futures contracts, with certain tax advantages, while the remainder of the fund’s assets will be invested in cash and short-term debt. Commodities markets have been struggling, largely due to the extreme bear market in crude oil, but this has actually led to increased interest in actively managed commodity funds. As pointed out by ETF.com, Elkhorn and Van Eck have both filed for such funds over the past few months, but First Trust’s new fund is the first to include a short component. This, combined with the firm’s pedigree as the first to launch an actively managed commodities ETF of any kind lends gravitas to the new fund, which will be known as the First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF. Jason Seagraves contributed to this article.