Tag Archives: earnings-center

Is Elevated Volatility On Modest Losses Normal?

By Ronald Delegge Stock market volatility creeps up when most investors least expect it. But even more intriguing about the latest upward explosion in equity volatility is that it occurred on small percentage losses in major stock index benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Russell Small Cap 2000. From June 14 to July 9, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) posted a modest decline of just -1.96%. Meanwhile, the VIX soared +44.92% on the S&P’s relatively modest losses over that period. (See chart below) For perspective on how huge of a jump in S&P 500 volatility that represents, the Russell 2000 volatility index increased just +34.72% on a decline of -2.37% in U.S. small cap stocks over the same time frame. Although small caps are riskier than large caps, volatility readings were substantially higher for large caps despite their relative safety. (click to enlarge) Just ahead of the double digit spike in the S&P 500 Volatility Index, we wrote to our Technical Forecast to readers on June 14: The recent May low in the VIX (on May 21 @ $12.11) occurred on the exact same day the S&P 500 reached a new all time high (also May 21 @ $2131). That is no coincidence. The relationship between the VIX and the S&P is extremely intertwined, especially on a daily basis. As the VIX falls, the S&P rises and vice versa. If there is a floor in the VIX, and the relationship is expected to hold, then that means there is a ceiling for the S&P. We are seeing that floor in the VIX and ceiling in the S&P play out in 2015. Although the latest pop in volatility on modest losses could be a prelude of future swings of similar or even larger magnitude, the best way to capitalize is always the same: Be ready. For ETF investors, there are multiple ways to trade short-term volatility. The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( SVXY) aims for -1x daily opposite exposure to the VIX while the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( VIXY) aims for exposure to an index of VIX futures contracts with short-term expirations. Disclosure: No positions Link to the original piece on ETFguide.com Share this article with a colleague

Prudential Launches Unconstrained Bond Fund

By DailyAlts Staff Unconstrained bond funds have a reputation for being risky and imprudent, at least in some corners. After all, the funds are unconstrained – it’s right there in the name. But with interest rates at historic lows and widely expected to begin rising soon, holding a long-only traditional fixed-income portfolio may be the truly imprudent strategy. In light of this, Prudential Investments – a well-established firm with “prudent” right in its name – launched an unconstrained bond fund of its own on July 9: The aptly titled Prudential Unconstrained Bond Fund (MUTF: PUCAX ) . Unconstrained Prudence? Can a fund be truly both “prudential” and unconstrained? Prudential’s new fund seeks positive returns over the long term, regardless of market conditions by investing across multiple fixed-income sectors. The fund’s debt holdings are diversified within the fund, which is a prudent approach to unconstrained investing, and its aim for low correlation to traditional investment strategies – such as long-only fixed income – allows it to bring diversification benefits to existing portfolios. There’s certainly nothing imprudent about that. Minimal Constraints Calling the fund “unconstrained” is a bit of a misnomer, too, since its investment strategies do have some (very minor) constraints: For one, no more than 50% of its assets can be invested in non-U.S. fixed-income investments. The fund is also limited to a maximum of 25% of its assets invested in derivatives. And, “under normal circumstances,” at least 80% of its assets will be invested in debt instruments of some kind – these may include bonds, notes, commercial paper, mortgage-related securities, asset-backed securities, municipal bonds, loan assignments, and money market instruments. Investment Approach The fund is unconstrained in the sense that it’s not judged against a benchmark – and it has a highly flexible strategy that seeks to manage the dollar-weighted average effective duration of its holdings to between -5 and 5 years. The ability to radically adjust its positions, use leverage, and ignore benchmarks allows the fund to pursue its “unconstrained” objective of long-term positive returns regardless of market conditions. The fund’s portfolio managers can shift exposures as opportunities present themselves. Management Prudential Investment Management, a wholly owned subsidiary of Prudential Investments, is the fund’s sub-advisor. Its portfolio managers include Michael J. Collins, Gregory Peters, Richard Piccirillo, and Robert Tipp, all of whom have experience managing other funds at Prudential. Fees and Minimums Shares of the Prudential Unconstrained Bond Fund are available in A (PUCAX), C (MUTF: PUCCX ), and Z (MUTF: PUCZX ) classes. The investment management fee is 0.80% for all share classes, while the A and C shares have respective net-expense ratios of 1.15% and 1.90%, and the Class Z shares have expenses of just 0.90%. The minimum initial investment for the A and C class shares is $2,500, while Z shares’ minimum is “generally none,” according to the fund’s prospectus. For more information, view the fund’s prospectus .

ETFs For Your Core Domestic Stocks Portfolio: 3 Worthy Competitors

Summary Every ETF investor needs to consider what holdings will form the very core of their portfolio. For the portion relating to domestic stocks, in a previous article I featured Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF. In this article, I will examine two other worthy competitors, and analyze how they stack up against VTI. Every investor desirous of developing an ETF-based portfolio does well to start by selecting a few core holdings. In my view, such holdings should offer great diversification along with a rock-bottom cost structure. In a previous article for Seeking Alpha, I featured the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ). I concluded that one should seriously consider VTI as a core holding for the portion of your portfolio devoted to domestic stocks. However, there are several worthy competitors in the marketplace. And, they may be even more worthy if your brokerage offers commission-free trading in these ETFs; particularly if one of your goals is to invest regularly and in small increments. In this article, we will examine two such competitors; the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHB ) and the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: ITOT ). We will compare their structure, expense ratio and other features against VTI, and see how they stack up. Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF While the history of Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW ) traces back over 40 years, the firm is a fairly recent entrant to the ETF market, really getting into the area in a big way in 2009. However, once it committed, it quickly became a formidable competitor. The firm now sports no less than 13 ETFs featuring an expense ratio of .10% or less, as shown here: Heading the list is SCHB, with a market-leading .04% expense ratio. SCHB is based on the Dow Jones Broad Stock Market Index , which tracks the 2,500 largest publicly traded U.S. companies for which pricing information is readily available. This index is a subset of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, but excludes companies defined as micro-caps. This index has a median market cap of $1.9 billion. Currently, there are exactly 2,506 stocks in this index. If you look at the informational table I include later in this article, you will note that SCHB only contains 2,020 stocks. The answer to why this is the case actually offers a helpful insight into how ETFs, particularly those with incredibly low expense ratios, are able to function. Here is the explanation given in the SCHB prospectus : Because it may not be possible or practicable to purchase all of the stocks in the index, the Adviser seeks to track the total return of the index by using statistical sampling techniques. These techniques involve investing in a limited number of index securities which, when taken together, are expected to perform similarly to the index as a whole. Look at that phrase “possible or practicable .” In other words, they are explaining that the trading costs involved in attempting to purchase every security in the index would lead to a greater tracking error (or divergence from the index) than their actual practice of sampling the index. In many ways, SCHB mirrors VTI quite closely. As of the date I researched this article, it has a 1.85% distribution yield, against 1.88% for VTI. The weighting of the Top 10 holdings in each fund is also virtually identical. The fund is significantly smaller than VTI, with “only” $5.0 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) as compared to $55.6 billion for VTI. You will see a small reflection of this in average spread (see definition below) of .03% vs. VTI’s industry-low .01%. This simply reflects the massive daily volume that trades in VTI due to its size. iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF Our second competitor is from the iShares family of ETFs offered by BlackRock, Inc (NYSE: BLK ). BlackRock is another formidable competitor in the sphere of low-cost ETFs, with 19 ETFs featuring an expense ratio of .10% or less . Several of these are Bond ETFs with specific maturity dates so, for the sake of brevity, I show here the 5 ETFs with an expense ratio of .09% or less: (click to enlarge) ITOT is based on the S&P Composite 1500 Index . This index combines the legendary S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P SmallCap 600 indexes, and covers some 90% of the total U.S. market capitalization. It covers companies with market capitalization of approximately $350 million or greater, with a median market cap of $3.3 billion. You may recall that SCHB’s median market cap is $1.9 billion, signifying that it contains a larger percentage of small-caps than does ITOT. NOTE: If you are interested in a nice visual representation of the scope of the various indexes, I found a wonderful graphic on the bogleheads website. ITOT has a 1.80% distribution yield, against 1.88% for VTI. The weighting of the Top 10 holdings is slightly more concentrated than VTI, at 15.12% vs. 14.00%. The fund is the smallest of our 3 competitors, with $2.4 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM). As a result, the average spread (see definition below) is .05% compared to .03% for SCHB and .01% for VTI. Key Comparative Information I have prepared the tables below as a quick visual comparative reference to help you evaluate the three ETFs side-by-side. First, some key high-level information: VTI, SCHB, and ITOT: Key Information VTI SCHB ITOT Assets Under Management (AUM) $55.6 Billion $5.0 Billion $2.4 Billion Index Tracked CRSP Total U.S. Market Index Dow Jones Broad Stock Market Index S&P Composite 1500 Index Number of Holdings 3,824 2,020 1,503 Weighting of Top-10 Holdings 14.00% 13.80% 15.12% Distribution Yield 1.88% 1.85% 1.80% Expense Ratio .05% .04% .07% Average Spread .01% .03% .05% Notes on terms that may be unclear: Distribution Yield refers to the ratio of distributions paid by the fund for the past 12 months divided by the Net Asset Value. Average Spread refers to the average price difference between the price buyers were willing to pay and sellers were willing to sell, averaged over the latest 45 days. Next, the sector breakdown: VTI, SCHB, and ITOT: Sector Breakdown VTI SCHB ITOT Financials 18.90% 17.90% 17.47% Technology 16.10% 18.70% 19.01% Health Care 14.00% 14.80% 14.92% Consumer Discretionary 13.80% 13.70% 13.01% Industrials 12.40% 10.50% 10.68% Consumer Staples 9.70% 8.40% 8.92% Energy 7.30% 6.80% 7.26% Utilities 3.00% 3.00% 3.04% Materials 2.80% 3.40% 3.44% Telecommunications 2.00% 2.00% 2.02% Other 0.00% 0.80% 0.23% TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Summary All three ETFs are worthy competitors. If you look at this YTD chart, you will see that VTI has a slight lead, and all three have outperformed the S&P 500. VTI data by YCharts If you look at this 5-year chart as a longer-term comparison, you will see that SCHB actually has a very slight lead over that time span, again with all three outperforming the S&P 500. VTI data by YCharts Setting aside the question of whether you can trade a particular ETF commission-free, here is my rating: VTI : In my mind, it was a very close battle between VTI and SCHB. Certainly, SCHB’s stunning .04% expense ratio is not to be ignored. Further, SCHB has slightly edged out VTI over the past 5 years. However, VTI’s slightly higher distribution ratio, huge size, extremely competitive .05% expense ratio, broader market coverage and recent outperformance nudge it to the #1 spot in my evaluation. SCHB : As I mention, this was a very close call. I think Schwab has done an incredible job putting together a world-class ETF for this category. I find it of no small note that SCHB has slightly edged out VTI over the past 5 years and its low expense ratio will doubtless make it extremely competitive as time moves forward. ITOT : Well, in a comparison of 3, one has to come out third. In this extremely tough head-to-head showdown, ITOT’s smaller size, .07% expense ratio and slight comparative underperformance weigh against it. On the other hand, its slight tilt toward large-caps might lower your risk in the event of a market downturn. I must say, however, that the question of which ETF you can trade commission-free may be the ultimate decider for you. Particularly will this come into play if regular, incremental, investments form a large part of your plan. Happy investing! Disclosure: I am/we are long VTI, ITOT. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: I am not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes, and to consult with their personal tax or financial advisors as to its applicability to their circumstances. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.