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Prime Minister Tsipras Resigned, The Greek Parody Is Set To Continue

Summary Prime minister Tsipras resigned, new elections are expected in September. A new anti-austerity Popular Unity party to be created. GREK investors should expect increased share price volatility and potentially new lows. The Greek parody seemed to come to an end finally. But the recent developments show that another act has only begun. Although opponents of the austerity measures were victorious in the referendum that took place in early July, the Greek government agreed to adopt reforms and austerity measures demanded by the creditors, in order to avoid the looming state bankruptcy. On July 15, the Greek parliament approved bailout measures with 229 out of the total of 300 votes. The measures included increase of value added tax, limits on public spending and reform of the pension system. As a result, €86 billion should be provided to Greece over the next three years. The reaction of the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEARCA: GREK ) was positive at first, but the share price decline resumed very quickly due to the uncertainty as to whether the new financial package for Greece will be approved by the creditors. There are 19 countries in the eurozone and in 8 of them (Austria, Germany, Greece, Estonia, Finland, France, Latvia, Slovakia) the parliament had to decide whether the country will vote for or against the bailout package. Things started to look brighter in August, as it began to be clear that the bailout package will be approved. On August 18, Fitch upgraded the Greek credit rating to CCC, on August 19, the German parliament approved the bailout package. Germany was the last country to approve the package. It seemed like the Greek problem has been resolved (swept under the carpet) for now. But another of the countless surprises was prepared by the Greek government on August 20, when prime minister Tsipras resigned . According to Reuters, the new elections should take place on September 20. Tsipras wants to support his position and get rid of the opposition inside his own party. According to BBC , 25 members of Syriza plan to create a new Popular Unity party, led by the former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis. The situation may get really complicated, as the July referendum showed that a majority of Greeks opposes the austerity measures. If the new anti-austerity party gains too much power, all the bailout process may be endangered. After Tsipras won elections in January 2015, he said that his government doesn’t feel obliged to fulfill commitments of former Greek governments. If the new government behaves the same way, the Greek parody may start over again. Source: own calculations, using data of YahooFinance It is highly probable that the relatively calm couple of weeks have ended for GREK. Volatility measured by the 10-day moving coefficient of variation (chart above) was relatively low over the last couple of weeks, as it ranged from 1% to 4%. But GREK investors should prepare for another turbulent period ahead. GREK’s share price development will be driven mainly by the pre-election polls. The most vulnerable part of GREK’s portfolio continues to be shares of Greek banks, however their cumulative weight declined to approximately 12%. The banks are in a complicated situation, as the eurozone finance ministers declared that bail-in of depositors will be explicitly excluded. It means that the Cypriot scenario shouldn’t repeat in Greece. But the bondholders are endangered. This decision should prevent bank runs and increase the trust of depositors in Greek banks. On the other hand, Greek banks will have even bigger problems to raise money via bond markets. Conclusion The situation in Greece is getting more complicated once again. If the anti-austerity parties win the coming elections, it is hard to predict what may happen. GREK investors should be prepared for another weeks of increased share price volatility and it is quite possible that new lows will be created. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

3 Country ETFs Impacted By China’s Currency Devaluation

Wise were those analysts who had foreseen the start of a currency war post China’s yuan devaluation story. China shook the global markets on August 11 when its policymakers devalued the country’s currency by 2% against the greenback to boost its sagging exports. This resulted in the largest single-day decline since the historical devaluation in 1994 . Though the Chinese central bank defended its currency intervention ‘as a free-market reform’, global experts’ apprehensions of a currency war in the near future, especially among its Asian neighbors, are turning into a reality. Most export-centric economies will likely be forced to depreciate their currencies to stave off competition and rev up their exports. And analysts were not wrong at all, as this currency war is already underway. Let’s take a look at the country ETFs which were hit hard by the yuan devaluation. Vietnam To fight against the dark impact on its exports, Vietnam weakened its currency, dong, on August 19. This was the third time that the country devalued its currency this year and the second time in a week. The trading band has now has been widened to 3% from 2%, per Reuters. Like China, Vietnam also acts as a low-cost producer and earned some edge over China in recent times, as Chinese wages are on the rise. With a stronger currency, Vietnam would lose this competitive advantage. Not only exports, Vietnam is unable to sell products to domestic consumers due to the surge in cheaper Chinese imports, resulting in a widening trade deficit. In the first seven months of 2015, deficit in trade with China was $19.33 billion, worse than $14.88 billion of deficit in the year-ago period, according to Reuters . Following the latest depreciation in currency, dong fell 4.5% in interbank on August 18. In the last one month, the greenback gained 2.3% against dong. The Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSEARCA: VNM ) – the pure play on Vietnam – lost about 5% in the last five trading sessions. Malaysia The Malaysian equity market has been an impacted area post the yuan devaluation. Also, a falling oil price marred the stocks of oil-rich Malaysia, which happens to be one of the largest Asian crude exporters. Political crisis is another cause of concern for Malaysia. On the other hand, China’s currency devaluation hurt its competiveness as an exporter. This, coupled with a strong U.S. dollar amid the looming Fed rate hike, recently sent Malaysia’s currency, ringgit, to a 17-year low. This resulted in the depletion of Malaysia’s foreign exchange reserves, and in turn soured investors’ mood toward Malaysian investing. Ringgit fell over 7% in the last one month against the U.S. dollar. Pure play-Malaysia ETF, the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (NYSEARCA: EWM ), was off 17.9% in the last one month (as of August 20, 2015). Indonesia Following the yuan move on August 11, Indonesia’s currency, rupiah, tumbled the most in 2015. This currency also touched a 17-year low after the yuan episode. Rupiah was the second worst-performing Asian currency this year. The country was already grappling with weak exports and a five-year low GDP growth. Indonesia ETF, the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (NYSEARCA: EIDO ), was down over 14% in the last one month. Original Post

The Duke Energy Train Keeps Rolling Along

Summary Duke Energy’s second quarter 2015 EPS of $0.95 missed estimates by $0.04, while Revenue topped $5.2 billion. The company’s residential retail energy market declined as a result of more efficient energy practices and the company’s international business segment declined due to issues in Brazil. I believe Duke Energy’s stock presents a safe dividend play with opportunity for slow stock appreciation going forward. On August 6th, 2015, Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK ) reported second quarter of 2015 earnings results and provided an update on the company’s four financial objectives for 2015 and beyond-(1) current year earnings guidance, (2) long-term earnings growth, (3) dividend growth, and (4) balance sheet strength. In this article, I will review the company’s four financial objectives and analyze the company’s progress in obtaining them. The company reaffirmed its outlook in achieving 2015 earnings per share within guidance range of $4.55 and $4.75 The company expects to achieve this range despite capital expenditures estimated to fall within the range of $7.4 and $7.8 billion for the year. Through the first half of 2015, the company had $3.2 billion in capital expenditures putting the annualized projection to $6.4 billion. While the capital expenditures projection is lagging behind projections, management expects the economic development usage of the expenditures to result in almost 5,000 new jobs as the company makes commitments to pursue alternative energy generation sources. Retail load growth expectations of 0.5% to 1.0% for the year remain unchanged from the previous quarter. The company saw higher weather-normal retail volumes of 1.7% compared to 2014 and favorable weather driven by warmer than normal temperatures, primarily in the Carolinas. This weather favorability helped the residential market, which is experiencing lower usage due to changes in energy efficiency and conservation and higher use of multi-family housing. The company originally expected to have 700M average shares outstanding at 12/31/2015. However, in connection with the transaction to sell the Midwest Generation business to Dynegy, the company completed a $1.5 billion accelerated stock repurchase program. After this repurchase, the company’s weighted-average shares of Duke Energy common stock outstanding in 2015 is expected to be approximately 695 million instead. With the company not having any planned equity issuances through 2017, this will have a positive impact on the EPS for 2015. We saw $65 per barrel average Brent crude price for 2015. Oil price projections have remained consistent to projections as the expected Brent crude oil prices have increased from EIA’s May 2015 report of $61 to $57 in July 2015’s report . The joint venture, National Menthol Company (NMC), which runs through 2032, is 25% owned by Duke Energy. NMC’s earnings are positively correlated with crude oil prices and an approximate $10 per barrel change in the average annual price of Brent crude oil has roughly a $0.01 to $0.02 EPS impact annually. A dive in the price of Brent crude prices could present a short-term problem for Duke Energy. There was an exchange rate of approximately 2.85 BRL/US dollar. The exchange rate has increased above this expected rate to $3.48 on 8/20/2015 as the Brazilian economy struggles and the US economy rebounds. The continued drought conditions, struggling Brazilian economy, and weaker foreign currency exchange rates are the largest factors behind the $0.13 year-over-year quarterly earnings per share decline in the company’s international segment. The ongoing drought in the country has caused the company to dispatch higher cost thermal generation instead of the low cost hydro generation. Additionally, the struggling economy has caused the company to lower demand growth for 2015 between 0% and 2%, which is much lower than the greater than 3% seen over the past several years. Fortunately, the continued weakness in the company’s international business has been offset by the strength in the regulated utility business. Deliver earnings per share growth of 4% to 6% through 2017 To achieve this, management expects retail load growth of 1% going forward. The company has been consistent with a 0.6% retail load growth from 2012 and 2014. Given the lower usage being seen due to changes in energy efficiency and conservation and higher use of multi-family housing, I think it is going to be very difficult for the company to achieve a 1% growth going forward. I think it is going to be difficult to achieve because of the lower energy usages in homes. I don’t see this trend reversing and allowing this 1% growth rate to be achieved. I definitely see this being a negative for the company going forward as achieving this growth without favorable weather is going to be difficult. The company expects total wholesale net margin to increase due to the new 20-year contract with NCEMC at Duke Energy Progress (began in 2013) and 18-year contract with Central EMC at Duke Energy Carolinas growing to a load of 900MW in 2019 from 115MW in 2013. FY2015’s total wholesale net margin is expected to be approximately $1.1 billion with an anticipated 5% compound annual growth rate. Regulated earnings base growth is expected to follow the $2 billion growth trend in 2015 that was seen in 2014. Continue growing the dividend within a 65% to 70% target payout ratio On July 8th, 2015, Duke Energy declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.825 per share, increase of 3.8% from the prior dividend of $0.795. Management expects the dividend to continue to rise in the future. This 3.8% increase was higher than the 2% increase year-over-year expected. With the Company achieving a payout ratio close to 70% and management’s commitment to paying out a quarterly dividend to investors, I do not see the company’s current 4.5% dividend yield to be at risk. Management has paid 89 consecutive years of dividends with increases coming the past 7 years. This is largely possible due to the Company’s strong balance sheet and no planned equity issuances through 2017. In addition, the company announced a strategically tax-efficient way to repatriate $2.7 billion back to the U.S. during the fourth quarter 2014 earnings call, which will help fuel the dividend increases going forward. Maintain strong, investment-grade credit ratings. While the company’s credit rating was recently upgraded by S&P, I believe there are three risks for the company going forward. The exposure to Brazil is a significant risk for the company’s future, which was seen in the 2014 and early 2015 financial results. In these releases, there was a decrease in sales volume as well as higher purchased power costs due to the interruptions in the hydrology production. Per the earning’s call, they are assuming normal hydrology despite the rainy season starting slowly. Brazil is a major story to follow for Duke Energy in 2015 and beyond as the Company is predicting EPS growth from this business segment despite recent downward trends in profits there as well as the Brazilian economy. I think the company will have difficulty increasing the retail load growth to 1% given the increased technologies and social initiatives to decrease electric use. Oil prices will continue to be a wild card going forward. Forecasting a price on such a volatile asset is a difficult task. If oil prices continue to fluctuate widely, it will significantly impact the company’s bottom line. Conclusion: Duke Energy Corporation faces some difficult obstacles including a slowing Brazilian economy, lower residential energy usage, and volatile oil prices; however, I believe that the company gave conservative and very obtainable estimates in each of the key assumptions used to allow the company to meet its financial objectives for FY 2015 and beyond. While I don’t see Duke Energy being a rapid growth story going forward which can be seen in the lagging capital expenditures, I do believe they have the ability to present slow stock appreciation with the safety of a consistent dividend. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.