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Time Your Buys Like A Pro

By Jonathan Rodriguez For traditional buy-and-hold investors, market timing probably doesn’t mean much. But here’s the thing: It should. Believe it or not, many smart people are investing the wrong way every single day. These investors see a stock on the rise and chase shares when everyone else is buying – and that means they’re often buying too high. And then, when the market sells off, they dump shares along with everyone else – often at too low a price. Professional traders know this and mint fortunes off the herd. But by using one simple indicator, you can time your entries alongside the elite traders. Once you’ve identified a quality stock, the first step is to buy shares at the lowest price you can. You see, stocks never go up or down in a straight line. When a stock trends upward, it ascends the chart in waves. Shares rally under momentum and fall on profit taking. In order to buy the dips and sell the rallies, I use one of my favorite technical indicators: Bollinger Bands. Developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, Bollinger Bands are volatility bands placed above and below a stock’s moving average. The bands’ values are based on standard deviations from the moving average. You can select any moving average and deviation, but traders typically use the 20-day moving average (DMA) and set the Bollinger Bands at two standard deviations above and below the DMA. I love Bollinger Bands because they combine several technical tools into an easy-to-use trend indicator. And because the bands utilize standard deviations, they adjust automatically for rapid changes in volatility. Once the bands are set, price action bounces between the upper and lower band as momentum swings. The idea is to buy shares as they “tag” the lower band and sell as they tag the upper band. Let’s look at an applied example. Here’s a one-year chart of Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA ), one of 2015’s hottest stocks. Over the last year, shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 60%. As you can see, price action is contained between the Bollinger Bands. And by timing your entry on a dip to the lower band, you can increase your profits by several percentage points. On the chart, you’ll notice three distinct buy signals: December 2014-January 2015, May-June 2015, and August 2015. After executing a buy, you can sell on the upper band tag or hold until you’ve hit your profit target. Now, on a pricier large-cap stock, a few percentage points in profit might not mean much. But if you’re an options trader or short-term trader, those points can be the difference between small gains and big money. And the bands become even more valuable when trading volatile small-cap and mid-cap stocks. Bottom line: Don’t chase red-hot stocks at recent highs. Use Bollinger Bands to time the dips and get more bang for your buck. Original Post

$100,000 Investment Into Yearly Income: The Southern Company Example

Summary A dividend strategy is essentially turning investment into a yearly income stream. Boring utilities stocks can help you generate great levels of wealth. Here is the way it can work for you. In the article “Can A $100K Investment Produce A $50K Yearly Income? Walking The Model Step By Step” I introduced a model to generate an ongoing income steam through initial investment of $100,000 and by reinventing the net dividend flow. There were many comments and feedbacks to this model and I thank all commentators for their good inputs. One key concern that was raised was that achieving a $100,000 worth of savings is almost an impossible challenge these days. Well, I will fool you not. Getting to a significant amount of wealth is not an easy task. It requires both discipline and setting straight the priorities. There is no magic here. In order to achieve significant amount of savings one must put aside a portion of his income. These amounts can be either fixed or it can change from week to week or month to month. Nevertheless there should be constant contribution. In order to achieve something there must be a goal. A goal should be set realistically based on the ability to routinely contribute to the accumulated wealth. In the next example I will continue to use the $100,000 as the goal. After we set our mindset straight and agreed to take responsibility over our spending and savings, and after we set up a goal that is reasonable to achieve, how can we generate wealth using dividend investing strategy? The example of The Southern Company I decided to use The Southern Company (NYSE: SO ) as an example as it is conceived as a boring type of investment. It is less exciting from the growth machines out there but it can definitely fit to our purpose of generating wealth. SO is a holding company that operates in the South East counties of the U.S. It owns Alabama Power Company, Georgia Power Company, Gulf Power Company, and Mississippi Power Company, each of which operates as a public utility company. SO is the 16th largest utility company in the world, and the fourth largest in the U.S. It serves more than 4.5 million customers in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi. The company was founded back in 1945 and began paying quarterly dividends in 1972. SO never had a dividend cut and has been steadily increasing its dividend since the year 2002. An investor who decided back in November 2005 (ten years ago) to regularly invest in SO, to routinely invest $450 per month and buy more shares. And alongside during this period, each quarter he reinvested the dividends after tax to buy more of SO’s shares he could have reached the $100,000 goal by the end of 2014. Even after the 2015 correction in the Utilities’ stock prices he would have reached the goal again by the month of September 2015. It means that based on these particular assumptions the goal was achieve after nine years. Let’s see how it worked in more details. The investment Since SO paid a quarterly dividend through the assumed period, the investment is built out of two elements: the first one is the monthly contributions of a fixed $450. That means yearly contributions of $5,400 each year. The second element is the dividends net of 25% tax rate which have constantly grew from year to year. The higher dividends together with the higher number of accumulated shares delivered an everlasting growing purchasing power to buy more shares. As we can see in the next graph, during the recent years the dividend became a significant portion of the yearly investment and by 2014 it was about 40% of the $8,568 yearly investment. The shares accumulation The monthly contributions allowed to constantly increase the amount of shares but the accumulation was highly dependent on the share price. The next graph shows the yearly stock price average during the recent ten years alongside the accumulated number of shares during each period. At times of high stock price the accumulation power was lower. The situation of the zero interest rate brought the stock price to recent highs and by that reduced the buying power of the routine contributions. In a scenario of a hiking interest rate we might see SO’s stock price going down and by that a fix accumulation will allow to purchase more shares. The total investment value: The dividend yield went down from the levels of 6-7% in the years 2005-2009 to the levels of 5% in the recent years due to the stock price hike. But this exact hike also drove the holding value to higher levels and led the total value to exceed $100,000 by December 2014. If indeed the interest rate hike will arrive soon (and it depends how high it would reach in the next couple of years) the value of the portfolio will be highly volatile and might go down in value. The income: Which brings us to the last piece. The accumulated holding at the value of $100,000 generates in 2015 a yearly net income of $3,566. As this machine will continue to work it would grow its income power even higher. Even if the stock price will go down due to a FED’s action the power of time and reinvestment will allow to accelerate the income machine even faster (as lower stock price allows to accumulate more shares). If you are interested in the excel model behind this example you can find it here . Conclusions: Even a boring type of investment like SO can serve well the patient investor to generate wealth using a sound dividend investment strategy. Dividend strategy cannot depend on a sole stock and should be based on a diversified portfolio. The monthly contributions should be aimed towards high quality stocks that face temporary headwinds but have long and proven history. Nowadays this list may include companies like Chevron (NYSE: CVX ), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP ), Deere & Company (NYSE: DE ), Eaton (NYSE: ETN ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ), HCP (NYSE: HCP ) and other names from the Industrial sector. A consistent strategy of constant contributions and dividends reinvestment will allow to obtain sound results overtime. There would be those who would criticize the length of the time required to achieve the goal at it was shown in this example. As mentioned earlier: there is no magic here. In order to accelerate the accumulation and reduce the length of time the monthly contributions should be higher. For example, a monthly contribution of a $1,000 would have reduce the time by ~40% allowing the goal to be achieved in early 2011 or after six and a half years. There are highly subjective decisions to be made and it will vary from one person to the other, but if the mindset should be set to take responsibility over your financials, a sound goal should be set and the only thing left is to execute the strategy. Happy investing.

Retail ETFs Hit Hard By Soft September Sales

September seems to be a doomed month as it repeatedly ascertained the lost growth momentum in the U.S. economy. First, soft job and manufacturing data and then a weaker-than-expected retail sales report reconfirmed that the impetus had gone astray. Retail sales (barring autos) dived 0.3% in September, the largest decline since January, and below economists’ expectation of a decline of just 0.1%. Though consumers spent on cars and at food joints, sales targeted at e-commerce, general-merchandise stores, home centers, grocery stores, electronics stores and appliances lacked, per the source. Retail sales barring automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services dropped 0.1% after 0.2% expansion in August. Overall, retail sales nudged up 0.1% on cheaper fuel prices against August sales which were revised down from 0.2% gain to flat. As per Retail Dive , hurricane in the Southeast spoilt sales in that region while a soothing weather weighed on fall clothing purchases. Fragile wage growth appears another factor behind this sales slump. Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. GDP, this blow to retail sales remains a matter of concern. This is more so as consumers saved a considerable amount from low fuel prices. But these savings are hardly being spent at stores. This proves that the last recession is still fresh in the memory of consumers, who are extra cautious about loosening their purse strings for discretionary purchases. However, autos had a safe journey in September, with sales expanding 1.7% in the month and representing the largest gains since May, per Bloomberg. All the three retail ETFs – SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT ), Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH ) and PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PMR ) – closed in the negative following the somber retail sales data. Weak earnings guidance from retail-behemoth Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) also did substantial damage to the sector. The funds were off about 1%, 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. While the results surely caught many investors off guard, we should wait for another month before drawing a conclusion on the momentum level in the U.S. economy. After all, the ongoing fourth quarter embraces the all-important holiday season, which is apparently the key selling-season for retailers. Plus, with the tentative timeline of the Fed rate hike shifting back to not before early 2016, U.S. consumers will see cheap money inflows for some more months. A few more months of low-rate environment in turn may persuade consumers to spend at stores rather than stuffing energy savings in their bank accounts. Muted job growth is an issue; but probably it’s too early to take a call on the fate of retail sales. Original Post