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Quant Strategies – YTD Performance Update

Now, that equity markets have experienced a nice 10%+ correction this year I thought it would be of value to look at the performance of various quant strategies year to date, especially during a tough year for stocks as 2015 has been. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2014. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices (highlighted in yellow). In table above, strategies that have outperformed their benchmark indices are shown in green. As you may expect, the results are mixed, some strategies outperformed, some did not. 4 of the 7 equity strategies listed outperformed both U.S. and International stocks. The consumer staples value strategy (CS Value) has led the way with a 14% YTD return plus a very low drawdown. The laggard has been trending value (TV2) at -9.59%. This is not surprising when you look at the historical data. Momentum strategies can be quite volatile. Microcaps have also done well at 8.88% YTD. Enhanced Yield (EY) and Utility value have also lagged in performance. The ‘build your own index’ strategy (large SHY) has outperformed the SPY but with higher drawdown. Yield strategies in general have had a rough time in 2015. I also listed the TAA bond strategy in the table which has slightly underperformed the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) and outperformed the V anguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ: BNDX ). That’s it. A quick look at some 2015 YTD performance figures for various quant strategies. In my next post I’ll take a look at a very simple way to further enhance quant strategy performance. Share this article with a colleague

ITC Holdings: Growth Comes At A Price

Summary Transmissions business carries less risk and higher allowed returns than other utilities. Dividend is slated to grow at a 10-15% annual pace through 2018 by management. ITC Holdings is highly leveraged and burns through cash – a change to allowed returns could be disastrous. ITC Holdings (NYSE: ITC ) is the largest electricity transmission company in the United States, operating out of the Midwest. Current operations sprawl out from the center of the country, impacting dozens of states. Unlike your typical regulated electric utility that directly produces energy to provide electricity to customers, ITC focuses fully on grid infrastructure. Electric transmission assets have been historically under-maintained, resulting in significant transmission constraints and stress on ageing equipment. To combat this, the regulatory environment has shifted to companies like ITC to fix these issues while receiving a stable, regulated rate of return. Given ITC’s estimates of $160-240B in additional necessary upgrades to infrastructure by 2030, substantial opportunity exists for utilities to earn a fair return on invested capital upgrading these assets. This business model has been a long-term outperformer. Looking back ten years, shares have trounced utility peers but have begun to underperform recently. Is this a healthy needed sell-off or an opportunity for investors to buy in before the next leg up in share price? Not Your Grandfather’s Utility Your typical state-regulated, power-producing utility has a tough time. Rates it can charge are set at fixed rates in between rate cases it makes with state regulators, hopefully with various riders in place that allow recovery of necessary capital expenditures or changes in commodity prices. In nearly every case, electric utilities experience “regulatory lag” – a gap between capital spending and eventual recovery. Disallowances are always a risk. Further exasperating utility management, a utility might make an investment assuming a return on equity that never materializes or an incredibly long amortization period that stretches out the timeline of recovery. Political gamesmanship between the utility, regulators, and the public that bears the costs is always present. ITC Holdings is instead governed by FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Working with the Feds directly avoids a large portion of the games played in the rate-making process. Regulatory lag isn’t as much of a problem as FERC rate-setting is forward-looking with annual adjustments. Further benefitting ITC is the much higher allowed returns on transmission infrastructure. Most publicly-traded utilities have seen their allowed return on equities plummet over the past decade to approximately 10%, give or take a half percentage either way. Allowed returns for transmission companies like ITC is in the 12% range depending on region. In a nutshell, this makes ITC a much more profitable business than most utility peers, with profit and operating margins that energy producers like Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ) could only dream of. In spite of risk to drops in allowed return on equity (FERC dropped allowed return on equity on New England assets to 11.7%, setting off warning bells across transmission utilities), the company should enjoy meaningful returns above and beyond standard utilities for some time. Further cementing ITC’s advantages over electric utilities, transmission assets are simple. By and large, they are simply pole and wire assets with supporting infrastructure. The environmental and regulatory risk simply isn’t as present as it is for power-generating utilities. There is no nuclear waste requiring disposal or possible coal ash basin breaches to worry about. Operating Earnings The growth story is obvious here; you won’t find many other companies in the utilities segment growing at over 12% compound annual growth rate. Annual revenue growth is expected to continue at this pace over the next five years as ITC continues to take on projects. Operations and maintenance expenses have actually stayed relatively flat, indicative that maintenance costs are minimal for new transmission infrastructure once updated. Consistently better than 50% operating margins are stellar and more indicative of a company like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) than a regulated utility. Getting a piece of these strong results doesn’t come cheap, because at more than 13x ttm EV/EBITDA, shares trade at a 30% premium to the broader utility industry. Serial Debtor Issue? If anything should concern investors, it is the rapid rise of the company’s debt. The company has breached $4B in debt compared to just $2.5B in 2010. Net debt/EBITDA of slightly over 5x has held steady as ITC’s earnings have grown as well, but this is a substantial amount of leverage as the company pours significant money into capital expenditures. Credit ratings are stable investment grade, but all ratings agencies note the risks in this heavy spending. A deterioration in the company’s regulatory or operating environment (increased regulatory lag, lowered allowed return on equity by regulators, litigation, rising interest rates) could stunt ITC’s cash flow which would hamstring further investment. Any company that perpetually issues hundreds of millions in debt year after year, especially one as small as ITC Holdings, should make investors pause and consider possible implications. Conclusion The small current dividend yield of 2.26% shouldn’t scare away investors. Per management’s 2014-2018 guidance, 10-15% annual dividend increases are to be expected. If management executes and hits the high end of this dividend growth target (as it did in 2015), your yield-on-cost would be 3.43% at the end of 2018, which would be a respectable number that you may not get by buying a slow-growing 3% yielder today. Additionally, ITC’s share repurchase program is rather unique in the utility industry, one that is most often plagued by dilutive equity issuance every few years that is never offset by buyback programs. However, the company’s high degree of leverage, price premium to other utilities, risk of more competition for projects, and uncertainty regarding future allowed returns on electric transmission infrastructure weigh heavily on my ability to issue a buy recommendation.

Suburban Propane: Better Alternative To AmeriGas

Summary Recent operating history between the two companies is incredibly similar. Long term, shares have traded in tandem. However, Suburban Propane has diverged recently. SPH seems better valued on most valuation methods. If you have to have one, choose the better value. My research on AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU ) took a little heat from Seeking Alpha readers. So rather than presenting just the negative case for AmeriGas, I’d like to show Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE: SPH ) as a possible, better alternative for investors looking to establish a new position in companies within this industry. Suburban Propane Partners is a distributor of propane and various refined fuels to more than a million customers throughout the United States by way of its extensive distribution network. The vast majority of the company’s sales are to residential customers who have very few alternatives for heating and cooking within their homes. While propane is generally more expensive on a BTU basis than alternatives like natural gas, it does have the advantage of being easily liquefied and transported. This characteristic makes it ideal to be sold to customers in rural areas with no alternatives other than electric heat or fuel oil. However, unlike peers like AmeriGas Partners, Suburban has diversified its operations to some degree. The company also sells fuel oil, kerosene, and diesel fuel (direct competitors of propane) in the Northeast and also sells natural gas and electricity in the deregulated New York and Pennsylvania markets. While the Propane segment constituted more than 80% of 2014 revenues ($1.6B of $1.9B), the added diversification here should let investors sleep a little bit better at night than pure-play alternatives in the sector. Operating Results Revenue is set to fall dramatically in 2015 because of cheap propane prices as propane reached a high of $3.69/gallon in February of 2014 compared to a high of $2.37/gallon in January of 2015. Investors should note that Suburban’s fiscal year ends at the end of September, so there is no risk to the above estimates due to a spike in price as we start the winter heating season. Operating income has remained stable, however, as the company passes along the costs of the underlying commodity to consumers, taking a fairly fixed margin. In periods of lower prices, like what occurred in 2015, SPH can actually achieve higher gross margins as there is little risk of consumers reducing consumption or switching to alternatives. Expected 2015 operating margins are in line with AmeriGas. From a cash flow perspective, the story here is also very similar to AmeriGas. Both businesses have very little in the way of capital expenditures, so the vast majority of distributions go to shareholders. Both companies made game-changing acquisitions in 2011/2012, resulting in larger cash flows in following years. As a refresher, AmeriGas picked up Heritage Propane and Suburban bought Inergy Propane. At face value, Suburban got a better deal, paying about 10x EBITDA while AmeriGas coughed up 11x for similar assets. Both deals were built around the same idea: larger customer base, new geographies, increased economies of scale resulting in synergies, etc. One area of concern for investors to consider when weighing Suburban Propane versus AmeriGas is the leverage involved. While Suburban has the smaller debt load, it is also a smaller company. Suburban coughed up 46% of 2014 operating income towards interest payments compared to 35% for AmeriGas. This has been a long-term trend that has likely contributed to the premium AmeriGas shares have generally commanded compared to Suburban. SPH will likely take the opportunity to refinance its 7.375% senior notes due 2020 and 2021 in a few years ($750M in face value) when there are no penalties on calling at face value if interest rates remain low for interest rate savings. If the bond market remains as it is for the next few years, the company will be able to shave 1.5% off the interest rates assuming similar terms. This will result in tens of millions in savings in annual interest expense, which could free up cash flow for debt retirement or dividend increases if management chooses to do so. Conclusion Over the past two years, SPH has diverged significantly from its larger peer, APU. They’ve largely traded at similar yields (7.44% five-year average for Suburban, 6.99% average yield for AmeriGas), but this spread has expanded noticeably over the past year. This premium has likely widened due to investors buying into the dividend growth at AmeriGas. Investors appear to be ignoring the sustainability of those increases going forward. Suburban has taken the safer route, electing to hold the dividend stable rather than increase the payout in an industry that is facing dramatic change. TTM profit and operating margins remain higher at Suburban Propane, and the company appears to be the better bargain on metrics like Enterprise Value/EBITDA. Because of this disconnect, investors can now capture over 10% yield on Suburban Propane compared to AmeriGas’ 8.3% yield. In my opinion, these two will return to historical yield spreads once the market realizes large future dividend increases are off the table for both. If this is the case, investors in Suburban Propane should enjoy higher payouts while having better preservation of their initial capital investment compared to AmeriGas if buying at current share prices. So, for investors that really do want exposure to this market segment and are wanting to start a new position, I believe Suburban Propane is the better value play here over the next five years. You would be buying into a better yield today dollar for dollar, better margins, a little added business diversification through the fuel oil/deregulated energy business segments, and be partnering with a management that has a less aggressive style.