Tag Archives: author

Investment Activity And The Illusion Of Control In Exchange For Low Real Returns

Study after study shows that more investment activity is correlated only with higher fees and lower real, real returns. Activity is the illusion of control in exchange for lower real, real returns. You don’t want to be irrationally long term, which usually results in huge amounts of short-term permanent loss risk. But you also don’t want to be so short term that you take no risk. The best way to reduce taxes and fees in your portfolio is to take a long-term perspective. Again, a multi-year or cyclical time frame blends perfectly with maximizing your real, real returns. I take a cyclical view on things. This means I can sometimes go years without making big changes in my views or portfolio. This is a very intentional construct, and I think it’s one that most people should adhere to. After all, you don’t want to be irrationally long term , which usually results in huge amounts of short-term permanent loss risk. But you also don’t want to be so short term that you take no risk. As we find with so many things in life, moderation is the key. Hence, my cyclical or multi-year perspective on things. Resolving this temporal problem isn’t the only reason for this, though. We know that taxes and fees are two of the most important frictions in a portfolio. And the best way to reduce taxes and fees is to take a long-term perspective. Again, a multi-year or cyclical time frame blends perfectly with maximizing your real, real returns . Of course, this is easier said than done. We live in a world dominated by “What have you done for me lately” narratives. And worse, we are confronted with our own biases that make us feel comfortable when we’re doing something. After all, letting your portfolio float in the wind feels very uncontrolled, and oftentimes, uncomfortable. Activity is the way in which we try to “control” the markets. Of course, you can’t control the decisions of other market participants. And study after study shows that more activity is correlated only with higher fees and lower real, real returns. Yet, the allure of greater control pulls us in. Activity is the illusion of control in exchange for lower real, real returns. Luckily, there is a happy medium here. There is no need to be irrationally long term or short term. But it takes a great amount of discipline to reject the illusion that activity creates control. For most, that illusion (and the sales pitch of “market-beating returns” that often goes with it) is too enticing to reject.

Portfolio Construction Techniques: A Brief Review

Summary The mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of the so-called Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. Two main approaches to the problem may be identified: a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies and emphasize capturing investment factors in a transparent way. The article does not determine which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique cannot be determined a priori. Introduction How to allocate capital across different asset classes is a key decision that all investors are required to make. It is widely accepted that holding one or few assets is not advisable, as the proverb “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” suggests. Hence, practitioners recommend their clients to build portfolios of assets in order to benefit from the effects of diversification. An investor’s portfolio is defined as his/her collection of investment assets. Generally, investors make two types of decisions in constructing portfolios. The first one is called asset allocation, namely the choice among different asset classes. The second one is defined security selection, namely the choice of which particular securities to hold within each asset class. Moreover, portfolio construction could follow two kinds of approaches, namely a top-down or a bottom-up approach. The former consists in facing the asset allocation and security selection choices exactly in this order. The latter inverts the flow of actions, starting from security selection. No matter the kind of approach, investors do need a precise rule to follow when building a portfolio. In fact, the choice of asset classes and/or of securities has to be done rationally. The range of existing strategies is considerably wide. Indeed, one may allocate his/her own capital by splitting it equally among assets, optimizing several functions and/or applying some constraints. Every day in the asset management industry, there are plenty of strategies that are proposed to investors all over the world. The aim of this article is to provide the reader with a comprehensive summary of those. Static and Dynamic Optimization Techniques To begin with, it is worth distinguishing the existing portfolio optimization techniques by the nature of their optimization process. In particular, static and dynamic processes are considered. In the former case, the structure of a portfolio is chosen once for all at the beginning of the period. In the latter case, the structure of the portfolio is continuously adjusted (for a detailed survey on this literature, see Mossin (1968), Samuelson (1969), Merton (1969, 1971), Campbell et al (2003), Campbell & Viceira (2002). Maillard (2011) reports that for highly risk-averse investors, the difference between the two is moderate, whereas it is larger for investors who are less risk averse. Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization Within the static models, it is common knowledge that the mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of so-called Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). In fact, Markowitz ( 1952 , 1959 ) presents a revolutionary framework based on the mean and variance of a portfolio of “N” assets. In particular, he claims that if investors care only about mean and variance, they would hold the same portfolio of risky assets, combined with cash holdings, whose proportion depends on their risk aversion. Despite of its wide success, this theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. In fact, the true model parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from the data, resulting in several estimation error problems. The subsequent literature has focused on improving the mean-variance framework in several ways. However, two main approaches to the problem may be identified, namely a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Two Approaches As far as the former is concerned, it is worth reporting several studies. For instance, Goldfarb & Iyengar (2003) and Garlappi et al. (2007) provide robust formulations to contrast the sensitivity of the optimal portfolio to statistical and modelling errors in the estimates of the relevant parameters. In addition, Lee (1977) and Kraus & Litzenberger (1976) present alternative portfolio theories that include more moments such as skewness; Fama (1965) and Elton & Gruber (1974) are more accurate in describing the distribution of return, while Best & Grauer (1992), Chan et al. (1999) and Ledoit & Wolf (2004a, 2004b) focus on methods that aim to reduce the estimation error of the covariance matrix. Other approaches involve the application of some constraints. MacKinlay & Pastor (2000) impose constraints on moments of assets returns, Jagannathan & Ma (2003) adopt short-sale constraints, Chekhlov et al (2000) drawdown constraints, Jorion (2002) tracking-error constraints, while Chopra (1993) and Frost & Savarino (1988) propose constrained portfolio weights. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach plays a prominent role in the literature. It is based on Stein (1955) , who proved the inadmissibility of the sample mean as an estimator for multivariate portfolio problems. In fact, he advises to apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimator that minimizes the errors in the return expectations, rather than trying to minimize the errors in each asset class return expectation separately. In following studies, this approach has been implemented in multiple ways. Barry (1974) and Bawa et al (1979) use either a non-informative diffuse prior or a predictive distribution obtained by integrating over the unknown parameter. Then, Jobson & Korkie (1980), Jorion (1985, 1986) and Frost & Savarino (1986) use empirical Bayes estimators, which shrink estimated returns closer to a common value and move the portfolio weights closer to the global minimum-variance portfolio. Finally, Pastor (2000), and Pastor & Stambaugh (2000) use the equilibrium implications of an asset-pricing model to establish a prior. Simpler Models To attempt portfolio construction throughout optimization is not the only alternative, though. In fact, alongside the wide range of portfolio optimization techniques, it is also worth considering other rules that require no estimation of parameters and no optimization at all. DeMiguel at al (2005) define them as ” simple asset-allocation rules “. For instance, one could just allocate all the wealth in a single asset, i.e., the market portfolio . Alternatively, investors may adopt the 1/N rule, dividing their wealth according to an equal-weighting scheme. At this point, the reader may wonder why one should consider this kind of rules. In fact, techniques that require no optimization should not be optimal according to any measure. However, as far as the naïve 1/N is concerned, some researchers have reported some interesting results. For instance, Benartzi & Thaler (2001) and Liang & Weisbenner (2002) show that more than a third of direct contribution plan participants allocate their assets equally among investment options, obtaining good returns. Moreover, Huberman & Jiang (2006) find similar results. Similarly, DeMiguel et al (2009) evaluate 14 models across seven empirical datasets, finding that none is consistently better than the 1/N rule in terms of Sharpe ratio, certainty-equivalent return or turnover. However, Tu & Zhou (2011) challenge DeMiguel et al. (2009) combining sophisticated optimization approaches with the naïve 1/N technique. Their findings confirm that the combined rules have a significant impact in improving the sophisticated strategies and in outperforming the simple 1/N rule. Moreover, other naïve rules are reported by Chow et al. (2013), such as the 1/σ and the 1/β, included in the so-called low-volatility investing methods. In particular, they report that low-volatility investing provides higher returns at lower risk than traditional cap-weighted indexing, at the cost of underperformance in upward-trending environments. Smart Beta Strategies Finally, it is worth mentioning a special group of strategies that are extremely popular among asset management firms, known as Smart Beta strategies. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies, and emphasise capturing investment factors in a transparent way, such as value, size, quality and momentum. Examples of these strategies are risk parity, minimum volatility, maximum diversification and many others. Apart from the wide range of these kinds of techniques, it is critical to highlight why they are so diffuse among practitioners. Their enormous success is due to several interesting advantages, including the flexibility to access tailored market exposures, improved control of portfolio exposures and the potential to achieve improved return/risk trade-offs. Final Remarks This article aims to be a summary of the most notorious techniques considered in the existing literature, but the list is far from being complete. Moreover, the article does not analyze which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique depends on several factors, including the time frame considered, the kind of assets, the geography of the examined portfolio, the client’s preferences, and it surely must rely on a quantitative application using real or simulated data.

Why The U.S. Stock Market Never Completely Recovered

Clearly, the global economic slowdown remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. The same canaries in the investment mines that stopped serenading last summer are straining their vocal chords once again. In sum, the S&P 500 has never fully recovered because global economic headwinds, equity overvaluation and anemic market breadth remain. Some things go unnoticed. For example, the S&P 500 rallied 13% off its closing lows (1867) set in late August. Lost in the shuffle? The popular benchmark has yet to revisit its closing highs (2130) registered back in May. In essence, the corrective activity that began in the springtime as a function of a faltering global economy, overvalued equities and weakening market internals has yet to run its course. What’s more, these factors that led to the August-September sell-off in risk assets are unlikely to dissipate quickly. Let’s start with the macro-economic backdrop. Data show that quantitative easing (QE) in Europe is not stimulating borrowing activity the way that it stimulated borrowing activity in the United States. If European consumers and European businesses are fearful to take out loans – or if creditors are unwilling to extend credit – the euro-zone economy is unlikely to show improvement. Similarly, European stocks would not experience much of a boost from share buybacks. Not surprisingly, then, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK ) failed to rise above its 200-day moving average; it never came close to recapturing its 52-week high. At this moment, the euro-zone proxy is still 12% below its high-water mark. Europe is hardly the only canker sore on the world stage. Japan recently revised its economic growth projections lower. China is slowing dramatically. And nations that depend upon natural resources exports (e.g., Australia, Canada, Brazil, Chile, etc.) are witnessing yet another downturn in commodity prices. In fact, the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (NYSEARCA: DBC ) has plummeted back to levels not seen since the late August free-fall for U.S. stocks. The bullish case for U.S. stocks continues to rely on the notion that the rest of the world does not matter. Ironically, the Federal Reserve did not raise borrowing costs in September and cast doubt on any rate hike this year when it stated that “…global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity.” The central bank subsequently backtracked at its October meeting by removing its commentary on global issues altogether. So do the economic hardships abroad matter or not? They matter with respect to corporate earnings and revenue. Consider the reality that corporate profits as well as sales were negative for the recent quarter (Q3) and that multinationals with greater overseas exposure witnessed steeper year-over-year declines. Clearly, the global economic slowdown remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. What’s more, declining earnings and declining revenue continue to pressure U.S. stock valuations . We are now looking at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.84 – one of the highest P/S ratios on record. The third component that sent stocks tumbling back in August was the softening of market internals . In particular, the discrepancy between the S&P 500’s Advance-Decline (A/D) Line and that of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) pointed to fewer and fewer large companies holding up the benchmark. Here in November, the disparity appears to have resurfaced. Some researchers have been particularly outspoken on the lack of market breadth. Heading into the current week of trading, Strategas Research Partners noted that ” the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 have contributed more than 100% of the year’s roughly 2% gain .” They added that ” the 10 biggest stocks in the index accounted for just 19% of the gains last year and 15.2% of the index’s return in 2013 .” We should let the above data sink in for a moment. In 2013 as well as 2014, the S&P 500’s appreciation was attributable to most of its components. In 2015? Only the 10 biggest large-caps account for the positive spin. It gets worse. The same canaries in the investment mines that stopped serenading last summer – high yield junk bonds, emerging market stocks, small company stocks, commodities – are straining their vocal chords once again. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) appears destined to retest its 52-week lows in the same way that commodities via DBC have. In sum, the S&P 500 has never fully recovered because global economic headwinds, equity overvaluation and anemic market breadth remain. Transporters, industrials, energy, materials, retail, leisure, household products, utilities, real estate, media, healthcare – a wide variety of sectors and sub-sectors have been buckling. It follows that it should not be all that surprising to see the S&P 500 buckle as well. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.