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RSX: High Risk, Even Higher Reward

Summary The Russian stock market has the lowest CAPE globally. Geopolitical events have had a massive negative impact. Oil price and the Russian rouble are trading close to their historic lows. This is exactly the time when a contrarian value investor may want to enter the market. While US stocks are flirting with all-time highs, investors are prompted to seek more attractive opportunities abroad. Of course, foreign markets are in different states, and one needs to be selective. I have been keeping an eye on Russian equities for a while , and am getting close to pulling the trigger. There are four main reasons why I am bullish on Russian stocks. Valuation The Market Vector Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ) is down 65% since its peak in summer 2008. According to StarCapital , it has the lowest cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio (“CAPE”) globally of just 4.7. For a comparison, CAPE stands at 25.1 in the US. Obviously, there is no guarantee that Russian stocks will not go even lower, but from a value perspective, an investor always feels more comfortable buying something at a reduced price rather than paying more than anyone has ever paid. Furthermore, after a free fall in 2014 when it lost 47%, RSX has started showing signs of recovery and is up 20% year to date in 2015. Oil price As discussed in one of my previous articles , Russia is one of the countries most dependent on the oil market. Online investor resource InvestSpy estimates that the correlation between RSX and the United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) has been 0.55 since RSX’s inception in May 2007. This relationship is nicely illustrated by the following chart, which clearly illustrates how closely linked the two funds are: (click to enlarge) Source: Google Finance Although the oil market may be a long way from recovery, the current Brent crude oil spot price is pretty much where it was trading at the height of the financial crisis in the beginning of 2009. Again, this does not guarantee anything, but at least gives the impression that the bottom could be not too far. C urrency RSX is naturally strongly linked to the performance of the Russian rouble. The correlation between RSX and USDRUB over the last couple of years has been negative 0.76. This implies that in most cases, RSX goes up when the rouble strengthens against the US dollar. The inverse relationship is also visible on the following chart: (click to enlarge) Source: Google Finance In addition, a simple linear regression with RSX as an independent variable and USDRUB as the explanatory variable indicates that the fund tends to go down 1.06% for every 1.00% increase in USDRUB. As USDRUB has more than doubled in the last two years, I would argue that there is a higher probability of retracement rather than continuation to new highs. Geopolitics Thinking about the worst geopolitical events, Russia appears to have taken almost every hit possible. Its military intervention in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 was followed by international sanctions that are now taking toll. It has been later accused of involvement in downing a passenger plane, further damaging the country’s reputation internationally. Most recently, Russia started carrying out air strikes in Syria, which resulted in a retaliatory act of terror. My take on this is that investors now firmly believe one can expect anything from Russia. The actions of its government are hard to predict, and events can quickly take a turn in the least anticipated direction. All this risk gets discounted into the stock prices, offering opportunities for those who are prepared to stomach it. Summary I believe RSX presents an attractive investment opportunity at a time when US equities are trading near their highest levels ever. Russian stocks have the lowest valuations worldwide. The oil price is close to the lows seen at the peak of the financial crisis. The Russian rouble is as weak against the dollar as ever. And the geopolitical picture for the country is so gloomy that it is not easy to come up with a worse scenario. Combining all these elements together, Russia does look like a top pick for a reversal play. It may not be a suitable option if you are a light sleeper, though.

Lipper Fund Flows: Another Miss For Money Markets With $20.2 Billion Exit

By Patrick Keon The S&P 500 Index (+0.41%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.20%) both recorded gains for the flows week. The overall positive performance by the indices for the week marked a significant turnaround from the performance at the start of the week; both indices retreated over 2.5% during the first two trading days. Then the markets rallied over the second half of the week: the S&P 500 was up 3.0% and the Dow appreciated 2.8%. Again, news and speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December dominated the market news during the week. There was sufficient economic data and public signals from individual Fed presidents for the market to take the view that the rate rise in December is becoming a foregone conclusion. Economic data released the prior week showed continued strength in the jobs market, with new unemployment claims remaining low and inflation starting to percolate as U.S. consumer prices rose in October. Both of these areas had been previously pointed to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen as key determinants in the Fed’s decision-making process. Four Fed presidents (New York’s William Dudley, St. Louis’s James Bullard, Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker, and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester) publicly expressed during the week that December is the right time to start lifting rates. The near certainty of a rate increase was taken as a positive by week’s end and was seen as a strong sign the U.S. economy is continuing to improve. This past week’s net outflows for money market funds (-$20.2 billion) pushed their overall outflows for the year so far to $23.2 billion. The week’s activity in the group was varied; funds in Lipper’s Money Market Funds and Institutional Money Market Funds classifications had significant net outflows of $14.6 billion and $13.8 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, Institutional U.S. Government Money Market Funds and Institutional U.S. Treasury Money Market Funds took in $4.5 billion and $3.0 billion of net new money. Equity mutual funds (-$3.3 billion) were responsible for all the net outflows from the equity fund macro-group, while equity ETFs had positive flows of just over $1 billion. Mutual funds saw net outflows from both domestic equity (-$2.6 billion) and nondomestic equity (-$700 million) funds. Among ETFs, the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) (+$693 million) and the United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) (+$373 million) experienced the two largest net inflows for the week. Similar to the equity funds, mutual funds were responsible for all the net outflows for taxable bond funds (-$820 million), while taxable bond ETFs saw their coffers grow $1.2 billion. Investors ran away from lower-quality mutual funds; Lipper’s High Yield Funds and Loan Participation Funds classifications had $1.0 billion and $234 million of net outflows for the week. The Core Bond Funds category paced the ETFs, with the group taking in over $930 million of net new money. Municipal bond mutual funds had net inflows of $263 million-for their seventh consecutive week of positive flows. Funds in Lipper’s national municipal bond fund classifications (+$251 million) accounted for the lion’s share of these positive flows.

The PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy ETF: Enduring Principals

The fund is managed by a global leader of fixed income assets. The fund diverges from the tracking index, but reduces the ‘duration risk’ by doing so. PIMCO’s bond management experience may prove to be an asset as the Fed prepares to change policy. A unique feature of the once popular game show, Jeopardy , was that the answer was the question and the question was the answer. So for example, you might been confronted with the answer: “Ben Franklin, Mark Twain, Daniel Defoe, Christopher Bullock and Edward Ward” Your answer, in the form of a question of course, would be, “Who have been given credit for first saying, ‘ Nothing is certain except for death and taxes’ ?” Indeed and invariably, that seems to be the case. Each may be unavoidable in the end, but in the meantime, with careful planning an investor can take a breather from taxes without being in jeopardy with the IRS by including a tax exempt municipal bond fund in a portfolio. Oddly, compared to other types of taxable bond funds, there aren’t that many plain vanilla funds to choose from. The choices are further narrowed by the three choices of Long , Intermediate or Short maturity funds. Pacific Investment Management Company , commonly recognized by its acronym, PIMCO , is a global investment management firm, specializing in fixed income assets, with over $1.47 trillion under its care. It should be noted, though, PIMCO manages its assets independently, but it is wholly owned by Allianz (OTC: OTCQX:ALIZF ) PIMCO offers the actively managed PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy (NYSEARCA: MUNI ) . According to PIMCO, the fund is: . .. Designed to be appropriate for investors seeking tax-exempt income, the fund consists of a diversified portfolio of primarily intermediate duration, high credit quality bonds, which carry interest income that is exempt from federal tax and in some cases state tax… PIMCO makes a point of noting that: … Unlike index funds that typically rely solely on a rating agency for credit analysis, PIMCO applies extensive research on each municipal bond we own in the fund… …to avoid what we feel are municipalities of deteriorating credit quality in our efforts to protect investors’ capital… Having that extra level of analysis should provide the investor with an extra measure of risk mitigation. The fund tracks Barclays 1-15 Year Municipal Bond Index (LM17TR) : …which consists of a broad selection of investment grade general obligation and revenue bonds of maturities ranging from one year to 17 years… The fund was incepted on November 30, 2009 and currently holds approximately $235.5 million in net assets. Its daily trading volume is noted to be 37,881 ETF shares; hence there’s sufficient liquidity available to enter a position. Since inception, the fund has traded at par with its NAV and recently has traded at a discount of -0.13% to NAV. It should be noted that being able to purchase a bond fund at a discount gives the investor an extra advantage. That being noted, the fund’s shares have a slight bias to trade at a discount to NAV over its history, hence it may be worth choosing the moment for the best entry point. The funds current estimated ‘yield to maturity’ is 2.28% and a distribution yield of 2.29%, (distributions are monthly). Management fees are below the ETF industry average at 0.35% which, again, is another advantage in the long run. The 30 day SEC yield, i.e., after fees and expenses is 1.67%. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from Pimco A word or two needs to be said about a few terms. First, according to Investopedia, Average Effective Maturity is a measure of maturity, taking into account the probability that a bond might be called back to the issuer. At this point it’s worth noting the term embedded option . This is a special condition ‘written into’ a security. For example, a bond might have a ‘ call date ‘: a date on which a bond may be redeemed, or ‘called’, before maturity. For the entire portfolio, which may have a mix of callable and non-callable bonds, the Average Effective Maturity is the weighted average of the maturities taking into account those with a call provision. Another important concept is that of Duration . Without going into a lot of the mathematics of finance, it may be generally understood by an example. Consider a $100,000.00, 3.25%, 15 year fixed rate loan starting today . Looking forward, in a little under 13 years into the loan, the borrower will have paid back $100,000.00 in combined principal and interest. In other words the lending bank breaks even at a little under 13 years. Now start again but fast forward ahead 5 years from the beginning. The borrower has made interest and principal payments amounting to $28093.00; ($5989.00 of that is principal). However, the lender considers those previous five years of payments, amounting to $28093.00, as paid and ‘off the table’. There’s still $94011.00 of principal left to pay. Since the original five years of ‘cash flow’ is off the table, the lender recalculates and figures out that breakeven on the future interest and principal payments occurs in just over 8.5 years. If the recalculation is done after every payment is made and off the table, the ‘breakeven’ will continue to gradually decrease to 0 years, (maturity). Just one more detail is needed: if the loan had a floating rate and interest rates declined, it will take longer to reach that breakeven point. Conversely, if rates increased, breakeven will be attained more quickly . That’s essentially Duration. It’s a way to measure how long it would take for full repayment of the original price of a bond, at the current interest rate via future cash flow and specified in years. If interest rates go up, it takes longer; if interest rates go down, it’s quicker. These calculations are of great importance to fund managers since they often open and close positions before maturity . So why should a retail investor care? The U.S. Federal Reserve sets the benchmark when it comes to interest rates. Recently, the Fed has indicated that, most likely, it will increase the benchmark ‘Fed Funds’ rate by the end of the year. The Fed usually moves in 25 basis point (1/4 point) increments. So if an investor had to choose from bond funds of equal quality holdings, the smart move would be to choose the one with the shortest duration as it would be least impacted by rising interest rates. Analysts like to look at these metrics in different ways or even ‘fine tune’ existing metrics. Indeed, this is the case with bonds. For example, Effective Duration takes into account both callable and non-callable bonds and determines the ‘probable duration’ of the entire portfolio as interest rates fluctuate. Now, having a reasonably good idea of what Duration is, the fund’s Effective Duration is currently 5.07 years. (click to enlarge) The fund’s home page Performance and Risk tab includes an interesting ‘ Key rate Durations ‘, summarized below. It’s an at-a-glance way to see how sensitive a fixed maturity is to a 1% change in market interest rates. Data from Pimco It should be noted that the greatest sensitivity occurs in the 5 to 10 year maturity range, which is 55% of the funds maturity composition. The pie charts below demonstrate the fund’s ‘Maturity Allocation’ as well as the ‘Quality Allocation’ of the fund. (click to enlarge) Just over 47% of total holdings are top quality AA- to AAA. Just over 28% are medium quality A- to A+ and almost 10% are lower quality but investment grade, BBB- to BBB+. Lastly ‘NR’ or ‘Not Rated’ means that, according to the summary prospectus , PIMCO has determined the holding is ‘of comparable quality’ with other bond rating agency grades. It’s also worth noting the fund’s maturity distribution compared with the tracking index. The chart demonstrates that the fund diverges from the index composition significantly; however this does result in a lower duration by just over 31.8%: 5.42 years vs 7.95 year. It should be noted that that the fund does weight strongly the 5 to 10 year maturity range. Those are the maturities with the highest sensitivity to interest rate variations and it does so much heavier than does the index. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The fund charts its sector allocation in an interesting way, both in terms of percentage of total market value as well as percent of total duration. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The holdings include a couple of ‘arcane’ instruments. First are the ‘ Pre-Refunded ‘ holdings. According to the MSRB’s glossary of Municipal Securities Terms: … a refunding in which the refunded issue remains outstanding for a period of more than 90 days after the issuance of the refunding issue… …such refunded bonds are secured solely by an escrow funded with the proceeds of the refunding bonds… …The proceeds of the refunding issue are generally invested in Treasury Securities…. … to pay principal and interest… …on the refunded issue… To put is simply, Pre-Refunded or Advanced Refunded occurs when there’s an overlap in the refunding of an existing issue. The ‘existing issue’ must still meet its obligation, and this is ‘covered’ by the refunding issue’s proceeds and held in escrow. This may partly explain the 4.08% of total holdings as being short term U.S. Treasury Notes. Another interesting holding are the ‘Tobacco Municipal Bonds’. These are bonds issued by a state and funded by a future payment or cash flow due as a result of a settlement or successful lawsuit against a tobacco company. It’s worth noting that tobacco bonds comprise about 2.5% of the municipal bond market. For more on Tobacco Bonds the reader is referred to PIMCO, ” Municipal Tobacco Settlement Bonds: Seeking Value in the Ashes “. MUNI is comparable in returns to the two other funds filtered by the Seeking Alpha ETF Hub . The Fed has indicated that its policy shift will be slow and gradual. This will, no doubt, have some impact on Duration , but when the tax advantage is considered and at the same time having the fund actively managed by the industry leader, it should all add up to make this intermediate municipal bond fund worth holding. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from PIMCO