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Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 11/20/15

Major averages closed nearly flat yesterday on lower volume that was well below average. The majors made big advances over the last few days, so yesterday’s action can be considered a constructive digestion of the recent gains. Nevertheless, we remain in a period of elevated volatility. Before this year, the S&P 500 has never traded so flat and chaotic in its entire 48-year history. The last time the S&P 500 was this flat was in 1993, but that pattern was coherent so money could easily be made that year. The battle between quantitative easing and a sick economy that refuses to jump start is evident in this year’s chart pattern. Fortunately, such anomalies always come to an end as external manipulation of the same type in the same manner has a limited shelf life. The only thing that doesn’t change is change. So always expect markets and conditions to change. That said, the S&P 500 chart pattern that has emerged this year is perhaps telling us that we are reaching an important tipping point. Unless the Fed starts up QE4, or unless the US economy really does start to improve which, in turn, helps the global economy, this sideways pattern could be expressing an important top. We will be discussing this further in today’s webinar. But rather than try to predict markets, stay in the present by calmly taking action as needed as new information by way of price/volume action in leading stocks and major averages presents itself. Short-sale targets Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) have rallied with the market. AAPL was bolstered by a buy recommendation from Goldman Sachs which pushed the stock through its 50-day moving average. However, the stock found resistance at the top of its prior gap-down “falling window” of November 10th and the 120 price level. We would view this as a potential short-sale point up to the 200-day moving average at 121.96, using the 200-day line as a guide for an upside stop. TSLA ran into resistance near its 10-week moving average, and we would consider it shortable as close to the 10-week line at 229.02 as possible, using the 200-day moving average at 233.13 as a maximum upside stop. These would be optimally actionable if the general market were to tip back to the downside.

Small-Cap Value ETFs: Key To Win In Post Lift-Off Era?

The U.S. economy will probably experience a shift in era by this year end, if economic conditions remain unchanged. With the Fed now overtly referring to December as the timeline for raising interest rates after a decade and putting global growth issues aside unlike its prior meetings, investors may now have to rush to alter their portfolio and make it in line with the looming Fed rate hike. Though much of the impending shock has been priced in at the current level, gyrations are still expected in the stock market post lift-off. Though the Fed affirmed that the rate hike trail would be slower, investors know that this will be the beginning of the end of the rock-bottom rates era. Naturally, they will be hunting for the right equity investing strategy. Notably, years of cheap money fueled the U.S. growth stocks as evident from the 106% jump by iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: IWO ) in the last 10 years and its 75% surge in the last five years (as of November 18, 2015). But, value stocks underperformed, as indicated by iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF ‘s (NYSEARCA: IWN ) 45.3% gain in the last 10 years and about 44% rise in the last five years. Growth investing means buying those companies, which exhibit fast-growing earnings, indulge heavily in capital spending and are forecast to earn at an above-industry rate. This group of companies normally pays lesser dividend or no dividend and capital appreciation is the main motive. Quite understandably, this high-growth proposition requires more capital and lower interest rates to be executed. On the other hand, value strategy includes stocks with strong fundamentals – earnings, dividends, book value and cash flow – compared with their current market prices. These stocks trade below their intrinsic value and are undervalued by the market. This pool of companies normally pays sounder dividends too. Thus, it is historically seen that value stocks perform better than growth stocks in a rising rate environment, mainly due to the difference in their modes of operation. Then, as per analysts , the right time to tap value is when the market reaches its zenith and retreats on overvaluation. For fear of a horrendous sell-off, investors seek safety, which value stocks normally offer unlike growth stocks. Since the market is likely to be wobbly, value stocks can predominate. Moreover, in the absence of cheap money inflows, investors are likely to look for cheaper stocks with great potential rather than the pricey and glamorous growth stocks. All in all, there is a high chance that value stocks will rule the U.S. markets over the next few months. The global investment management firm Pimco also expects this trend to be established in the coming future. Analysts noted that: “During the periods when the Fed was raising interest rates, the value stocks had an average return of 1.2% a month, or 14.4% a year, versus the growth index’s 0.7% a month, or 8.3% a year.” Now with the U.S. economy taking root, job reports showing strength and inflation staying decent, small-cap value stocks should be the best bets ahead. Small-cap stocks are the best measure of domestic economic recovery as these are less exposed to foreign lands. Moreover, terror attacks in several parts of the globe and international growth issues can also be stripped out via U.S. small-cap valued ETFs. Below we highlight three such ETFs, which could be in focus in the coming days. S&P Small Cap 600 Value Index Fund (NYSEARCA: IJS ) The fund looks to provide exposure to U.S. small-cap value stocks by tracking the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index. The $3.14-billion fund holds a total of 468 small-cap stocks. The fund appears diversified as no stock accounts for more than 0.92% of the basket. Among the different sectors, Financials, Industrials and IT occupy the top three positions with 24.36%, 19.75% and 16.59% of weight, respectively. The fund charges a premium of 25 basis points annually. This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) ETF was up 1.25% in the last one month (as of November 18, 2015). WisdomTree SmallCap Earnings Fund (NYSEARCA: EES ) For a slightly different approach to the small-cap market, investors may want to consider EES, as it follows earnings-generating companies in the small-cap universe of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, the fund looks to weight by earnings, giving bigger weights to firms that earn more, irrespective of market capitalization. This results in a portfolio of roughly 950 securities. No stock accounts for more than 1.1% of the fund. Financials (27.34%), Industrials (18.48%), Consumer Discretionary (15.68%) and IT (12.24%) are the top four sectors of the fund. This $382-million fund charges 38 bps in fees. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) while it was almost flat in the last one month. Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VBR ) This fund provides exposure to the value segment of the U.S. small-cap market by tracking the CRSP US Small Cap Value Index. It holds a large basket of 843 stocks, which is widely spread across individual securities as none of these has more than 0.6% of assets. In terms of sector exposure, Financials dominates the portfolio at 30%, followed by Industrials (20.5%) and Consumer Services (12.2%). The ETF is quite popular with AUM of more than $5.68 billion. It is one of the low-cost choices in the small-cap space, charging 9 bps in fees per year from investors. The fund added about 0.6% in the last one month. VBR has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Original post .

Selectivity: The New Way Forward For Investors

We believe these changes position investor portfolios to capture what we view as the best opportunities in global equity markets that we expect to play out over the next several years. More specifically, some of the broader changes we’ve made are from a thematic perspective: Equity and multi-asset class portfolios underwent a fairly significant reorientation away from companies levered to the commodity complex (i.e., the Energy and Materials sectors) to those more levered to services/consumption (i.e., the Information Technology and Healthcare sectors). Portfolios also continue to have significant exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector as we seek to capitalize on service/consumption trends. Additionally, we notably decreased exposure to the Industrials sector and meaningfully increased exposure to Consumer Staples in our Non-U.S. Equity portfolios. Equity positioning is driven by our bottom-up, fundamental research, complemented by our top-down macroeconomic viewpoints. Primary driving factors behind the portfolio repositioning include: The waning commodity supercycle, combined with China’s structural transition from an investment-driven model of growth to one driven more by consumption. And more broadly: Emerging markets’ burgeoning middle class, along with ongoing advancement in emerging market consumers’ wealth. China’s economic transformation does indeed present the risk that Chinese GDP deviates from investor expectations. The transition to a slower – albeit more stable and sustainable – pace of growth, however, is necessary and well underway, as evidenced by GDP and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Data showing contribution to real GDP is released annually in China. The most recent release shows that in 2014, consumption contributed more to GDP growth than investment. More recently, PMI data shows that activity in the services sector continues to expand (i.e., a reading above 50), whereas manufacturing activity has been contracting. This suggests that the rebalancing story continues to play out. (click to enlarge) More broadly, emerging market consumers currently spend only a fraction of what their developed world counterparts spend, due in large part to income disparities. As the emerging markets’ middle class grows, consumer spending on goods and services should become larger contributors to GDP. According to McKinsey & Company, emerging markets’ consumption is expected to equal $30 trillion by 2025, a 150% increase from 2010. (click to enlarge) In our view, all of these dynamics present long-run opportunities for investors seeking growth. We believe that the changes in our portfolio positioning will enable investors to benefit from the trends that we think will move global equity markets over the next several years. Nevertheless, flexibility is paramount to any investment strategy in order to adapt to an ever-changing economic backdrop. To be sure, a selective approach is critical, as opportunities are far from uniform across all countries and sectors. Learn more about the importance of selectivity in today’s environment, in our latest video series from our investment team experts. 1 Source: Winning the $30 trillion decathlon