Why Are Utility Black Hills Investors Seeing Red?
Black Hills recently priced a secondary offering at a full 30% off its peak price in 2014. The acquisition of SourceGas doubles its community count in states they currently service. While Moody’s and Fitch placed Black Hills on “Negative Watch”, they are generally supportive of the company’s business profile. Black Hills Corp (NYSE: BKH ) is a small cap diversified utility whose stocks price has collapsed from $60 in June 2014 to $40 currently, with share prices down 10% on Nov 17. The answer lies in two circumstances: its business profile and the issuance of dilutive equity to fund an acquisition. The first situation is more long-term and the second more short-term. Originally founded 132 years ago in Deadwood, ND (interesting name for an investment headquarters), BKH has a long history of dividend increases, stretching back to 1970. Black Hills is a utility with regulated natural gas and electricity assets and non-regulated assets, with the non-regulated assets generating the negative issues. BKH mines coal, generates electricity with coal, and explores for oil and natural gas. These business segments are currently out of favor with most investors, and are creating financial stress. Black Hills services 680,000 customers in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska along with 110,000 customers in South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana. 205,000 are electric customers and 585,000 are natural gas customers. Below is a graphic of its service territory. (click to enlarge) The annual dividend is currently $1.62, for a yield of 4.0%. The company has a 45-year string of dividend increases, driven in part by strong industrial load growth in electricity. Over the previous 5 years, Black Hill’s growth has been in its regulated utility business. In 2009, regulated utility business generated $126.2 million in operating income vs. $19.9 million for non-regulated. Last year, regulated businesses generated $222.4 million vs. $39.3 million for non-regulated. At no time over the previous 5 years has the non-regulated segment generate over $45 million in operating income while operating EPS over the same time frame increased from $1.38 to $2.93. Management has forecast operating EPS of $2.90 to $3.10 for this year, midpoint $3.00, and $3.15 to $3.35 for 2016, midpoint $3.25. According to S&P Credit, the states serviced have the following regulatory environment (based on three groups of regulatory friendliness – Strong, Strong/Adequate, and Adequate): Colorado and Iowa – Strong; Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana – Strong/Adequate. Pre-2014, S&P Credit offered five categories of regulatory friendliness and it seems Colorado, Wyoming and Montana improved their relative positioning. In addition, Black Hills geographic service territory includes some of the higher economic growth rates. Below is a map from the Bureau of Economic Advisors of economic growth by State for 2014. As shown, Colorado and Wyoming exceeded the national average growth rate of 2.2% while the balance of the states served fell short. In general, the Rocky Mountain States saw their economic growth rate expand from 1.4% in 2011 to 3.9% in 2014 while the Plains saw their rate of growth slashed from 2.1% to 1.3%. This underlying economic growth helps to lift energy demand. (click to enlarge) Similar to the entire oil and gas exploration and production industry, BKH has experienced large non-cash write-offs for redetermination of its natural gas reserve values. The YTD charges amount to $2.53 a share, or $110 million, reducing Trailing Twelve Months reported earnings to $0.37 vs. TTM operating earnings of $3.07. In tune with their peers, BKH has slashed its capital expenditure budget for oil and gas exploration from $242 million to a measly $27 million. From an overall observation, BKH’s future lies with its regulated business, as the non-regulated business will continuing to provide a drag on investor interest. Presently, Black Hills can provide about 50% of its natural gas delivery needs from internal production, and with commodity pass-through provisions, allows BKH to be more self-sufficient than other small natural gas utilities. While not a large attribute in these times of low gas prices, if prices were to rise over time, this could add another potential profit layer. In early summer, Black Hills announced it was buying a neighboring natural gas utility from private sources. In July, BKH announced it was buying SourceGas from an investment fund owned by Alinda Capital Partners and GE Energy Financial Services for $1.89 billion, including assumption of $720 million in debt. The expansion will add 425,000 customers and solidify its position in its existing service states as the number of community served doubles to 800. In addition to the current seven states, BKH will add Arkansas customers. However, to fund the acquisition, this week management priced a 5.5 million share secondary offering at $40.50 a share, for a dilution of about 12%, based on 44.5 million shares outstanding before and 50 million after. The company will also offer equity units comprising of an interest in a 2028 subordinated debt and a collar contract to buy additional common shares between $40 and $47. When exercised, the equity units will further dilute share count by 10% and the equity unit is expected to yield 7.5%. Net proceeds from these two are expected to total $465 to $535 million on their close at the end of Nov. The original acquisition funding estimates called for $575 to $675 million in new equity. This still leaves new debt issuance of between $590 and $660 million, and is higher than the original estimate of $450 to $550 million. In connection with the acquisition, Moody’s and Fitch credit rating agencies lowered BKH’s outlook to “negative”. The added concern mainly focuses on higher debt levels BKH will take on. Moody’s comments : However, the decline in financial metrics is slightly offset by the anticipated improvement in the company’s business risk profile. The transaction brings increased scale and diversity as well as additional opportunity to grow rate base in the constructive regulatory environments that SourceGas operates in. It improves Black Hill’s overall risk profile as it adds low-risk LDC utility operations and reduces the proportional size of its higher risk E&P operations. The rating affirmations and stable outlooks on Black Hills Power and SourceGas reflect the companies’ stable utility operations with visible growth opportunities. Because Black Hills already operates in three of SourceGas’ four states, we expect Black Hills to improve efficiency by combining utility operations and to be better positioned in these states through the increased scale. Arkansas is the only state where Black Hills currently does not have any operations. In recent years, SourceGas has experienced improvements in its regulatory environment in Arkansas, including a reasonable outcome in its rate case in 2014. Fitch’s comments : BKH operates regulated electric and natural gas utilities in seven states, all of which allow for pass-through of commodity and/or purchased power costs and many feature other riders or recovery mechanisms that enhance timely recovery of expenses and invested capital. Transmission investments are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) or state regulatory commissions with most capital expenditures eligible for rider recovery. The diversity by regulated jurisdiction further enhances the predictability of cash flows and minimizes the effects of exogenous factors. Non-regulated investments consist of a legacy upstream energy exploration and development business. Fitch considers BKH’s coal and competitive generation businesses, which are largely contracted to BKH’s utilities, as possessing relatively low risk. BKH’s utilities, coal, and merchant generation businesses have a large degree of operational and financial integration, with jointly owned or contracted generation and common call centers. BKH has interests in the Mancos shale play and is committing relatively large capital investments in order to further assess and prove its potential reserves in the area. BKH’s proposal to place a portion of its natural gas assets into a nonregulated exploration and production subsidiary, which would supply its utilities with up to 50% of annual gas consumption through long-term contracts, if successful would reduce the inherent risks and volatility of the non-regulated oil and gas business segment and would be viewed positively by Fitch. BKH has traditionally managed this business in a conservative manner and uses swaps and other instruments up to two years in duration to hedge pricing risk. Black Hills has earned a disappointing S&P Equity Quality Below Average Rating of “B”. Fastgraph outlines the current valuation for BKH in the chart below, along with a historic review of return on invested capital ROIC. ROIC between 2006 and 2011 were at sector average of 4% to 5%., but has improved since 2011. (click to enlarge) Source: fastgraph.com (click to enlarge) Source: fastgraph.com Since 2014, investors have punished BKH with a substantial stock price haircut, but the barber may not yet be done. By all accounts, the acquisition of SourceGas will reduce the company’s risk profile by increasing its regulated footprint in states where they have a good PUC relationships. Black Hills would be more enticing with a further dip in price to generate a higher yield, but nibbling here could offer interesting opportunities as a small-cap portfolio diversifier serving the Rocky Mountain and Plains geographic area. Author’s Note: Please review disclosure in Author’s profile.