Tesla Stock Guns It On Guidance, As Bears Sniff Model 3 Launch
Electric car maker Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) surged 4.7% to close at 150.47 in the stock market today , on the strength of its 2016 car-sales guidance and plans to unveil the Model 3 design in March. But what-ifs looming over the revolutionary startup could take a toll soon, in the bear case for the stock, after Tesla’s surprise Q4 loss. The bull case considers Tesla EVs eventually capturing a decent chunk of the car market, with persisting brand cachet a la Apple ( AAPL ). Tesla CEO Elon Musk bottom-lined the big picture, as he sees it. “Tesla is approximately doubling its cumulative sales every year. I’m not sure if this has happened in the car industry for nearly a century,” he said on the company’s earnings conference call with analysts late Wednesday. Musk noted that Tesla sold more large luxury vehicles in the U.S. last year than the individual model of any other carmaker. Its $70,000-plus Model S sedan outsold, at 25,202 units nationwide, Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz S-Class and CLS-Class, the BMW 6-Series and 7-Series, Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi A7 and A8 and Porsche Panamera, Tata Motors ’ ( TTM ) Jaguar XJ and Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus LS. But in doing so, and in gearing up to launch the Model X crossover SUV while building a battery factory, Tesla logged a $2.30 per share loss in 2015. And its 87-cent loss per share for Q4 came as a big surprise — analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had on average expected 10 cents EPS. Revenue surged 59% to $1.75 billion for the quarter and reached $5.29 billion for the year, but that also missed estimates. ‘Bar Has Been Set High’ Tesla sold 50,658 vehicles in 2015, mostly its Model S. But can it grow car deliveries as fast as it forecasts — now and years into the future? Therein lies the rub, reflected in Tesla’s stock action. Investors and traders have sent Tesla stock plummeting 36% this year, after gaining 8% in 2015, jumping 48% in 2014, and rocketing 344% in 2013. That’s against the backdrop of an 11% decline this year in the S&P 500 index. Stifel analyst James Albertine said in a research note Thursday, “we expect disbelief in guidance and heightened cash flow scrutiny to weigh on Tesla shares, if not today, over the short term (next 1-3 months).” Tesla has delivered, and forecasts, strong unit-sales growth amid very ambitious long-term goals — it has also blown some deadlines and incurred costs getting its designs right. The tricky falcon-wing doors on the recently introduced Model X crossover SUV, for example, are among factors weighing on how fast the California automaker’s production can ramp up. “The bar has been set high, yet again,” Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson said in a research note after Tesla delivered Q4 results, in which it forecast unit sales of 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles in 2016. The fourth quarter “highlighted the immense difficulty of Tesla’s overall task involved in ramping production so quickly,” said Erickson, who rates Tesla sector weight. “While we continue to believe the company can grow into several hundred thousand cars per year by 2020, we struggle with the upside scenarios.” Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters see Tesla back in black for all quarters in 2016, with full-year EPS of $1.67 forecast and then $3.89 in 2017, after a $2.30 loss last year that followed two years of positive results on a non-GAAP basis (but annual losses on a GAAP basis). Revenue is seen ramping 63% in 2016 to $8.62 billion, then rising 25% to $10.75 billion in 2017. When Will Tesla Model 3 Launch? Albertine, who rates Tesla a buy, suspects that Tesla’s smaller Model 3 design due to be unveiled March 31 “will impress, though will be met with questions of cost, launch timing and margins.” That’s the bear case he lays out, and others question how much of the car market the Model 3 can actually command. With production and deliveries beginning in late 2017, it’s meant to compete — at $35,000 before incentives — with the likes of the popular BMW 3 Series. In some places, federal and state green-car incentives could cut the cost as much as $10,000, however. “The ‘story’ is far from complete, and the risk is still high,” Albertine writes, but it drives “the best potential ‘reward’ (our $325 target price remains intact) among our automotive coverage.” His bull case sees regulatory restrictions on vehicle emissions and fuel economy continuing despite the low price of oil and gas now, driving interest in EVs and specifically Tesla, after its great strides in carmaking. “Tesla vehicles are hardly perfect, but in 3.5 short years since launching, the Model S have come further on safety/connectivity/autonomous driving/performance than gasoline vehicles have come in decades,” he writes. Customers want to buy innovative products, and the Model S and Model X are “the most innovative products,” Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry told IBD. At the moment the ability to innovate and show revenue growth is paramount, he adds, while down the road profit will be driven not only by the Model 3, but also other product lines beyond cars, such as Tesla Energy (the stationary battery division), Tesla’s cloud and machine-learning platform that now powers its Autopilot car-automation software, and Tesla’s supercharger network. GM Chevy Bolt Gets Preorders General Motors ‘ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt is seen as one competitor to Tesla’s Model 3. GM’s electric vehicle, with a driving range of 200-plus miles between recharges, was shown off last month at the CES show in Las Vegas and at the Detroit auto show. It won’t officially be on sale for a year, but already one Canadian dealership enthusiastic about EV sales has taken 93 preorders for the Bolt , according to an InsideEVs report. How much competition will the Model 3 face? “The timing of the Model 3 also concerns me because it’s at least a year after the Chevrolet Bolt arrives,” Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book, said in an email to IBD. “And additional pure electrics with a similar range could easily show up by late 2017. These competitors will have full sales and service support in every state and major market, putting the pressure on Model 3 to keep up in this rapidly expanding market.” With a late-2017 launch, the Model 3 may compete in the luxury segment, Albertine notes. “As a result of lessons learned from Model S/X launches, Tesla expects a steeper Model 3 ramp,” he said in his research note. “Management noted the Model 3 sedan will be 20% lighter and less complex to manufacture vs. both the Models S/X. Management expects another 30% of improvement from economies of scale and vehicle design, which equates to a 50% price improvement (to $35k base) vs. the Model S ($70k base).”