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Groupon ‘s ( GRPN ) pledge to trim down and over-deliver as it transforms its operations drew praise Tuesday from investment bank William Blair. Groupon interim CFO Brian Kayman and investor relations chief Tom Grant said in meetings with William Blair last week that the company “had a tendency to ‘get ahead of its skis’ in terms of priorities and financial targets,” wrote analyst Ralph Schackart. That “overly-broad approach … led to some mis-execution,” Schackart said. “Going forward, the company is focused on executing against a narrower set of priorities to regain investor confidence, and it is attempting to set less ambitious guidance targets.” In a restructuring expected to be completed by September, Groupon is shutting down in unprofitable countries and scaling back low-margin goods. Groupon reported Q4 earnings that beat consensus, Schackart said, and now Groupon shares “are up 35% year-to-date — the highest of any company on our coverage list.” But it’s now up just 25%, with Groupon stock down 7% in midday trading in the stock market today , near 3.80. Schackart said “the company will need to show consistent execution against stated guidance for multiple quarters to regain increased investor confidence.” William Blair maintained a market perform rating on Groupon stock. Will Groupon’s Marketing Spend Produce Results? A key focus for investors is Groupon’s $150 million to $200 million incremental marketing investment for 2016, he said, especially since executives “noted that price, frequency and active customers are the three primary revenue drivers, and the incremental marketing spending will be focused on adding new customers.” On Tuesday, Groupon announced a series of website, mobile and tablet enhancements designed to make it easier for merchants to track and manage their Groupon campaigns. Groupon’s plans to use social media and search engine marketing in new ways drew praise. “For example, it might target people on Facebook ( FB ) who do not have the Groupon app with a mobile installation advertisement or bid on higher-level search words than in the past,” Schackart wrote. Other analysts have been more skeptical. “While Groupon has recently shown signs of progress in its transformation to an e-commerce marketplace and its core initiatives (including streamlining its international operations or customer acquisition), we believe there is still a long road ahead in strengthening the company’s positioning in the local ad and/or local e-commerce market,” wrote UBS analyst Eric Sheridan in an industry note on March 9. “Meanwhile, larger Internet companies, predominantly Alphabet ( GOOGL ) subsidiary Google and Facebook, are increasing their efforts to capture local ad dollars, while Amazon ‘s ( AMZN ) same-day delivery service reduces the benefit of a local marketplace.” Sheridan downgraded Groupon to sell from neutral and set a price target of 3.20. Sheridan sees several “key weaknesses” in Groupon’s competitive position, including marketing spend that will pressure near-term margins, rising competition, a shift to lower-margin business and slowing customer and engagement growth. Sheridan blamed those troubles on Groupon’s international retrenchment and its “lack of operating profit scale to drive additional investments in innovation that might counteract the platform strength of Google and Facebook.” Groupon’s changes come as others are also tweaking their strategies. Last week, Angie’s List ( ANGI ) got a revenue outlook boost from Pacific Crest Securities, which praised the online review site’s recent decision to drop its current membership model and replace it with free access to its business ratings and reviews as part of a tiered subscription plan. The addition of the free tier “should reignite user growth,” wrote Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson in a research report last week. Scalper1 News
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