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Fitbit ( FIT ) stock fell off the treadmill Tuesday, a day after the maker of wearable fitness devices reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, but guided Wall Street much lower than expected for the current quarter. Fitbit shares were down 19%, near 13.40, in midday trading on the stock market today , and at least five investment banks downgraded their rating on the company. Fitbit stock hit its all-time low of 12.90 on Feb. 11, after the company went public in June at 20 a share and peaked in August near 52. Several analysts downgraded the stock or cut their price targets after the San Francisco-based company late Monday posted Q4 earnings and gave Q1 and full-year 2016 guidance. In Q4, Fitbit earned 35 cents a share, excluding items, on sales of $712 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share rose 67%, and sales jumped 92% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected 25 cents ex items on sales of $648 million. But for the current quarter, Fitbit is targeting non-GAAP earnings per share of 1 cent on sales of $430 million, at the midpoint of its guidance range. Analysts were modeling 23 cents and $485 million. Fitbit’s New Products Out In March Fitbit Chief Financial Officer Bill Zerella said Q1 is a product transition quarter, with the launch of the Fitbit Blaze smart fitness watch and Alta fitness wristband in March, as well as the discontinuation of the Fitbit Charge. Fitbit expects to incur higher sales and marketing expenses because of the global product launches, plus additional manufacturing expenses to maximize production of the new products. Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy downgraded Fitbit stock to neutral from overweight and slashed her price target to 14 from 24. The outlook for Fitbit’s new products is cloudy, and the company faces tough year-over-year comparisons in the second half of the year, she said in a research report. Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson downgraded Fitbit stock to sector weight from overweight. He cited the risk of hardware commoditization and poor user metrics as reasons for the change. “We see little likelihood of dispelling anytime soon the longer-term bear thesis of slowing growth, pricing pressure and longer-term commoditization,” he said in a report. Fitbit is looking like the next GoPro ( GPRO ), a hardware company facing market saturation, slowing growth and margin and earnings erosion, he said. Erickson is also concerned about active-user trends. Fitbit added 18 million new registered device users in 2015, of which 13 million, or 72%, were active users at year-end. Erickson says Fitbit stock has a fair value of 14. Cowen analyst John Kernan reiterated his market perform rating on Fitbit stock but axed his price target to 19 from 41. FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi maintained his outperform rating but cleaved his price target to 25 from 50. Sterne Agee CRT analyst Rob Cihra kept his neutral rating on Fitbit and price target of 18. To turn things around, Fitbit needs to show leverage in the corporate wellness market, improve customer retention, and come out with new products with breakthrough sensors. Despite shipping over 30 million devices in the past two years, Fitbit ended 2015 with 16.9 million active users. “This kind of ‘churn’ is likely just natural and systemic to the health/fitness market, as some Fitbits ending up in drawers seems comparable to well-intentioned health club memberships that don’t get used,” Cihra said in a report. Fitbit faces competition from makers of dedicated fitness products such as Garmin ( GRMN ) and Under Armour ( UA ), but also from makers of smartwatches with fitness features such as Apple ‘s ( AAPL ) Apple Watch. Scalper1 News
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