Category Archives: stocks

Happy Hour: Build Your Own Smart Beta

I don’t own smart beta funds because I don’t believe they fit my strategy. Instead, I stick with a simple approach, four funds – a U.S., developed international, emerging markets, and treasury bonds – adjusting the allocation based on valuation. Basically, I move from expensive to cheap and if all equities are expensive then move from expensive to bonds. That’s the simplified version. I don’t believe smart beta would add enough “extra return” due to the adjustments. It’s very possible – I haven’t tested it – that I’d get a lower return from smart beta funds due to poor timing and higher costs, so I just stick with the lowest cost approach. Why pay more for something that I might not get? That’s the way I see it. It’s not perfect but it fits my mentality and it’s easy to manage. But if I could design the ideal smart beta fund around my strategy, it’d be based off a global index weighted by quality and price. The highest weighting would go to the highest quality, lowest priced stocks and move down from there. And I really see no reason to own every stock in said index. I’d eliminate all the highest priced, lowest quality stocks or expensive junk. And it would maintain a “cash position” if too many stocks exceeded a specific low quality and/or expensive limit. And it would do it all at a low cost. Pipe dreams, I know. Maybe someday it will be possible to build personally customized funds at a low cost. If it happens, I’m certain someone will screw it up. Anyways, the point of this was because of a slew of smart beta articles I saw this week. Smart betas “market-beating returns” are nice to look it. That’s the draw and the downfall. Too often people pick funds based on performance – not what best fits their strategy – because they don’t have a strategy or their strategy is to chase performance. So most investors will never see those returns. They’re not willing to accept periods of less than market returns to get the excess return over time. Most investors will get better returns simply by being more robotic. Less mistakes lead to higher returns over time. Doing nothing more often with a basket of basic index funds will get you a better return than chasing the best performing smart beta funds. All their doing is spending more money (via higher fees) to make the same costly mistakes. Once you’ve got doing nothing down pat, then look into smart beta and factor tilts. If it fits your strategy, then use it. And if not, then don’t. Last Call

Nvidia Conference: Virtual Reality, Smart Cars, Bartender Robots

Robot bartenders, a drone racetrack and liquid nitrogen-concocted food? Silicon Valley geeks know how to get down — and that’s just after-hours. Next week, graphics-chipmaker Nvidia ( NVDA ) is slated to host its annual GPU Technology Conference at the San Jose McEnery Conference Center where virtual reality, artificial intelligence and self-driving cars will take center stage. In conjunction, Nvidia will hold its analyst day Tuesday, when CEO Jen-Hsun Huang is scheduled to deliver a keynote talk. RBC Capital analyst Mitch Steves expects Nvidia to offer an update on its Pascal GPU architecture, virtual-reality offerings and automotive efforts. Steves upped his price target to 36 from 32 on Nvidia stock, which he rates a sector perform. “Overall, we are positive on the VR opportunity and believe that growth rates will remain robust,” he wrote in a research report. Virtual reality is getting a big splash this year, and tech names  Apple ( AAPL ), IBM ( IBM ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) are on deck to attend the GTC alongside myriad startups like BriSky, a maker of industrial drones, and Lucid, which makes 3D cameras. Under the GTC umbrella, BriSky, Lucid and 10 others will compete Wednesday for $100,000 during the Emerging Companies Summit. Another eight are slated to present their VR tech in an eight-minute elevator pitch for a chance at $15,000. There’s no denying the summit’s success, which helped launch VR headset-maker Oculus and video game-streaming service Gaikai into worldwide recognition. Facebook ( FB ) later acquired Oculus for $2 billion, and Sony ( SNE ) paid $380 million for Gaikai. Mellanox Technology ( MLNX ) and Xilinx ( XLNX ) will present during the OpenPower Summit, Tuesday through Friday. Moore’s Law physics make power a challenge within the industry. Data centers need faster chips, but those chips overheat quicker. Other splashy GTC events include keynotes from IBM Watson Chief Technology Officer Rob High and Toyota Research Institute (under Toyota Motors ( TM )) CEO Gill Pratt on Wednesday and Thursday. Separately, GTC will feature speakers from Nvidia, Twitter ( TWTR ), IBM, Baidu ( BIDU ), Google and Disney ’s ( DIS ) Pixar.

Microsoft Stock Gets Price Target Hike From Build Conference News

Microsoft ( MSFT ) demonstrated some impressive tech innovations at its Build conference this week in San Francisco, earning its stock a price target hike Friday from investment bank Cowen. Cowen analyst Gregg Moskowitz raised his price target on Microsoft stock to 59 from 57, but maintained his market perform rating based on valuation. Microsoft was down a fraction near 55 in early afternoon trading on the stock market today . “The level of innovation on display (at Build) was impressive, and updated metrics showed good progress,” Moskowitz said. “Still, at this valuation, significant further multiple expansion continues to look challenging to us.” The technology shown at the three-day Build conference, which ends Friday, is unlikely to have an impact on the company near term, he said. “Even by the standards of developer conferences, we found this year’s Build to be particularly forward-focused, with a slew of previews and (software development kits) made available for innovative new products and services, such as HoloLens, chat bots, and voice/image recognition AI,” Moskowitz said. “While there was little on display this week that is likely to have a meaningful impact on Microsoft’s financials in the near term, investors can take heart that the company under (CEO) Satya Nadella’s leadership has become a genuine thought leader, with the potential to create new platform categories around its fast growing Azure cloud. Thus, we came away from the event feeling incrementally more positive about the company’s future.” On Wednesday, Microsoft announced that its Windows 10 operating system is now on 270 million devices worldwide, up from 200 million at the end of January. Microsoft wants the OS to be on 1 billion devices by its fiscal 2018. The Redmond, Wash.-based company also said its Azure cloud computing platform now has 30 data center locations globally, up from 19 last year. Cowen’s report follows bullish notes on Microsoft Wednesday and Thursday from Pacific Crest Securities, RBC Capital Markets and Raymond James.