Category Archives: etf

Steve Gerbel Explains How To Manage Merger Arbitrage Risk (Video)

By DailyAlts Staff In this video , Steve Gerbel explains merger arbitrage by making an analogy to air travel: “They say the safest place for an airplane is in the hangar, but that’s not what airplanes are for,” he says. When we fly, we want the reward of air travel, and we’re willing to take on some risk in pursuit of that reward – but we want the risk to be as minimal as possible. This, according to hedge-fund expert Mr. Gerbel, is what the SilverPepper Merger Arbitrage Fund does: it seeks the highest rewards for the least risk. What is merger-arbitrage? Mr. Gerbel explains with an example of a stock trading at $8.50. When another firm announces its intention to acquire it at $10 per share, the share price of the acquisition target might rise to $9.70 – the remaining $0.30 reflects the uncertainty that the deal might not go through, and this is where arbitrage comes in. By buying shares of the acquisition target after the announcement but before the deal is closed, SilverPepper seeks to make a predictable $0.30 gain on the deal. “Dime after dime,” this adds up. According to Mr. Gerbel, 96% of all announced mergers have closed, but his firm still undertakes extensive research before entering a trade. Mr. Gerbel likens this to a pre-flight checklist to ensure an airplane is safe to fly.

7 Ways To Short Crude Oil Now

Crude oil has had a wild ride this year. It seemed every day in January, oil was making new lows before it bottomed in early February at $26.05.The last five weeks have been the opposite, with almost every day a green day for the black gold. Crude oil futures looked to have finally topped out at $42.49 earlier this week, before pulling back under $40.00 yesterday. Now it looks like shorts sellers of crude and oil related companies have a solid entry where they can start short positions. Both the commodity and oil stocks look to trend lower into earnings season and risk can be realized with stops at the highs of the year. Oil is due for a sell off and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if we saw a pullback to the $34-35 area sometime soon. While the pullback starts to form, investors can profit from a fall in oil by buying the ETFs below. In late January, I had a bullish view in oil that can be found here . In the write up, I suggested getting long various oil bull ETFs and a few oil stocks. If that advice was followed I would suggest taking profits, then waiting for another chance to get back in at lower prices. ETF/ETNs to short Crude oil VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA: DWTI ) – This ETN is an investment that seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times the opposite (inverse) of the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. DWTI is a very volatile product that allows bearish oil investors to maximize their gain. If oil falls 5% in a day, this ETN will rise 15%, maximizing the bearish bet that is made. DWTI will pull back fast when oil heads higher, so I only encourage short-term trading with this instrument. ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: SCO ) – This investment seeks to provide daily trading results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil SubindexSM. The “UltraShort” Funds seek daily results that match (before fees and expenses) two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of a benchmark. Very much like DWTI, this will move higher as crude oil moves lower. If oil is at $40 a barrel and falls to $39, we would see a 5% move higher in SCO reflecting the 2.5% move in crude lower. The main difference between SCO and DWTI is what magnitude, higher or lower, a trader is looking for. ETFs to short oil and gas companies Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: ERY ) – This ETF is an investment that seeks daily trading results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse of the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index. The fund creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in swap agreements, futures contracts, options, reverse repurchase agreements, ETFs, and other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. ERY is the same concept as DWTI, except the shorting aspect looks to focus on actual energy companies rather than crude oil futures. This might benefit a trader if he wants to go short a basket of energy stocks right before earnings season. The trader might be thinking that because of low oil prices, these energy companies will report negative earnings, leading to lower stock prices. This event would push ERY higher even if crude oil futures remained flat. ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (NYSEARCA: DUG ) – The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & GasSM Index. The index measures the performance of the oil and gas sector of the U.S. equity market. DUG will move in a similar manner to ERY, but a down move will only reflect twice the performance instead of three times. ProShares Short Oil & Gas ETF (NYSEARCA: DDG ) – This investment seeks daily trading results that correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & GasSM Index. The investment seeks daily investment results that correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & GasSM Index. DDG will move in a similar manner, but a down move will reflect the actual move instead of the leveraged gains that DUG and ERY have. A trader will utilize the above-mentioned instruments to short oil and gas stocks. They all offer different forms of risk and can be chosen depending on the trader’s willingness to accept risk. Other ETF/ETNs that will benefit Direxion Daily Nat Gas Rltd Bear 3X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GASX ) – This ETF seeks daily investment results, net of expenses, of 300% of the inverse of the performance of the ISE-REVERE Natural Gas IndexTM. Energy prices are typically correlated and move together. A move lower in oil will put pressure on natural gas prices, sending this ETF higher. iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ) – This ETN is a sympathy and fear play if oil prices were to return to the low $30s. This kind of event would create fear, bringing a bid back to the VIX. This ETN will head higher whenever the VIX and VIX futures head higher. Original Post

U.S. Manufacturing Shows Signs Of Healing: 3 Mutual Fund Picks

By the end of last year, U.S. manufacturing was tottering on the verge of a recession, after the collapse in commodity prices and a stronger dollar took a toll on American factories. However, based on encouraging readings on factory activity in March, it seems that manufacturing is on a resurgence. Philadelphia, New York and Richmond Fed manufacturing reports were impressive for this month. Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI also ticked up in March, while the ISM manufacturing index had already shown signs of a turnaround last month. A rise in new orders for U.S. factory goods in January points toward an easing in manufacturing slump. For now, even though there is volatility in the oil price movement, it has recovered considerably from its mid-February record low. Moreover, the Fed’s dovish stance in its two-day policy meeting last week has weakened the dollar considerably. In this scenario, it will be prudent to invest in mutual funds that focus on the industrial sector. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLI ) had gained 4.3% on a year-to-date basis, the second-highest among all the S&P 500 sectors. Factory Activity Positive in March Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area turned positive in March for the first time in seven months. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index advanced to 12.4 in March from a negative 2.8 in February. Any reading above zero shows that industrial activity is improving. Separately, new orders and shipments rose significantly. Factory activity in the New York region also expanded this month for the first time since last July. The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 0.6 in March from minus 16.6 in February. While new orders and shipments increased, more manufacturers expect business conditions in the region to improve further in the next six months. A measure of manufacturing activity in the lower U.S. Atlantic region too rose in March. The Richmond Manufacturing Index jumped to 22 this month, its highest level in almost six years. The index had been at a negative 4 in February. The index covers manufacturing activity in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and most of West Virginia. Flash PMI Ticks Up, ISM Turns Around Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4 in March. The PMI showed that manufacturing activity picked up this month from February’s 28-month low of 51. Output and new business volumes moved up at a slightly faster pace compared to February. This reading followed the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) reading on manufacturing activity in February. The ISM manufacturing index increased to 49.5, above January’s reading of 48.2. This indicated that fewer manufacturers had cut back on activities in February than in January. Any reading above 50 shows expansion. Add to this a robust surge in factory orders in January, and it becomes even clearer that the manufacturing sector is coming out of troubled waters. The Commerce Department had reported that new orders for U.S. factory orders rebounded 1.6% in January from a drop of 2.9% in December. New orders increased the most in seven months in January. Factory orders rose broadly in January, with orders for transportation equipment soaring 11.4%. Orders for on-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which indicates business confidence and spending plans, gained 3.4%. Inventory levels, on the other hand, dropped for the seventh straight month, indicating factories were progressing steadily on reducing inventory glut. Buy The 3 Best-Performing Industrial Mutual Funds It looks like the worst of U.S. manufacturing is coming to an end as recent reports on manufacturing activity in core factory hubs such as Philadelphia, New York and Richmond turn out to be promising. An uptick in Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI in March makes us believe that factory activities in the U.S. will improve. In fact, when it comes to the ISM manufacturing index, RBC Capital Markets’ Chief U.S. economist, Tom Porcelli, expects the index to climb above the 50 mark in April. He believes the negative impact of low oil prices and strong dollar will fade. Moreover, record factory orders data in January also show a release from the slump. Banking on this optimism, investors may bet on three industrial mutual funds that not only boast strong fundamentals, but have also given solid returns over a long period of time. These funds possess a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), have positive year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns, minimum initial investments within $5000 and carry a low expense ratio. Fidelity Select Industrials Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FCYIX ) invests the majority of its assets in securities of companies primarily involved in the research, development, manufacture, distribution, supply or sale of industrial products, services or equipment. The fund’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.9% and 10.1%, respectively. It carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2, and the annual expense ratio of 0.78% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Fidelity Select Industrial Equipment Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FSCGX ) invests a major portion of its assets in securities of companies principally engaged in the manufacture, distribution or servicing of products and equipment for the industrial sector. The fund’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.9% and 8.3%, respectively. FSCGX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1, and its annual expense ratio of 0.77% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Putnam Global Industrial Fund A (MUTF: PGIAX ) invests a large portion of its assets in securities of companies in the industrial products, services or equipment industries. Even though it invests in large and mid-sized companies worldwide, around 80% of its investments are in the U.S. PGIAX’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.2% and 8.8%, respectively. The fund carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1, and its annual expense ratio of 1.27% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Original Post