Can Alibaba Beat Earnings Expectations On This Important Metric?

By | May 4, 2016

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China e-commerce giant Alibaba Group ( BABA ) will post quarterly earnings before the market open Thursday, with investors hoping for a strong boost in the value of goods sold on its various platforms. Analysts are looking for the China e-commerce giant to report revenue of $3.58 billion, up 33% in local currency, and EPS of 56 cents, up 21% in local currency, for the company’s fiscal Q4 ended March 31. Alibaba reported better-than-expected fiscal Q3 earnings, but shares fell 4% that day due to a slowdown in a key metric known as gross merchandise volume. GMV is the total value of goods sold on the Alibaba platforms. In fiscal Q3, Alibaba’s GMV rose 23% to $149 billion, slowing from an increase of 28% in fiscal Q2. For the March quarter, Wall Street expects Alibaba is to report GMV growth of 22%, to $112 billion. Among those looking above that consensus, ITG Investment Research analyst Henry Guo projects GMV growth of 23.5%, while RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney pegs it at a more optimistic 29%. Mahaney rates Alibaba stock outperform, with a price target of 89. Alibaba stock was down a fraction, near 75.50, in morning trading in the stock market today . The stock is up 27% from a seven-month low of 59.25 touched on Feb. 9. Alibaba competes with JD.com ( JD ), Baidu ( BIDU ) and Tencent Holdings ( TCEHY ) in various segments of China’s Internet economy. JD is China’s largest online direct-sales retailer, Tencent dominates in messaging and gaming, and Baidu is China’s search leader. The four are the largest Internet companies in China and have been investing aggressively in new areas to spur growth. JD is scheduled to report earnings before the market open on May 9. Scalper1 News

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