Author Archives: Scalper1

T-Mobile, Comcast Debate: Open Internet Loopholes?

As T-Mobile US (TMUS) and Comcast test the regulatory waters under new federal net neutrality rules, oral arguments in a court challenge brought by broadband service providers aiming to overturn the rules are set to begin Friday. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit could rule on the net neutrality case by April, analysts say. If the Federal Communications Commission’s net neutrality — also called “Open Internet” — rules

The Trans-Pacific Partnership – Biggest Winners

By Carl Delfeld On Friday, I gave an overview of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deals and how the proposed changes will affect the United States. I also revealed one American company poised to benefit from those changes: Hormel (NYSE: HRL ). Today, I’m back to finish this thread by identifying two Pacific Rim countries that are poised to be the biggest winners. In trade pacts, it’s not difficult to figure out who the big winners will be. They’re usually the least-developed countries in the grouping because they have less to lose and the most to gain. For certain sectors, however, more-developed countries can hold a winning hand. Ahead of the Pack New Zealand, for example, is poised to come out ahead. New Zealand represents 35% of world dairy exports, so it’s basically the “Saudi Arabia of dairy.” Fully 37% of its land mass is devoted to agriculture with 48% contributing to total exports. Ninety percent of farm production is exported. Clearly, I’m not the only one who thinks New Zealand is an exceptional place from a risk-reward perspective. Many of the wealthiest people in the world, who have the resources to go anywhere and buy anything, have been quietly establishing escape hatches there. Two of the TPPs others winners hail from Southeast Asia – Malaysia and Vietnam, which still lack bilateral trade agreements with four countries in the pact, including the United States. Both count on TPP members for roughly one-third of their trade, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that the TPP would push Malaysia’s exports up roughly 10% and Vietnam’s up 30%. And the Winner Is… While Japan and America will get a modest boost of economic growth as this agreement takes effect, the big winner will be Vietnam. According to UBS report, the TPP could potentially boost Vietnam’s economy by 14% over the next five years. This country of 93 million is bursting with youthful energy, with 50% of its tech-savvy citizens under the age of 30. Its manufacturing wages are 60% of China’s, which is why Samsung ( OTC:SSNLF ) makes half of its cell phones here. About 20% of Vietnam’s GDP is attributed to foreign investment, and that will likely surge even higher. So far in 2015, foreign direct investment is up a stunning 53%; most of it headed to the manufacturing sector. A consumer boom is already underway. To put the potential in perspective, right now only 1.7% of Vietnamese own a car; in Thailand, that figure is 40%. Vietnam also has the lowest GDP per capita among TPP member states: $1,900. Peru is the next lowest at $6,800. Vietnam will become a manufacturing destination for industries that require low-wage labor to remain competitive. Sectors that need cheap wages, such as apparel, footwear, and textiles, should greatly benefit. Eurasia Group estimates that footwear and apparel exports will see a 50% boost over the next 10 years due to the trade pact. “Vietnam has already made huge gains in garment and footwear production, and these deals will help boost its comparative advantage as factories look to relocate from China, promoting more job creation and technology transfer,” said Johanna Chua, an economist at Citigroup. This explains why Vietnam’s exports have tripled in U.S. dollar terms since 2007 and its exports to North American markets are up an amazing 30-fold since 2000. The TPP should lessen the country’s reliance on the Chinese market and widen its appeal to markets such as Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, the country’s macro situation has markedly improved. A few years ago, inflation was running at 20%, but it’s now down to 2%. Interest rates have fallen from 15% to 6%, property markets have stabilized, and credit growth is up. Despite this progress, Vietnam’s stock market is still well off its high and trading at just eight times earnings. In addition, the current market value of all publicly traded companies in Vietnam is 30% of its GDP, while Thailand and the Philippines are trading at 95% and 115%, respectively. These gaps won’t last forever, so I encourage you to take action by blending the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSEARCA: VNM ) into your global portfolio. The ETF is a bit top heavy with its top 10 holdings representing 60% of total holdings. Don’t wait too long. This ETF has surged in the wake of the TPP negotiations, but has plenty of room to grow. Original Post

Am I Too Overweight In Mutual Funds?

As investors, one of our favorite words is diversification. We are taught to diversify our portfolios to avoid exposure to any one particular investment or sector of the market and achieve balance. One of the easiest ways to achieve diversification is through purchasing mutual funds, which I did at the beginning of my investing career. However, now that I have grown as an investor and now own 30 individual stocks, I wanted to take a look back at my current mutual funds to determine if too much of my portfolio is allocated to these diversified holdings. It is time to take a look at the five mutual funds I hold and determine if ACTION needs to be taken. The Mutual Funds Currently, I own five different mutual funds . In total, the mutual funds total $16,200, or 25.5% of my total portfolio. These five funds are located in two different accounts, which impacts the accessibility of the capital if I were to decide to make a move. Roth IRA Three of the funds are located in my Roth IRA. I opened these positions during the infancy stages of my dividend growth investing career. At the time, I wanted both dividend income and diversification, so focusing on dividend paying mutual funds sounded like a great idea. So I took the capital I had and divided it evenly among the three funds listed below. ACLAX – 119.803 Shares; MV $1,994; 3.0% of Portfolio – This fund is a four star, silver rated fund on Morningstar. Some of the top ten holdings include: RSG , EMR (One of our favorites), NTRS , OXY , IMO , and CAG . The major selling points on this fund were the diversification, historical performance, strong/consistent management team, and the fact that the fund has a mid-cap focus but still pays a strong dividend. The one major downfall of this fund is the expense ratio, which is slightly over 1%. However, I knew that a fund centered on finding mid-cap funds would cost more than others due to the extra research and time needed to manage the lesser-known stocks. OIEIX – 138.551 Shares; MV $1,916; 2.9% of Portfolio – Another fours star, silver rated fund. This fund does not mess around and is focuses on large cap, value stocks. Some of the largest holdings include: JPM , XOM , JNJ , MO , AAPL , PNC , PFE , and HD . My favorite aspect about this stock is that it pays a monthly dividend. While my check usually isn’t that large on a monthly basis, as evidenced in last month’s dividend income summary, it is nice to see your position grow on a monthly basis. Isn’t that right Realty Income shareholders? MEIAX – 55.556 Shares, MV $1,952; 3.0% of Portfolio – Also a four star, silver fund. This fund has some overlap with OIEIX as some of the top holdings include: JPM , JNJ , PM , PFE , LMT , USB , and MMM (one of my favorites). However, unlike OIEIX, this fund pays a quarterly dividend and has a lower annual fee than the other two above. Since these funds are held in a personal retirement account and are not affiliated with my employer sponsored retirement account, I have the ability to trade these funds without restrictions and liquidate my positions at any moment. Employer Sponsored Roth 401(k) Accounts Like most of us that are still working for an employer, we have a 401k plan that allows us to select from a small pool of mutual funds or the company’s stock. For my company, we are allowed to select from a wide variety of Vanguard mutual funds. Vanguard funds are nice because of the extremely low expense ratios. In this account, I own two different mutual funds. VWNAX – 149.224 shares; $9,726.42; 14.9% of Portfolio. This Vanguard fund is a large-cap value fund with an expense ratio of just .27%, significantly lower than the three funds disclosed above. Some of the top ten holdings include JPM , MDT , PFE , BAC , OTCQB:MFST , WFC , PM , and PNC . If you recall, I left my current employer in March and returned later in the year. This was the mutual fund that I contributed to in my first stint at my current employer and I am no longer contributing to this mutual fund. Therefore, the only changes in value/shares owned are related to changes in market price and the receipt of dividends. Another interesting nugget about this fund is that it pays a semi-annual dividend in June and December. So it doesn’t pay frequently, but when it does, the dividend income checks have a huge impact on my monthly dividend income figures. Want proof? Check out my dividend income summary from the last time I received a payout. VINIX ­- 224 shares; $9,726.42; .8% of portfolio very similar to the last mutual fund. However, two small differences. First VINIX focuses on mirroring the S&P 500 versus investing in dividend stocks so the yield is slightly lower. Second, VINIX pays a quarterly dividend versus a semi-annual dividend. When I re-joined my old company, I thought it might be a good idea to invest in a new mutual fund to diversify my holdings. Since this position will keep growing, I didn’t want to become too overweight in one mutual fund. So now I will share the wealth in Vanguard and continue to max my contributions in this fund so I can receive the full benefit of my employer’s 401k match, which can be a very powerful tool for dividend investors. Analysis As I compiled the section above, there were a few things that jumped out at me. Here are some of the thoughts that came to my mind. There is a lot of Overlap ­- This became evident when I started listing out some of the major holdings in each fund. Outside of ACLAX, which focuses on mid-cap dividend stocks, there is a lot of overlap in holdings in the other four mutual funds. Which makes sense considering that these funds are focused on generating a dividend from large cap stocks and there are only so many stocks to select from. However, if my goal is to achieve diversification among these holdings, do I really need four different funds investing the same pool of stocks? Wouldn’t one suffice? Why am I paying Such High Expense Fees – Is it terrible that my answer is “I don’t know why?” At the time of investment, it made sense to invest in mutual funds. But I wasn’t as much of an expense hawk as I am now so I was willing to overlook the high expense ratios to achieve my goal of diversification. In this day in age, with ETFs designed to achieve the same goal as mutual funds with minimal fees, why on earth am I voluntarily paying this annual fee? A stupid/reckless mistake on my part. I understand paying a fee for a mutual fund that invests in mid or small cap stocks because these companies require more time and research to identify/trade successfully. But paying a fee to invest in a pool of highly covered large cap stocks seems ridiculous going forward. Lack of REITs in Holdings – This one kind of surprised me, especially considering I selected these funds with a dividend-focused attitude. I did not see one REIT in any of the mutual funds I own. I am sure there is some reason why and the tax rules may be too unfavorable for fund families. This was just an interesting observation to me so I wanted to share it all with you. Where do I Go From Here? Based on my analysis and observations above, I think the answer to the title of this article is yes. Holding five mutual funds, which account for over 25% of my portfolio , seems a little heavy. Especially considering that many of the mutual funds invest in the same pool of stocks and are accomplishing the same goals. Well, first things first. Let’s talk about the liquidity of these funds. Since two of my mutual funds are in an employer-sponsored plan, there isn’t much I can do outside of investing my capital in a different mutual fund. And trust me, Lanny and I have performed plenty of research on the available plans in the portfolio and we have selected two of the best. So as of now, I am not going to touch the two Vanguard funds and I will continue to invest in VINIX with each paycheck. Our employer matches 50% of all contributions, so I will continue to contribute the maximum amount each paycheck that will allow me to receive the full employer match next year. Plus, the expense ratio is very low, which is a huge positive compared to the other funds. While I can’t liquidate my two Vanguard funds, it is a completely different story for the three mutual funds in my Roth IRA. I have the freedom to trade these funds as I please. When I initially invested in these funds, I was at a different stage of my investing career and I needed the diversification. However, now that I have grown as an investor, owning 30 individual stocks, there is no need to diversify through owning independent mutual funds. The fees are too high and diversification is achieved through my employer’s plan. So after I receive my capital gain distribution in December, which always results in a nice payout, I am most likely going to sell these funds and use the ~$6,000 to invest in some powerhouse dividend stocks. Which stocks will I invest in? I’m not entirely sure yet. I’m going to special screener in the next month unique to this situation that will help me identify how I should allocate the $6,000 in capital when it becomes available. The screener will look to identify great companies with a long-term track record with a yield in excess of the yield I am receiving on these dividend-focused mutual funds. I’m not certain yet, but I believe one of the moves I am going to make is to invest half in Realty Income based on the results of my last stock analysis. Another option is to focus on one of the stocks on my “Always Buy” list or one of the high yielding stocks on our foundation stock listing. What are your thoughts on my strategy? What percentage of your portfolio are allocated to mutual funds? Do you think I am overweight? Should I consider investing in ETFs in lieu of mutual funds or dividend stocks with the capital to maintain the diversification? Do you have any recommendations for stocks that I should consider?