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Gas Natural’s (EGAS) CEO Gregory Osborne on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Gas Natural, Inc. (NYSEMKT: EGAS ) Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call May 9, 2016 16:30 ET Executives Deborah Pawlowski – IR Gregory Osborne – President & CEO Jim Sprague – VP & CFO Kevin Degenstein – COO & Chief Compliance Officer Analysts Liam Burke – Wunderlich Securities John Bair – Ascend Wealth Advisors Operator Greetings, and welcome to the Gas Natural Inc. First Quarter 2016 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn conference over to Ms. Deborah Pawlowski of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin. Deborah Pawlowski Thank you, and good morning everyone. We welcome you to our 2016 first quarter earnings teleconference call. We certainly appreciate your time today and your interest in Gas Natural. Joining me on the call are Gregory Osborne, President and Chief Executive Officer; Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Kevin Degenstein, our Chief Operating Officer and Chief Compliance Officer as well as Vince Parisi, Vice President and General Counsel. Gregory and Jim are going to review the quarter and year and also give an update on our outlook and strategic progress and then we will open it up for a question-and-answer session. You should have a copy of the financial results were released yesterday after market closed and if not you can access this on our company’s website at www.egas.net. As you’re aware, we may make some forward-looking statements on this call during the formal discussion as well as during the Q&A. These statements apply to future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties as well as other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from what is stated on today’s call. These risks and uncertainties and other factors are provided in the earnings release as well as with other documents filed by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents can be found on our website or at sec.gov. I would also like to point out that during today’s call we will discuss some non­-GAAP measures which we believe will be useful in evaluating our performance. You should not consider the presentation of this additional information in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared to record of this GAAP. We have provided reconciliations as non-GAAP comparable GAAP measures on the table accompanying today’s earnings release. So with that, let me turn it over to you Gregory to begin. Gregory Osborne Thank you, Deb and good afternoon everyone. I appreciate your time today and your interest in Gas Natural. Our strategic and operational progress was matched by unfavorable record setting warm weather in most of our markets. In fact 71% of our gross margin decline was due to weather. Let me first highlight our strategic and operational progress. As you may know in February we announced a proposal to form a new organizational structure subject to regulatory approval that will line our eight regulated utility operations under one fully owned subsidiary. We believe this structure will create efficiencies, streamline regulatory processes while simplifying our financing arrangements and enhancing financial flexibility. In conjunction with this proposal we have reached agreement with lenders to refinance and consolidate our debt at the parent company level. As previously noted, the new $99 million debt facilities will replace our existing debt agreements and provide more balance to our capital structure placing closer to a 50-50 debt to equity ratio. We also expect the new credit arrangement will provide us with much greater flexibility. Secondly, the implementation of the final phase of our enterprise resource planning, or ERP, system is now complete. This has been a major undertaking and facilitates operational efficiency and scalability. Having divested of our non-core assets in 2015, we are focusing our energies and resources on the remaining four markets. North Carolina and Maine are underserved natural gas markets with higher growth potential and we’re leveraging our larger scale in Montana and Ohio. In the first quarter of 2016 we had an approximately 340 customers. On the regulatory front, stipulation and recommendation between Ohio utilities and Ohio commission staff related to a 2014 investigative audit of our Ohio utilities scheduled for hearing tomorrow, May 10. Our financial results were unfavorably affected by much warmer weather in the first three months of 2016 compared with the prior year although our markets are geographically diverse which typically mitigates the impact of unseasonably warm weather. In this winter, the weather was much warmer across all markets we serve. Looking ahead in all of our jurisdictions, we’ll be evaluating mechanisms that the fix components were service fee structure in order to reduce the impact of unfavorable weather conditions on our financial performance. Of course these mechanisms are subject to regulatory approval. Additionally, first quarter results from our main operations were unfavorably affected by the closure of two industrial facilities and the reduction in rates for third transportation customer. At the beginning of the second quarter we established a new dividend policy that enables greater capital investments for higher returns and positions us for the future dividend increases in line of our earnings growth. The new annual dividend rate is $0.30 per share or equal quarter payments of $7.50 per share. The dividend rate resulted in a pay ratio more in line with our peers. And it also sets our dividend at a sustainable level. The plan to grow dividend as its peer ratio as earnings grow in conjunction with the reduction of dividend from its previous annual rate of $0.54 per share, executive management and the board are taking reductions in the compensation for 2016. I will now turn over to Jim to fully review the financial details. Jim? Jim Sprague Thank you, Gregory, and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Our first quarter 2016 financial results reflect lower full service distribution through point, primarily due to warmer weather in all of our markets as Gregory mentioned. Consolidated revenue was down due to volume declines and lower gas prices. Gross margin was $14.7 million, down 16.5% from the prior year first quarter. The majority or 71% of the decline was due to lower volume attributable to warmer weathers in the prior year. The following factors also contributed to the gross margin decline. $517,000 due to two plant closures and the rate decline for our Kojan [ph] facility; and two, $376,000 from the sale of our Pennsylvania and Kentucky utilities last year. Consolidated operating expenses were $9.2 million, down 6% compared with the prior year quarter primarily as a result of reduced legal cost. Reflecting the decline in gross margin for lower weather dividend through put, consolidated net income for the quarter was $2.7 million or $0.26, down from $4.9 million or $0.46 per share in the 2015 first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations, a non-GAAP number was $7.7 million compared with $10.5 million in the 2015 first quarter. According to the balance sheet, we had $4 million of cash in March 31, 2016, up from $2.7 million at year end 2015. Notes payable and balance withdrawn against our line in credit were $52 million. Our refinance is expected in the latter half of the year after regulatory approval on our reorganization. It will provide us additional capital and greater borrowing capacity. Cash provided by operating activities increased $1.5 million to $9.4 million on lower working capital requirements as a result of warmer weather. Capital expenditures were $2.3 million. Our CapEx for 2016 is currently budgeted at approximately $4.5 million to $5 million. We are evaluating that budget now given the reduction in our dividend, the expected refinancing and the timing of unusual expenses. With that summary, let me turn the call back to Gregory. Gregory? Gregory Osborne Thank you, Jim. Our management team recently met for a strategic summit to advance our strategic growth plans. For the immediate future, our growth plans were focused on expanding our customer base and through put in each of our four utility markets. Across our current market footprint, we have steadily increased our customer base and we believe we can step that up out of the new proposed capital and financial structure currently under consideration by our regulators. Over the next several years, our plan is to drive Gas Natural’s return of equity to the high single digits were trailing by average of approximately 5%. Now let’s go over now for our line of questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. At this time we will be conducting the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Liam Burke of Wunderlich. Please go ahead. Liam Burke Thank you, good afternoon. I know you said record of favorable weather for the quarter, but could you give us a sense on both Maine and North Carolina properties on how the underlying economic outlook is going, especially in Maine where you saw some plant closures which exacerbated the weather situation? Gregory Osborne Liam, how are you doing today? Liam Burke Good, thanks, Greg. How are you? Gregory Osborne Good. Kevin, do you want to speak to the markets particularly in Maine and also North Carolina? Kevin Degenstein Yes, I’d love to. Good afternoon, and thank you for the question. I’ll start with Maine. It’s probably the best place because it’s where we’ve seen some paper mill loss and a power generating loss. But if you look at the potential going forward we’re quite optimistic with the Maine system. You really need two pieces to come in place, and that’s supply pipelines which our plan to come to that area which will drive down the market cost of natural gas which is higher than the NYMEX index and tends to be probably one of the higher markets in the country, and then the potential is you look further oil has been creeping back up, a little over $40 a barrel. It’s off its all-time low, and as the differential gets greater we tend to get more demand for services. We’re already starting to see an uptick from the bottom of demand for growth opportunities to convert on existing main and to run facilities to new customers. So we’re optimistic that ultimately the potential in Maine is there and that there is growth potential in those communities that we serve and that we can ultimately grow that market as we had planned and ultimately it will be a good utility that becomes a normal diverse customer group of utilities. When you look at North Carolina, we’ve also got opportunity there to continue the filling behind what we run. We’ve got very favorable rates there, propane tends to be higher and we’re in the process of looking at opportunities in the poultry market and looking at possibilities of assistance there based on subsidies and those types of things. So we see both those markets as real growth potential. Recognizing there was somewhat a glitch in Maine just based on pricing, but we see and we believe that will change. Liam Burke Great, thank you, Kevin. And this is just a point of clarification. You did say your CapEx budget is $4.5 million to $5 million this year? Gregory Osborne That is correct for the systems across the four organizations. Liam Burke Okay, great. Thank you very much. Gregory Osborne You’re welcome. Operator The next question comes from John Bair of Ascend Wealth Advisors. Please go ahead. John Bair Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. First question was related to some recent announcements by Kinder Morgan about the failure to get necessary permit approvals to build some pipelines that would be delivering Marseilles [ph] gas to New England. And I’m wondering how that plays into your growth potential in Maine since that gas has got to go through those New York and Massachusetts to get up that way, so can you talk about that a little bit? Gregory Osborne Go ahead, Kevin. Kevin Degenstein Yes, this is Kevin. Ultimately, diversity is to find Maine is critical and we’d love to see that, and obviously we’re disappointed that any pipelines that can’t come from the lower 48 up into that area ’cause it provide this alternate supply. But we do recognize today that the Oagland [ph] market has softened. It’s not as high as it was a couple of years back when we had the extreme cold weather, and those prices are nudging down. As it stands today, if we don’t get pipelines from the lower 48, we are subject to Canadian gas and the Oagland [ph] market prices. But we do enhancing that market’s softening, and it’s not the prices it was a couple of years back. And we see ourselves trending towards being more competitive. However, yes, any pipelines coming from the lower 48 will be very much welcomed by anybody in the Northeast, not just gas. John Bair Politicians does seem to agree with you on that, but they’re denying the permit. So if I’m understanding it correctly then if we can’t get adequate supplies within the U.S. coming up that way you have access to Canadian gas coming across the border then? Is that a fair statement? Gregory Osborne That is correct. We have supplies from Canada. Really what supplies from the South does is give us a price advantage and hopefully lowers the price. But as it stands today, capacity into Canada is not limiting our growth potential. John Bair Okay, very good. Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. I’ll now turn the conference back over to Greg Osborne for any closing remarks. Gregory Osborne Thank you, Ben. In closing I’d like to thank you all for joining us this afternoon for our 2016 First Quarter Earnings Teleconference. I’d also like to thank all of our employees for their dedicated hard work and the commitment to Gas Natural’s long term success. Finally, I’d like to thank our board for their ongoing support and advice. This is an exciting time for Gas Natural as we continue to execute our strategy to establish our business as a benchmark gas utility with greater earnings power. Thank you. Operator This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. 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Crash Imminent Warning Removed By NIRP Crash Indicator

The NIRP Crash Indicator’s signal changed from its pre-crash or crash imminent Orange to its Yellow cautionary reading level on the close of the market on May 9, 2016. The signal had gone from Yellow to Orange prior to the U.S. stock market’s opening on April 28. During the eight day period that the indicator’s reading was Orange ended on May 9, 2016, the S&P 500 went from 2095.15 to 2058.69, a decline of 1.7%. The signal went to Orange from Yellow because the exchange rates of the yen versus both the euro and the US dollar had stabilized during the week ended May 6, 2016. Additionally, both the euro and the dollar appreciated by more than 1.1% versus the yen on Monday May 9, 2016. Please note: For the NIPR Crash indicator to change from the crash imminent Orange or a crash Red reading to Yellow requires that the exchange rate between the yen and dollar be stable for an extended period of time or that the dollar and euro advance significantly versus the yen. An increase in the indicator’s reading from Yellow to Orange requires a steady advance or a significant one day advance for the yen versus the dollar. The NIRP Crash Indicator was developed in February 2016, from my research on the Crash of 2008. My research revealed the metrics that could have been used to predict the Crash of 2008 and its V-shaped reversal off of the March 2009 bottom. See my Seeking Alpha “Japan’s NIRP Increases Probability of Global Market Crash” March 4, 2016 report. The metrics are now powering the indicator. Information about the NIRP Crash Indicator and the daily updating of its four signals ( Red: Full-Crash; Orange: Pre-Crash; Yellow: Caution; Green: All-Clear) is available at www.dynastywealth.com . Since inception the NIRP Crash Indicator’s signals have proven to be very reliable. Throughout the entire month of March, the signal for the NIRP Crash Indicator had remained at the cautionary Yellow and the S&P 500 experienced little volatility as compared to the extremely volatile first two months of 2016. For the month of March, the S&P 500 increased by 4%. The indicator’s reading went from Yellow to Orange after the market’s close on Friday April 1, 2016 . For the following week ended April 8, 2016, the S&P 500 experienced its most volatility since February of 2016 and closed down 1.5% for the week. The signal’s second Orange reading occurred before the market’s April 28, 2016 open. From the Thursday, April 28 open to the Friday, April 29 close, the S&P 500 declined by 1.2%. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ) and the Dow 30 (NYSEARCA: DIA ) ETFs closing at their lowest prices since April 12, 2016 on April 29. See also my SA post “NIRP Crash Indicator’s Sell Signals Very Reliable for April 2016″ May 3, 2016. The primary metric powering the NIRP Crash Indicator are sudden increases in volatility for exchange rates of the yen versus the dollar and other currencies. The significant appreciation in the yen versus the dollar in 2008 accurately predicted the crash of 2008, and the recent declines of the markets to multi-year lows in August of 2015 and February 2016. In my April 11, 2016 ” Yen Volatility Is Leading Indicator For Market Sell-Offs ” SA post and my video interview below entitled “Yen Volatility Causes Market Crashes”, I provide further details on the phenomenon of the yen being a leading indicator of market crashes. The rationale for the for yen volatility or its appreciating significantly versus the dollar being a leading indicator of crashes is because the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar are the world’s two largest single country reserve currencies. For this reason, the yen is the best default safe-haven currency utilized by investors during any U.S. and global economic and market crises. When crises unfold, historically the U.S. dollar — by far the world’s most liquid and largest safe-haven currency — is susceptible to dramatic declines until the storm has passed. Savvy investors know that the U.S. is, unquestionably, considered the world’s leading economy and markets. They know that upon a crash of the U.S. stock market, the initial knee-jerk reaction would be a simultaneous crash of the U.S. dollar versus the world’s second leading single-nation currency. The yen is currently the default-hedge currency. Even though the euro, arguably, ranks with the U.S. dollar as the world’s top reserve currency, it is not the preferred hedge against the greenback. The euro is shared by 19 of the European Union’s member countries that have wide-ranging social and economic policies, and political persuasions. For this reason, and also because Japan is considered to be one of the most fiscally conservative countries on the planet, the default currency is the yen. The U.S. dollar does not experience extended crashes versus the Swiss franc and the British pound during times of crises because each of the underlying countries has economies much smaller than Japan’s. From my ongoing research coverage of the spreading negative rates and the devastating effect that they could potentially have on the global banking system, the probability is high that the major global stock indices including the S&P 500 will begin a significant decline by 2018 at the latest. My April 11, 2016 article entitled, “Negative Rates Could Send S&P 500 to 925 If Not Eliminated” , provides details about the potential mark down of the S&P 500 likely being in stages. I highly recommend you also watch my 9 minute, 34 second video interview with SCN’s Jane King entitled “Why Negative Rates could send the S&P 500 to 925”. In the video, I explain the math behind why the S&P 500’s declining to below 1000 may be the only remedy to eliminate the negative rates. The video also reveals some of my additional findings on the crash of 2008. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tesla ‘Cousin’ SolarCity Trims 2016 View On Nevada, ITC Effect

Nevada’s net-metering decision torched Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) “cousin” SolarCity ( SCTY ) late Monday, after the No. 1 residential solar installer cut 2016 installation guidance and reported a 150-megawatt dip in expected Q1 bookings. SolarCity also reported a wider-than-expected Q1 loss and was in the red, minus items, for the 13th consecutive quarter. Revenue, however, topped the expectations of 18 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, and SolarCity beat its own installation forecast. In after-hours trading following the earnings release, SolarCity stock crashed more than 15%, after rising 3.1% in Monday’s regular session, at 22.51. As of Monday’s close, shares are down 56% this year. For Q1, SolarCity reported $123 million in sales, up 82% vs. the year-earlier quarter, and smashing Wall Street expectations for $108.4 million. But losses per-share minus items deepened to $2.56 vs. consensus views for $2.31. Last year, SolarCity pledged to curb its annual 80% growth rate in order to turn around profits. During Q1, SolarCity installed 214 megawatts, up 40% year over year and beating its own guidance for 180 MW. For Q2, SolarCity expects 185 MW in installations, which would be down 2% vs. Q2 2015. SolarCity also guided to $2.70-$2.80 losses per share ex items, widening from $1.61 in the year-earlier quarter and missing the consensus for $2.13. For the year, SolarCity now expects 1 gigawatt to 1.1 GW in installations vs. earlier views for 1.25 GW, noting that Q1 bookings were about 150 MW lower than anticipated and are unlikely to be made this year. SolarCity said Nevada averaged about for 20 MW in quarterly installations. The company exited the state in December after Nevada regulators opted to cut net-metering payments to solar customers, which makes the economics of installing solar energy systems less attractive to users. Top rival Sunrun ( RUN ) also exited Nevada. Spooked by Nevada’s move, some potential customers have backed off booking solar installations, SolarCity said Monday. And the extension of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit (ITC), a key solar subsidy, beyond what had been a 2016 deadline — good in the long run — removed the urgency to get projects done right away. “Pending regulatory decisions in California, Massachusetts and New Hampshire (which have since been largely resolved) further delayed solar purchasing decisions,” SolarCity wrote in its earnings release. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is chairman of SolarCity, whose CEO is his cousin, Lyndon Rive. The two companies have a battery-technology partnership.