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The IBM ( IBM ) revenue numbers stand out like a broken arm. Deep into a major transition that has shed multibillion-dollar businesses, IBM has reported 16 straight quarters of year-over-year revenue declines. And it’s not done yet. Another three quarters of declines are expected by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. In the past several years, Big Blue has shed computer hardware units, reshuffled its software businesses and realigned its workforce to reduce costs as it focuses on growth areas such as cloud computing, Big Data analytics, security and mobile computing — areas that it calls strategic imperatives. Since 2010, IBM has invested about $30 billion in these areas. They include the creation of a new business unit, Cognitive Business Solutions, with its backbone being IBM’s advanced Watson computer. Watson is being used in health care, the Internet of Things, analytics and other fields. IBM says Watson can address a total market opportunity near $2 trillion. “We continue to make significant progress in our transformation to higher value,” IBM CEO Virginia Rometty said in the company’s first-quarter earnings release last Monday. “We strengthened our existing portfolio while investing aggressively in new opportunities like Watson Health, Watson Internet of Things and hybrid cloud.” The IBM transformation is showing progress. IBM revenue from strategic imperatives rose 26% in 2015 in constant currency to $29 billion, compared with a 12% decline in overall revenue to $81.7 billion. Strategic imperatives now comprise 35% of total revenue, up from 22% two years ago. IBM has targeted strategic imperative revenue to reach $40 billion and at least 40% of revenue by 2018. But when will the revenue slide reverse? UBS analyst Steven Milunovich, in a research report, says that 2017 is likely the turning point. “IBM is trying hard to transform its business and also to change the narrative from legacy loser to cloud and cognitive winner,” Milunovich wrote. He added, “Just because strategic imperatives gains the upper hand does not mean IBM’s top line is off to the races, but it could mean the worst would be over.” As to whether Watson and its Cognitive Business can save IBM, Milunovich says that it’s too soon to know, as IBM does not disclose the Watson-driven revenue just yet. “Old IBM is in secular decline, but we believe cognitive eventually could create a material new revenue stream drawing from outside existing IT budgets. We don’t expect revenue to be material for another three years, but the narrative is important now, and eventually Watson could be a $10 billion business,” he wrote. Milunovich has a neutral rating on IBM and price target of 150. IBM stock was flat, near 148, in afternoon trading in the stock market today . IBM stock hit its all-time high of 215.90 in March 2013. It hit a six-year low in February but is up 27% since then. IBM Turnaround Remains ‘Painful’ Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Gracha has a more negative view on IBM and says that revenue won’t stabilize until 2018. “We see a painful multiyear turnaround from here, which drives underperformance,” Garcha wrote in a research note. “We believe that large parts of IBM’s business (hardware, operating systems, services) are being impacted by the cloud.” As to Watson, he said, “While we do believe the opportunity here is significant, it is also very early, with the commercial impact of such initiatives that may take several years, if not decades.” Garcha has an underperform rating on IBM stock and a price target of just 110. Other giants in the information technology field are also going through transitions and struggling to accelerate revenue growth. They include Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE ), Oracle ( ORCL ), EMC ( EMC ) and Cisco Systems ( CSCO ). “We believe the competitive challenges are emerging from companies seeking to build a business model similar to IBM’s, notably Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Cisco, Oracle, EMC and Dell,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani in a research note. Of these competitors, he says, HPE is closest to IBM’s model, with Cisco another. Dell is acquiring EMC. Daryanani has a sector perform rating on IBM stock and a price target of 155. Scalper1 News
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