Tag Archives: technology

3 Biotech Stocks Buoyed By Potential Blockbuster Drugs

Sentiment on biotech stocks overall ebbs and flows, but biotech companies can carve very individual paths. Drug company investors look to product pipelines to spot potential growth, especially for scientifically novel assets that can stand out from the pack. These three biotech stocks have outperformed the group in the past few months thanks to potential blockbuster drugs. • Juno Therapeutics ( JUNO ) is up 68% since its early February all-time low — which was also the IBD Medical-Biomed/Biotech group’s nearly two-year low point — as investors have regained confidence in its cancer-fighting pipeline. Juno is working in the cutting-edge field of cell therapy, in which patients’ own cells are re-engineered to help their immune systems kill cancer cells, in this case the chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells. Juno’s leading candidate, JCAR015, is in midstage testing for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, for which it showed stunning success rates in earlier trials. Last month, its partner Celgene ( CELG ) said it would exercise its option to commercialize JCAR015 and two similar candidates outside of North America and China, under a 10-year, $1 billion partnership that the two companies inked last summer. Also last month, Juno showed off some of its earlier-stage CAR-T candidates at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research, targeting different receptors in other types of blood cancer. When the abstracts for the meeting were released in March, Leerink analyst Michael Schmidt wrote that Juno’s stock should be supported by “clinical data readouts supporting Juno’s business strategy to develop differentiated, potentially best-in-class CAR-T products that could generate translational insights in hematologic and solid tumor indications.” • BioMarin Pharmaceutical ( BMRN ) is up 29% since its early February 20-month low as it recovered from the FDA’s rejection of its muscular-dystrophy drug Kyndrisa in January. At its R&D day last month, BioMarin rolled out strong early data for two pipeline candidates, one for hemophilia and one for achondroplasia, a form of dwarfism. The hemophilia data brought particular attention, as it was the first-ever evidence on gene therapy for the disease in humans. After the therapy, BMN 270, was delivered once to eight patients, all of their conditions went from severe to mild-to-moderate. This was far better than expected. In a video recorded for clients a couple of weeks later, Evercore ISI analyst John Scotti described the mood at BioMarin’s event: “When they started presenting (the data), jaws just went to the floor. There was an audible gasp in the room.” The market for hemophilia A, the most common type, runs at $4 billion a year. Analysts say a successful gene therapy could massively disrupt the market of clotting factors that have to be infused weekly at least. • Intercept Pharmaceuticals ( ICPT ) is up 52% from its 28-month low in February, after its lead drug Ocaliva passed a major hurdle to market last month. An FDA advisory committee voted to grant it accelerated approval for a liver condition called primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), which the agency has until May 29 to decide on. While the PBC market is expected to bring in a healthy revenue stream for Intercept, the potential blockbuster indication is in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), a liver-scarring disease that affects millions of Americans but has no treatment. Intercept is conducting a large phase-three trial of Ocaliva in the disease, with a launch not expected for several years. But the FDA panel vote did imply that the experts see the benefits as outweighing the drug’s known safety issues. Ocaliva’s potential has driven buyout speculation around Intercept stock, which has also helped to push up shares. A particular burst of this came on Feb. 12 when anonymous sources suggested that the company was exploring a sale, though nothing’s yet come of it.

Speculation Apple At Root Of Google Q1 Ad-Commission Hike Persists

Google is making more money from mobile search, as Yahoo ( YHOO ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) ad platforms falter. But it’s not all gravy, as parent Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Q1 earnings attest. The good news is that clicks on Google’s mobile search ads are rising fast. Mobile rose from 44% of all Google clicks in Q2 2015 to 57% in Q1 2016, says digital marketing firm Merkle. But mobile ad clicks continue to pay less than desktop ad clicks because consumers buy less often on smartphones. Google’s average cost of a click on one of its ads fell 9% in Q1 vs. Q1 2015. Lower-priced mobile clicks were a big factor. Google aims to drive mobile cost-per-clicks (CPCs) higher with new ad technology. There’s also the matter of traffic acquisition costs (TAC). That’s where Apple ( AAPL ) may or may not come in. Google’s overall TAC — what it pays partner websites, both desktop and mobile, in fees for carrying its ads — rose 13% in Q1, to $3.8 billion. Higher TAC shrunk Alphabet’s earnings, which missed Wall Street estimates. More alarming to analysts was that TAC paid to “distribution partners” jumped 33% to $1.22 billion. Google’s search engine is the default on most mobile devices, and it’s the default search engine for Apple’s Safari browser. There’s been speculation over whether Apple and Google will renew the Safari contract. To some analysts, the 33% jump in “distribution partner” TAC was a red flag. On the company’s Q1 earnings call last month, Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat attributed the TAC hike to general mobile trends and new advertising technology — and not to any one major contract renewal. Mobile TAC is higher than desktop TAC, Porat said. But analysts wonder. “I certainly can’t rule out a higher Safari TAC rate tied to a renewal,” Mark Ballard, senior research director at Merkle, told IBD. “There are so many moving pieces here, and Google and Apple have been very tight-lipped about their dealings over the years. “It very well could be a combination of higher Safari traffic share and TAC rate. (But) Google has made some moves in the past few quarters to significantly ramp up the monetization of its mobile results. This additional revenue may be coming at a higher TAC.” Google Ad Contracts ‘Have Potentially Changed’ Ballard notes that Google in late 2015 added a third ad atop mobile-search results. Growing use of product listing ads (PLAs) in mobile phone search results may be another factor. Google’s Q2 earnings in July could provide more evidence either way. “We think the terms of (Google’s) contracts have potentially changed and could be another driving factor of the growing TAC,” Evan Wilson, a Pacific Crest analyst, said in a research report. “At this point, we’ve modeled (TAC) increases to be gradual and not a significant new headwind. “We’re going to keep a close eye on news of a potential new Apple deal, as this would be a primary suspect to further fuel this dynamic.” The big picture, though, is that if TAC rises sharply, it would be a problem for Google’s profitability, whether or not Apple is directly involved. At RBC Capital, analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a research note: “We view the Q1 TAC trends as one of the clear negatives of the quarter. That 8.5% TAC rate for Google Sites is a material step up. We wonder whether a renegotiated Apple contract had anything to do with this. (But) we are modeling modest growth in TAC going forward.” Documents released in January in the ongoing Google- Oracle ( ORCL ) court battle revealed that Google paid Apple $1 billion in 2014 to make its search engine No. 1 on Safari. TAC payments, though, are separate, analysts say. Goldman Sachs, in a 2015 research report, estimated that 75% of Google’s mobile search revenue came from iOS users (iPhone and tablet), and half of that was related to Safari. Goldman Sachs estimated that 65% of ad revenue went to Apple, while Google kept 35%. Alphabet stock was up a fraction in midday trading in the stock market today , while Apple stock was down more than 1%.