Tag Archives: technology

Oracle Earnings: Can Rising Cloud Make Up For Legacy Fall?

Analysts expect Oracle ( ORCL ) to show a fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings and sales declines in its Q3 fiscal 2016 report after the close Tuesday. The business software giant rose 2.4% to 38.95 Friday, hitting a 3-month high and rising back above its 200-day moving average. Oracle stock fell 0.6% to 38.70 in the stock market today , holding above the 200-day. Oracle stock remains 14% off a more than one-year high set June 17, and nearly even with its 38.91 close on Dec. 16, right before its fiscal Q2 earnings release showed shrinking earnings and sales. That report sent the stock sliding to a 25-month low of 33.13 on Jan. 20. “The stock is down 1.1% since (fiscal 2016’s second-quarter) earnings, outperforming the S&P 500, down 4.0%, given the general rotation out of growth stocks into more value names like Oracle,” wrote Nomura analyst Frederick Grieb in a research note Thursday. “While metrics for cloud revenue growth have been solid, investors remain concerned by what the potential cost will be to the legacy business, as well as the potential impact to margins during the transition.” Meanwhile, Pacific Crest Securities says more business users expect to increase spending on software-as-a-service (SaaS) from Microsoft ( MSFT ) than any other vendor, followed by spending increases for Oracle, then rivals SAP ( SAP ),  Salesforce.com ( CRM ) and others. Microsoft stock closed up 2% to 53.07 Friday, then advanced 0.2% on Monday. SAP gained 2.3% to 78.65 on Friday, tacking on 0.1% on Monday. Salesforce rose 1.3% to 71.63 on Friday, then climbed 0.8% on Monday, finding resistance at the 200-day line. Analysts expect Oracle’s legacy-software license sales to continue falling faster than increasing cloud-subscription sales will rise, at least in the short term. Those polled by Thomson Reuters now model total Q3 revenue down 2% from a year earlier to $9.13 billion, revised down from $9.28 billion, estimated when Q2 earnings were released. They see adjusted EPS of 62 cents, down 9% from a year earlier and down from the 65 cents they estimated three months ago for Q3. In a conference call with analysts after the Q2 release, CEO Safra Catz guided Q3 revenue to a $9.08 billion midpoint and earnings to a range of 60 to 63 cents per share minus items. Anticipating more acceleration of cloud revenue in the second half of the fiscal year for Oracle, Nomura’s Grieb said: “It will be important to make sure that the company is not losing share to the competition. Strong cloud growth rates supported the business until the steep license revenue declines in the last few quarters suggested that the company may not be successfully converting on-premise customers to the cloud. “Investors are concerned that Oracle is not only cannibalizing the on-premise license business, but also offering aggressive incentives to sign cloud customers.” Nomura maintains a buy rating with a 44 price target on Oracle. Aggressive discounting of subscription sales might be why Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brendan Barnicle found feedback from Oracle customers better than expected. “Even though cloud is lagging with existing customers, it is doing better with new customers and cloud revenue recognition on existing deals is likely to drive upside to cloud expectations,” Barnicle wrote in a research note Thursday. “Among SaaS vendors, Oracle showed well in the recent Pacific Crest CFO survey.” He added that feedback about on-premises “applications was surprisingly positive,” particularly in the installed base. “We had little feedback on the database and infrastructure businesses. As a result, we see upside to the Cloud SaaS and PaaS  (platform-as-a-service) revenue expectation of $554 million and overall revenue expectation of $9.127 billion,” Barnicle wrote. “We are less confident on EPS upside. EPS consensus of 62 cents seems a bit high, so we expect in-line EPS.” Pacific Crest carries Oracle with a sector weight rating, akin to a hold rating. In his recent survey of CFOs, Barnicle said that 46% plan to increase SaaS spending in 2016 with Microsoft, followed by 26% with Oracle, 25% with SAP, 16% with Salesforce.com, and about 12% each with HubSpot ( HUBS ) and Paylocity ( PCTY ). Image provided by Shutterstock .

Apple’s Virtual Reality Absence Would Be Like ‘Missing The iPhone’

Loading the player… Top technology players are gathering at the Game Developers Conference this week to discuss new developments in virtual reality, but one big name is missing from what could be the next big thing: Apple ( AAPL ). Facebook ( FB ), Sony ( SNE ), Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google, Amazon ( AMZN ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) are racing to stake claims in a medium that looks to revolutionize consumer technology. Meanwhile, Apple is planning a March 21 spring product event where it’s expected to launch slightly different versions of existing products. “Apple needs to do something (in VR) at some point, because if they don’t . . . it would be as significant as them missing the iPhone, as hard as it is to believe,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told IBD. “But that’s how big of a deal VR is going to be.” Billions of dollars of investments in hardware, software and content provide evidence that virtual reality isn’t a far-off dream, but the “next computing paradigm,” according to analysts. Yet for now, Apple is selling more of the same and remains dependent on the iPhone, as its smartwatch, tablet and set-top box have failed to be catalysts for major, sustained growth. Apple Prefers Waiting Apple typically takes it slow when it comes to entering new markets. Munster says the tech company learns from and improves on what other companies have produced but haven’t “figured out,” such as the music player, the phone and wearables. He thinks Apple is actually doing the right thing by letting the basics of the VR market get figured out first, and expects that the company will offer a consumer-level headset in about two years. He also sees more third parties creating headsets that utilize the iPhone, much like Samsung Gear VR, for lower-quality applications as soon as this year. But there’s a potential disadvantage for Apple in letting others be the first movers in the virtual reality market. “If one of the other competitors gets it right (has explosive growth), right out of the gate, then it’s playing catch-up and that’s a difficult position to be in,” Munster said. And not only is Apple absent from VR headsets, its high-end desktop computer can’t handle other companies’ 360-degree viewing gear, according to Palmer Luckey, founder of Facebook-owned Oculus. The Oculus Rift headset would have Mac OS support “if they ever release a good computer,” he told Shacknews . To be sure, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company has made investments in the augmented reality space over the past few years, with the acquisitions of Metaio and Flyby Media, and has hired VR talent. But Apple’s efforts to enter a new market seem focused more on developing a car, rather than something that’s in a more similar product category as its other gadgets. Facebook Leaves Opening Apple still has a window of opportunity as its rivals’ VR products require steep up-front costs from consumers. Oculus will begin shipments of the $599 Rift headset on March 28. The HTC Vive will launch in early April at $799. But consumers will also need to have gamer-level PCs, which can cost more than $1,000. That barrier to entry that may leave some breathing room for a late move from Apple. Abi Mandelbaum, CEO of interactive VR-content platform YouVisit, says that Oculus’ strategy is stifling VR’s ability to go mainstream to all consumers. “It’s surprising that Facebook would leave such a big segment of the market out from an initial standpoint,” Mandelbaum told IBD. “They’re not only excluding Apple, but most of the PCs that users own, leaving the vast majority out.” He says his company has been working on algorithms that improve lower-end VR viewing. This could further the use of iPhones for VR in the interim, before Apple comes out with its own headset. “You don’t need to have a high-end VR headset to have a premium VR experience, because the software is doing the heavy lifting,” Mandelbaum said. Apple’s Mixed Reality While its rivals rush into VR, Apple could skip it altogether and instead pursue mixed reality (MR). Munster says there’s a camp that believes VR is just the “appetizer” to a bigger opportunity with MR, which goes beyond entertainment applications to be integrated within daily life. Munster says home designs could incorporate virtual flowers and pictures, for example. And a display containing the weather forecast could be grabbed and manipulated. That would be more in Apple’s wheelhouse, as iPhone applications like the calendar, maps, and photos have become necessities. It could also decide the company’s fate. “Over the next 20 years, the screen as we know it will slowly go away,” Munster said in a Feb. 9 research report. “Given Apple’s business in screens (iPhones, iPads and Macs), Apple needs to have leadership in MR to stay relevant long term.”