Tag Archives: stocks

Altria’s Perverse Regulation

Altria and investing in regulated industries. How tobacco regulation protects big tobacco. CrossFit vs. Washington DC. Rangeley Capital’s portfolio managers host a fifteen-minute podcast. If you missed the previous episode, then please check out A 105% Dividend? . We discussed Winthrop Realty (NYSE: FUR ). The end of Winthrop is near, but not before you could get a safe, quick return of your capital with a healthy return. We also talk about the article Sen. Bob Corker Profits on Quick Stock Trades . In this episode we talk about the challenges of investing in companies such as Altria (NYSE: MO ) that compete in highly regulated industries. We also discuss Anti-Licensing Movement Scores a Victory . Crossfit is joining Uber, Airbnb, and the other disruptive entrants that are fighting back against entrenched incumbents and their regulatory henchmen. The podcast is hosted by Andrew Walker and Chris DeMuth Jr, two Rangeley Capital portfolio managers. You can follow us on Twitter (NYSE: TWTR ) ( Andrew and Chris ). You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here or on Soundcloud here .

Portfolio Development – My Approach

Summary Standard portfolio development theory provides a great foundation. Unfortunately, the stock and bond markets don’t always cooperate. Take the approach of accepting what the markets offer to improve total return. Introduction There are literally dozens of articles and books written on the subject of portfolio development theory. Most of those articles and books approach the development of a portfolio using a mix of stocks and bonds with the mix dependent on the investors tolerance for risk and the investor’s age. I think that this “standard” approach to portfolio development is great if you have the luxury of time to build that portfolio over a number of years and business cycles. Without the luxury of time, I don’t believe the “standard” approach works all that well. Making things even more difficult, today we have a unique investment environment. Yes, it really is different this time. We are currently in a period of ultra low interest rates with the most likely course going forward being slowly rising rates. Bonds may not return much over the next few years and if the economy and inflation accelerate, total return could be negative. What is an investor to do? My approach is to accept what the market has to offer. Standard Portfolio Development As stated in the introduction, there is a lot of information available on portfolio development theory. It is not my intent to provide a detailed discussion on the subject of standard portfolio development. I will summarize what I consider to be the standard approach in this section and refer the reader to articles available on the internet if more detail on the standard approach is desired. Most portfolio development starts with identifying the investor’s tolerance for risk. Because the risk of having poor or even negative returns can be mitigated with time invested, an investors risk tolerance also has an age component. Younger investors can generally tolerate more risk because they have many years to invest and accumulate wealth. To see the market behavior over various time periods, you could look at available charts . Another option is to use a market return calculator to look at various time periods. While you might be able to find a 30 year period with a slightly lower return if you work at it, the stock market has returned 8% – 9% average per year for any 30 year period since 1900. The bottom line is that time in the market lowers your risk of having a poor return provided you have a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks. The standard portfolio model also uses diversification between asset classes to mitigate risk. Assets are typically divided primarily between stocks and bonds with a cash account outside the portfolio sufficient to cover 3 – 6 months of living expenses or for other emergencies. The rationale behind splitting the main portfolio between stocks and bonds is that the two asset classes typically complement each other. If equities have a terrible year, the investor should still receive a positive return from their bond holdings. One long standing rule of thumb for the split between stocks and bonds is to use 120 minus the investors age as the percentage for equities in the portfolio. As an investor ages, the portfolio percentage dedicated to stocks drops. The table below illustrates the portfolio stock percentage as a function of age. While this is a decent rule of thumb to follow, there is no universally agreed split between stocks and bonds and some recent thinking is that the typical split between stocks and bonds as a function of the age of the investor may need to weight more heavily stocks versus bonds. The reason for this shift to a relatively higher asset allocation to stocks is because we have had a long bull market in bonds and current yields are extraordinarily low. This makes it less likely that bonds will provide adequate returns going forward at least relative to historical returns. Stocks and bonds should also be diversified within the respective asset class. Depending on the value of the portfolio, it may not be practical for an individual investor to achieve the level of diversification necessary to adequately mitigate risk. Diversification in stocks is easier to achieve because stocks can typically be purchased in small increments. This is not the case with individual bonds. As an example, a round lot for a stock investment is 100 shares and the cost penalty for an odd lot (

DHS: Strong Dividend, Intelligent Holdings, Solid Sector Allocations

Summary The dividend yield is a strong 3.41%. The holdings include several established dividend champions which gives the portfolio a more durable feel. The sector allocations look respectably defensive which is a positive when I would consider the market to still be moderately expensive. The Federal Reserve pushing short rates higher could help the financial sector generate more interest income. The WisdomTree Equity Income ETF (NYSEARCA: DHS ) hits very well on 3 of 4 categories. The only weakness in this fund is the expense ratio. The dividend yield, holdings, and sector allocations create a very compelling trio of factors in favor of the ETF. Expenses The expense ratio is a .38%, which is fairly standard for several of the WisdomTree (NASDAQ: WETF ) funds I’ve looked into. Dividend Yield The dividend yield is currently running 3.41%. This is simply excellent, no complaints there. Holdings I grabbed the following chart to demonstrate the weight of the top 18 holdings: (click to enlarge) General Electric (NYSE: GE ) has had a disappointing several years as their strong dividend has not been matched with solid share price growth. However the company has been very active in looking for solutions and even took measures as extreme as turning one of their departments into Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF ). To be fair, it is unclear to me why the finance division that turned into Synchrony Financial was supposed to fit with the rest of the company at GE. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) and Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX ) both get heavy allocations and have huge dividends. Oil is extremely “out of favor” right now, but I expect an eventual comeback. If it never comes, at least the oil for my truck will be fairly cheap. Two of the highest holdings go to the telecommunications sector with AT&T (NYSE: T ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ ). I’ve found those allocations to be fairly risky given the aggressive competition in the telecommunications industry, but there are some positive aspects to doing a heavy allocation here as it aligns part of the risk with the investor’s expenses. If T and VZ are having a hard time covering their dividend, it would indicate that the profits within the telecommunications industry had dried up and would suggest that the investor is probably saving a chunk of money on their cell phone bill each month. McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD ) is another holding that I think should be represented in most dividend growth portfolios in one way or another. While their burgers have left a great deal to be desired over the last few years, they have still been able to remain relevant because they collected a large amount of high quality real estate. Over the last earnings report things began to look materially better for this real estate giant disguised as a seller of cheap burgers. Phillip Morris (NYSE: PM ), Altria Group (NYSE: MO ), and Coke (NYSE: KO ) all sell products that kill people, but they continue to deliver sales and earnings and the earnings are used to pay some fairly attractive dividends. I know some investors might think I’m crazy for tossing Coke in there with the tobacco companies, but high fructose corn syrup has quite a few very damaging health effects and heart failure is a major source of death in the United States. You won’t see me protesting the stable dividend though. Sectors Financials get a heavy weight which might be a good thing with the Federal Reserve working so hard to raise rates and justify paying interest on excess reserves when the rest of the world is shifting towards further rounds of quantitative easing or NIRP (negative interest rate policy). We have learned over the last few years that negative nominal returns and negative real returns are very possible because simply holding onto cash creates other problems. It turns out that protecting cash is not free and that banks can be pushed to accept negative interest rate policies. That’s interesting and it suggests there will be quite a few books on macroeconomics that need to have chapters replaced. The heavy allocations to consumer staples and energy look good in my opinion since I like the defensive nature of the consumer staples sector and appreciate the energy exposure as demonstrated in my comments on XOM and CVX. The three defensive sectors are consumer staples, utilities, and health care. Those three are all present in the top 6 allocations, so this looks like a respectably defensive fund. Since P/E ratios are fairly across most of the market, I prefer a defensive portfolio to an aggressive portfolio. Conclusion Great dividend, mediocre expense ratio, great holdings, and great sector weightings make a fairly attractive portfolio. If the expense ratio were lower it would get some very serious consideration from me. This fund simply performs great on several metrics.