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Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 12/11/15

Major averages rose yesterday on lower volume. The number of distribution days combined with lackluster performance on the part of leading stocks implies further downside. But given the slower time of year combined with seasonal strength as well as shallow floors which have been the character of the markets since 2013, the market could remain stuck in this trading range. Still, a repeat of last December could occur where the majors drop 5% from peak to trough in a hurry, taking down leading stocks. That said, the majors are off about 3-4% from their highs so their decline may be limited. Nevertheless, despite the slower time of year, continue to keep a close eye on any long positions. The Fed’s action this December 16 may contribute to elevated levels of volatility since their decision is historically significant and would be the first rate hike in nine years. CME FedWatch futures show 83% as the probability of a rate hike. Futures are down about 1% this morning as crude oil makes lower lows and European markets are weak overnight. The S&P 500 has now closed below its 50-day moving average twice this week, while the NASDAQ Composite found support near its own 50-day line on Wednesday. The indexes remain in a tenuous position, which is all the more reason to exercise caution. As Gil Morales pointed out in yesterday’s live market webinar, the broader indexes, such as the New York Composite and the Russell 2000, are showing negative divergences as they did back in July before the market came apart in August. While a so-called Santa Claus rally might emerge before year-end, it may be muted and the market’s breadth issues may have a more pronounced effect come the New Year.

4 Country ETFs To Shun If Oil Hits $20

Now that OPEC has announced that it will continue to pump out more oil despite piling-up supplies and falling demand, traders have set a new bottom for the long-exhausted commodity oil of $20 which is way below the psychologically resistant level of $40. OPEC terminated the production limit after the December 4 meeting. Though the investing was expecting in the same line as the OPEC top brass Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are more concerned about market share, per CNBC , rather than falling oil prices. Goldman Sachs viewed the outcome of this meeting as a serious threat to future oil prices and commented that this ‘leaves risks to their forecast as skewed to the downside in coming months, with cash costs near $20/bbl ‘. However, all are not as bearish as Goldman since HSBC expect non-OPEC supply growth to decrease from 2.3 mbd in 2014 to 0.9 mbd in 2015, before turning negative in 2016. HSBC also projects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2016, $70/bbl in 2017 and $80/bbl in 2018. While nobody knows where the bottom is, one thing for sure is that oil is due for a wilder or a rather sluggish run in the coming days. At the time of writing, oil prices are hovering around the $40 level and are giving no signs of a near-term recovery. While a WTI crude oil ETF like United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: USO ) lost over 9.8% in the last five trading sessions, there are other corners as well which are linked to the commodity oil and are equally at risk if black gold slips to $20 or remains stressed. Those corners are key oil producing and exporting countries which have been exhibiting a downtrend, as revenues earned from this commodity account for a major share of their GDP. We have seen this trend in a number of countries so far this year. Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ) The Russian economy contracted 4.1% year over year in Q3. The economy shrunk for the third successive quarter with stubbornly low oil prices being mainly responsible. Among the other reasons for the deterioration are the ban on Russia by the West on the Ukraine issue and sky-high inflation. Oil – seemingly the main commodity of the nation – posed huge risks to the nation. The plunge in oil prices forced investors to think twice before investing in Russia even at bargain prices. In fact subdued oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar on the Fed lift-off bet put pressure on the Russian currency ruble which lost about 17.2% in the last one year against the greenback (as of December 4, 2015). RSX is the most popular and liquid option in the space with an asset base of $1.83 billion and average trading volume of more than 8 million shares a day. The energy sector accounts for about 43% of RSX, which charges 61 basis points as expenses. The Zacks ETF #4 (Sell) fund advanced 5.9% but lost 6.5% in the last five trading sessions (as of December 7, 2015). Global X FTSE Norway 30 ETF (NYSEARCA: NORW ) Norway is among the top 10 nations famous for oil exports and with its comparatively low population, oil forms the key part of the country’s GDP. As per U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Norway is the biggest oil driller in Europe. The most popular way to play the country is with Global X ETF NORW. The product tracks the FTSE Norway 30 Index, a benchmark of 30 companies that focus on Norway, charging investors 50 basis points a year in fees. The ETF is heavily concentrated on energy stocks, as these make up for nearly 45% of the portfolio. In fact, Norwegian oil giant Statoil accounts for one-fifth of the portfolio alone, suggesting a heavy concentration. Thanks to a slump in oil prices, NORW has lost about 11.3% in the year-to-date frame and was down 2.9% in the last five trading sessions. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSEARCA: EWC ) Canada is also among the world’s top 10 oil producers. The oil, gas and mining sector make up about over a quarter of the Canada’s economy. Its currency plummeted to an 11-year low level after the disappointing outcome of the OPEC meeting. Canadian currency lost about 15% year over year while jobless data spiked last month. The best way to invest in Canada is the iShares MSCI Canada ETF, a product that has nearly $1.89 billion in assets. The fund tracks the MSCI Canada Index, which holds just under 100 stocks in its basket. Energy makes up a huge chunk of assets accounting for one-fifth of the total. The fund was off about 19% in the last one year. The fund has lost 22.7% this year and has a Zacks ETF Rank #4. The fund lost over 4.4% in the last five trading sessions. Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NGE ) Nigeria – an OPEC member – is one of the biggest net crude exporters in the world. An option to invest in Nigeria is a Global X ETF, NGE. This new product follows the Solactive Nigeria Index, giving exposure to about 25 companies and charging investors 68 basis points a year in fees. Though financials actually take the top spot in the ETF, making up about 45% of the holdings, energy has about 10% exposure. That is why, it is important to see how the fund fared during the recent oil price downturn. NGE shed about 31.1% during the last one year and is down 30.8% so far this year. NGE retreated 1.4% in the last five trading sessions. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #4. Original Post

Are You Ready To Invest Like Rothschild?

For many getting started, understanding how to invest can be a challenge. Knowing what to invest and where can seem daunting. For the very wealthy it is business as usual, and they have devised strategies and tactics to make sure their wealth can really work for them, but it is harder for smaller or new investors. According to Richard Dyson (2012), reporting for This Is Money , the very wealthy have focused on creating portfolios and organisations where generally they own a large share. However, in most cases, small investors were not aware that they could invest in these. However, in recent years, changes to regulations have been made such that these sorts of investments are more suitable for smaller investors as well. According to Dyson, one such company to invest in is RIT Capital Partners (“RIT”) ( OTCPK:RITPF ), in which the Rothschilds, an extremely rich family, has a large share. As explained: “Lord Rothschild and his family own 18% of what began in the early 1960s under the name of Rothschild Investment Trust.” It is cited that growth has been achieved to the position where RIT is now worth £1.8 billion, and the Rothschilds own £324 million of that. This has been extremely attractive as a proposition for investment to other private investors, especially as the investment has a superb record over a long history. The assets included are property and hedge funds, among others. History of Wealth The Rothschilds have been growing their wealth for a time span of more than 200 years, and they are considered one of the richest families of all time. Investor Network explains that the family originally made money from the Napoleonic Wars by supporting the side of the English in battling Napoleon. Rothschild was aware that the battle was lost for Napoleon, and he knew this ahead of other investors. This enabled him to purchase much of the stock market at a very favourable price, and when the news came out about Napoleon’s defeat, the market grew tremendously. In addition, the money lent was repaid, and overall, the family did really well out of the war. They continued to do well, and by 1825 they were in such a strong position that they were able to prop up the Bank of England when there was a financial crisis faced. Following this, the family invested in stocks and made shrewd investments and financial decisions that have led to the wealth accrued today. RIT Capital Partners is a good opportunity because small investors have gained significantly over the time it has been up and running. It is reported that the trust has delivered returns, on average, of 12.4 per cent per year. The approach taken is to make sure that investors’ capital is safeguarded as far as possible in the event of stock market crashes. This is beneficial in terms of risk, as there is lower exposure, but it is detrimental when the stock markets rise rapidly, and the investment will be likely to not perform as well as other opportunities in the markets at those times. Investing in RIT will help you invest like the Rothschilds. The cost of the fund is 1.25% per year. Experts say that it is a particularly good investment for pensions. Alternatively, you can learn from the way they operate. The family uses a multi-asset approach, which spreads the wealth across a range of different investments. This includes anything from gold, to shares in a range of high performing companies like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY ), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS ) and Samsung ( OTC:SSNLF ). It has also invested in gold, and it has funds that are focused on commodities, including BlackRock Gold and General and Baker Steel Precious Metals. In taking the approach that it does, it holds onto liquidity appropriately, and focuses on long-term benefits rather than short-term gains. Golden Rules of Contrarian Investing The approach taken by the Rothschilds is known as contrarian investing. Basically, those who follow this approach buy when there is bad news and sell when there is good news. It is thought that this is wise, because when there is good news on the stock market, investors are likely to pay a high price for it. On the other hand, when there is bad news, investors are more likely to get a good deal, as others are in fear of buying at those times. There are 5 golden rules of contrarian investing : When you read about it in the newspapers or see it on the news, it is already all over. Buy when everyone wants to sell, and sell when everyone wants to buy. No one sees a bubble when their income depends on it. Don’t take tips or advice, and don’t believe research notes. What is obvious to you is not obvious to others. Rationality and Risk Although it seems like extremely risky investment strategy, it is based on the principle of “rationality” . It might seem a bit contradictory, but it has a sense, as rationality is based on healthy evaluation of any financial decisions apart from current trends or experts’ advice. The latter, in turn, might be over-reliable, or under/overpriced. Not Contrarian Investment Strategy Contrarian Investment Strategy While efficient market hypotheses are based on stock prices reflecting the financial situation of industry, company or economy in question, the contrarians believe that the market can be beaten by keeping a rational investing viewpoint. They do it by being independent thinkers and controlling their optimistic and pessimistic feelings. To become a contrarian investor, you’ll need to go against the market trends, against the crowd and against social pressures. You’ll need to go for an optimism visible to yourself only. Uncertainty is a right time for investment for a contrarian investor, who will need to have a lot of patience as well as time for such a risky long-term strategy. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.