Tag Archives: stocks

Couch Potato Portfolio Returns For 2015

With 2015 now in the books, it’s time to look back on the year that was. It was another year of surprises: after the gurus continued to predict higher interest rates, the Bank of Canada shocked almost everyone by lowering the overnight rate twice in 2015: first in January , and then again in July . That spelled another year for higher than expected bond returns. And while it was a disappointing year for equities in almost all regions, the plummeting Canadian dollar caused the value of foreign equities to soar. All in all, a diversified portfolio did quite well in the ” year when nothing worked .” Yet another reminder of why it is so important to hold all of the major asset classes all the time and ignore the noise. Let’s look at the details. The building blocks Here are the returns of the individual TD e-Series funds and Vanguard ETFs that are the building blocks for Options 2 and 3 of my model portfolios : Now let’s put these blocks together and see how the model portfolios performed. At the beginning of 2015 , I expanded the TD e-Series and ETF models to include five different asset mixes, ranging from Conservative (30% stocks, 70% bonds) to Aggressive (90% stocks). Here are the returns for each version: TD e-Series funds Conservative Cautious Balanced Assertive Aggressive 30% equities 45% equities 60% equities 75% equities 90% equities 5.26% 6.36% 7.45% 8.55% 9.65% Vanguard ETFs Conservative Cautious Balanced Assertive Aggressive 30% equities 45% equities 60% equities 75% equities 90% equities 4.97% 5.72% 6.46% 7.21% 7.95% Why the differences? The first question that leaps out from these numbers is why the TD e-Series portfolios outperformed the ETFs across the board. After all, the e-Series funds carry management fees that are roughly 0.30% higher. There are two main reasons: Different Canadian equity indexes. Vanguard’s VCN and its TD e-Series counterpart both track the broad Canadian market, hold roughly the same number of stocks, and use a traditional cap-weighted strategy. However, their index benchmarks are different: Vanguard’s ETF tracks the FTSE Canada All Cap Index , while the e-Series fund tracks the S&P/TSX Capped Composite . The indexes have slightly different rules governing which companies are included and the weight assigned to each. As a result, from year to year, their relative performance will vary slightly and randomly. This year, the S&P index won out. Over the long term, these differences have tended to even out . The ETF portfolios include emerging markets. The ETF portfolios get their foreign equity exposure from Vanguard’s VXC , which holds roughly 10% in emerging markets. This asset class was essentially flat in 2015: returns were a little above or below 0%, depending which index you tracked. The TD International Index Fund includes only developed markets, which performed much better on the year. Again, this is simply a random result that worked in favour of the TD funds this year. Over the long term, adding emerging markets to a diversified portfolio should be expected to boost its expected return, though it may also increase volatility. Later this week, I’ll take a closer look at the 2015 performance of the Tangerine Investment Funds , the simplest of my model portfolio options.

The Bear Market Playbook

As many markets enter bear market territory around the globe, investors are inevitably getting skittish. Bear markets are a regular part of the financial markets, but that doesn’t make them easy to handle. Here are some keys to handling a bear market: 1. Don’t lose your perspective. In the last 45 years, a globally allocated 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has never had a negative rolling 5-year return. Of course, it’s not easy to maintain a 5-year time horizon, but if you have less than a 5-year time horizon, you probably shouldn’t be owning stocks and bonds in the first place. Resisting recency bias is the greatest struggle for most investors. And unfortunately, most people never overcome it…. I’ve witnessed this for decades with clients. The financial markets are a revolving door of investor after investor dying one funeral at a time, thanks to excessive short-termism. You don’t have to be irrationally long term, but focusing on the short term is just as irrational. Of course, if you don’t have a proper allocation in the first place, then you need to ensure that your risk profile is aligned with your asset allocation . 2. Turn off the news. Most of the financial media isn’t there to help you. They’re there to get your attention so they can earn a profit selling ad placements. Unfortunately, there is no emotion more powerful than fear. This is why financial TV ratings surge during bear markets. You tune in, get scared out of your wits, churn up a bunch of taxes and fees in your account, sell into panics, rinse wash repeat. I turned off financial TV almost a decade ago. It was one of the best financial decisions I ever made. 3. Stop looking at your account. Fidelity once found that investors who don’t log in to their accounts perform better than investors who log in regularly. The best thing most investors could do is lose their password to their account about once every five years. Logging in and incessantly focusing on your portfolio is just about the best way to ensure that you become a victim of recency bias. If you have a reasonable plan in place, you just need to let time do the heavy lifting for you. 4. Focus on something else. Get your mind off the short-term swings in the market. There is nothing you can do to control the markets. Excessive activity is the illusion of control during the course of creating inefficient portfolio frictions. Get your mind off your portfolio by focusing on hobbies or work. Sitting around worrying about your portfolio isn’t going to help you or your portfolio.

Complete List Of 101 ETP Closures In 2015

A total of 101 U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) and exchange-traded notes (“ETNs”) had their listings removed in 2015, one shy of the record 102 closures in 2012. Of the 2,405 U.S. exchange-traded products (“ETPs”) launched since 1993, when the industry began, only 1,845 remain, making the lifetime death toll 560 (475 ETFs and 85 ETNs). This puts the historical mortality rate at 23.3%, up from 21.6% a year ago. It’s getting tougher to survive out there. Click to enlarge A significant, but uncelebrated, milestone was achieved in 2015: the lifetime death toll reached 500 . Broken down by major categories, the 101 closures of 2015 consisted of 11 sector, 14 style and strategy, 21 global and international, 12 bond, 10 inverse, 17 leveraged and inverse, 12 commodity, and four currency products. Slicing another direction reveals 79 of the closures were ETFs and 22 were ETNs. Nine of the shuttered ETFs were actively managed funds. Percentage-wise, ETN closures were more significant. During 2015, there were only a dozen launches, and ETNs declined from 211 to 201. This is the largest-ever annual decline of ETNs, and the number of active listings remains well below the peak of 218 established in mid-2012. Closures affected 20 brands and sponsors. Three firms completely exited the business by closing their entire product lines. The Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS ) closed all 13 of its ETNs, Russell closed its one remaining ETF after shutting down the other 25 back in 2012 , and Source closed its one and only U.S.-listed ETF. As an ETF sponsor, Source lasted less than seven months in the U.S. market and now holds the record for the shortest sponsor lifespan. Sponsors and brands with the highest closure quantities for the year included BlackRock iShares (19), ProShares (19), RBS ETNs (13), Deutsche X-trackers (7), Invesco PowerShares (6), and AdvisorShares (6). Assets in these closed products averaged $25.4 million, for a total of $2.57 billion. However, a large portion can be attributed to the three target-maturity ETFs with their planned maturity and liquidation dates. These were the Guggenheim BulletShares 2015 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: BSJF ) at $469 million, the Guggenheim BulletShares 2015 Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: BSCF ) at $363 million, and the iShares iBonds Sep 2015 AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IBMD ) at $89 million. Strategic closures also had an impact on the numbers. The decision by RBS to exit the business left $827 million on the table, including $488 million in the RBS U.S. Large Cap Trendpilot ETN (NYSEARCA: TRND ) and $144 million in the RBS US Mid Cap Trendpilot ETN (NYSEARCA: TRNM ). Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB ) bet the farm on currency hedging and closed most of its non-hedged products, including two with assets of more than $40 million each. The Invesco-DB partnership appeared to come to an end when all of the PowerShares ETNs issued by DB were closed and liquidated. With the exception of out-of-the-blue strategic closure decisions, ETF Deathwatch continues to do a good job of identifying the zombie ETFs and warning investors of potential fund closures. Of the 101 liquidated products, 79 were on ETF Deathwatch when their terminations were announced. Excluding the strategic decisions mentioned above, just nine of the closures were not on ETF Deathwatch. Many of those had assets above $25 million, which suggests the current criteria may not be strict enough. Ages of the liquidated products ranged from less than seven months for the Source EUROSTOX 50 ETF (NYSEARCA: ESTX ) to 7.9 years for a dozen of the ProShares ETFs. In all, 21 of the products were more than seven years old, suggesting that sponsors had been willing to subsidize these funds for many years before giving up hope of them ever becoming profitable. Given the increasingly competitive landscape, it’s not clear sponsors will exhibit such patience going forward. The interactive table below is currently sorted by product name. ETF and ETN Closures of 2015 # Ticker Name Last Day Deathwatch Notes 1 AGLS AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short ETF 08/07/2015 Yes 1 2 ACCU AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF 01/09/2015 1 3 HDGI AdvisorShares Athena International Bear ETF 01/09/2015 Yes 1 4 GGBP AdvisorShares Gartman Gold/British Pound ETF 01/26/2015 Yes 1 5 GLDE AdvisorShares International Gold ETF 01/26/2015 Yes 1 6 DBIZ AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF 10/02/2015 Yes 1 7 CSMB CS X-Links 2x Monthly Merger Arbitrage Liquid Index ETN 07/02/2015 Yes 8 CSMN CS X-Links HOLT Market Neutral Global Equity ETN 07/02/2015 Yes 9 TDD Deutsche X-trackers 2010 Target Date ETF 05/18/2015 Yes 10 TDH Deutsche X-trackers 2020 Target Date ETF 05/18/2015 11 TDN Deutsche X-trackers 2030 Target Date ETF 05/18/2015 12 TDV Deutsche X-trackers 2040 Target Date ETF 05/18/2015 13 TDX Deutsche X-trackers In-Target Date 05/18/2015 Yes 14 UTLT Deutsche X-trackers Regulated Utilities 09/09/2015 Yes 15 SUBD Deutsche X-trackers Solactive Investment Grade Subordinated Debt 09/09/2015 Yes 16 SYTL Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 2x 10/20/2015 Yes 17 MATL Direxion Daily Basic Materials Bull 3x 10/20/2015 Yes 18 BAR Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3x 06/19/2015 Yes 19 MDLL Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 2x 10/20/2015 Yes 20 BCHP EGShares Blue Chip 10/30/2015 Yes 21 BRXX EGShares Brazil Infrastructure 10/30/2015 Yes 22 AGOL ETFS Physical Asian Gold Shares 08/12/2015 23 BRAF Global X Brazil Financials 10/08/2015 Yes 24 AZIA Global X Central Asia & Mongolia Index 10/08/2015 Yes 25 GURX Global X Guru Small Cap Index 10/08/2015 Yes 26 JUNR Global X Junior Miners 10/08/2015 Yes 27 BSCF Guggenheim BulletShares 2015 Corp Bond 12/30/2015 2 28 BSJF Guggenheim BulletShares 2015 HY Corp Bond 12/30/2015 2 29 HFIN Horizons S&P Financial Sel Sec Covered Call 03/20/2015 Yes 30 IFAS iShares Asia Developed Real Estate 08/21/2015 Yes 31 MONY iShares Financials Bond 08/21/2015 Yes 32 FCHI iShares FTSE China 08/21/2015 33 IBMD iShares iBonds Sep 2015 AMT-Free Muni Bond 09/01/2015 2 34 ENGN iShares Industrials Bond 08/21/2015 Yes 35 AAIT iShares MSCI All Country Asia Info Tech 08/21/2015 Yes 36 AXJS iShares MSCI All Country Asia x-Japan SmallCap 08/21/2015 Yes 37 EWAS iShares MSCI Australia Small-Cap 08/21/2015 Yes 38 EWCS iShares MSCI Canada Small-Cap 08/21/2015 Yes 39 EMDI iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Cons Discretionary 08/21/2015 Yes 40 ESR iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Eastern Europe 08/21/2015 41 EEME iShares MSCI Emerging Markets EMEA 08/21/2015 Yes 42 EMEY iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Energy Sector 08/21/2015 Yes 43 EGRW iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Growth 08/21/2015 Yes 44 EVAL iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Value 08/21/2015 45 EWHS iShares MSCI Hong Kong Small-Cap 08/21/2015 46 EWSS iShares MSCI Singapore Small-Cap 08/21/2015 Yes 47 IFNA iShares North America Real Estate 08/21/2015 48 AMPS iShares Utilities Bond 08/21/2015 49 QEM Market Vectors MSCI Emerging Markets Quality 09/18/2015 Yes 50 QDEM Market Vectors MSCI Emerging Markets Quality Dividend 09/18/2015 Yes 51 QXUS Market Vectors MSCI International Quality 09/18/2015 Yes 52 QDXU Market Vectors MSCI International Quality Dividend 09/18/2015 Yes 53 BARL Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Crude Oil ETN 01/29/2015 Yes 54 FIVZ PIMCO 3-7 Year U.S. Treasury Index 09/23/2015 Yes 55 TENZ PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index 09/23/2015 56 FORX PIMCO Foreign Currency Strategy Active 09/23/2015 Yes 1 57 ITLT PowerShares DB 3x Italian T-Bond Futures ETN 02/24/2015 58 UUPT PowerShares DB 3x Long USD Idx Futures ETN 02/24/2015 59 UDNT PowerShares DB 3x Short USD Idx Futures ETN 02/24/2015 Yes 60 ITLY PowerShares DB Italian T-Bond Futures ETN 02/24/2015 Yes 61 DEFL PowerShares DB US Deflation ETN 02/24/2015 Yes 62 INFL PowerShares DB US Inflation ETN 02/24/2015 Yes 63 FINF ProShares Short 30 Year TIPS/TSY Spread 01/08/2015 Yes 64 GDAY ProShares Ultra Australian Dollar 06/18/2015 Yes 65 UKW ProShares Ultra Russell Midcap Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 66 UVU ProShares Ultra Russell Midcap Value 01/08/2015 Yes 67 UKF ProShares Ultra Russell1000 Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 68 UVG ProShares Ultra Russell1000 Value 01/08/2015 Yes 69 UKK ProShares Ultra Russell2000 Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 70 UVT ProShares Ultra Russell2000 Value 01/08/2015 Yes 71 UWC ProShares Ultra Russell3000 01/08/2015 Yes 72 UINF ProShares UltraPro 10 Year TIPS/TSY Spread 01/08/2015 Yes 73 SINF ProShares UltraPro Short 10yr TIPS/TSY Sprd 01/08/2015 Yes 74 SDK ProShares UltraShort Russell Midcap Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 75 SJL ProShares UltraShort Russell Midcap Value 01/08/2015 Yes 76 SFK ProShares UltraShort Russell1000 Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 77 SJF ProShares UltraShort Russell1000 Value 01/08/2015 Yes 78 SKK ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 Growth 01/08/2015 Yes 79 SJH ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 Value 01/08/2015 Yes 80 TWQ ProShares UltraShort Russell3000 01/08/2015 Yes 81 TLL ProShares UltraShort Telecommunications 09/14/2015 Yes 82 TCHI RBS China Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 83 DRGS RBS Global Big Pharma ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 84 TBAR RBS Gold Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 85 TNDQ RBS NASDAQ 100 Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 86 TWTI RBS Oil Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 87 RGRA RBS Rogers Enhanced Agriculture ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 88 RGRC RBS Rogers Enhanced Commodity Index ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 89 RGRE RBS Rogers Enhanced Energy ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 90 RGRI RBS Rogers Enhanced Industrial Metals ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 91 RGRP RBS Rogers Enhanced Precious Metals ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 92 ALTL RBS US Large Cap Alternator ETN 07/06/2015 Yes 93 TRND RBS US Large Cap Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 94 TRNM RBS US Mid Cap Trendpilot ETN 07/06/2015 95 ONEF Russell Equity 01/26/2015 Yes 1 96 ESTX Source EURO STOXX 50 04/10/2015 97 VRD SPDR Nuveen S&P VRDO Municipal Bond 03/18/2015 Yes 98 KME SPDR S&P Mortgage Finance 03/18/2015 Yes 99 GMFS SPDR S&P Small Cap Emerging Asia Pacific 03/18/2015 Yes 100 USMI United States Metals 03/18/2015 Yes 101 EU WisdomTree Euro Debt 02/11/2015 Yes 1 Showing 1 to 101 of 101 entries Notes : 1) actively managed, 2) reached planned maturity. All exchange traded notes are identified with “ETN” as part of their name description.