Tag Archives: stocks

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 3/1/16

The major averages fell yesterday on mixed volume as the S&P 500 closed back below its 50-day moving average. The NASDAQ Composite closed below its 10-week moving average which is serving as resistance. Futures are higher as the bounce in oil and Chinese stocks continues. This morning’s futures jack comes as a weak Chinese PMI number overnight fed hopes of more stimulus to come from Chinese central bankers. However, we would tend to view such rallies as potential short-sale opportunities, depending on where our current short-sale target stocks, AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, FB, and MCD are in relation to areas of potential overhead resistance.

Looking For Value From Vanguard

My article last week looked at the long-term benefits to holding a diversified portfolio that included a tilt to large cap and small cap value stocks globally. To illustrate the results, I used the structured asset class mutual funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) as my proxies for the value stock categories, unlike the market indexes, where I substituted Vanguard index funds. Why not use Vanguard results across the board? Vanguard has an obvious expense ratio advantage over DFA and just about everyone else, and investors have voted with their wallets – Vanguard has more assets than any other mutual fund company. The issue is, when you look to Vanguard for value, they either don’t measure up or don’t even offer strategies for a given asset class. Take a look at the table below. FUND/Index 3/1993-12/2015 6/1998-12/2015 1/1995-12/2015 DFA US Large Cap Value fund (MUTF: DFLVX ) +9.8% Vanguard S&P 500 fund (MUTF: VFINX ) +9.0% Vanguard Value Index (MUTF: VIVAX ) +8.8% DFA US Small Value fund (MUTF: DFSVX ) +9.1% DFA US Small Cap fund (MUTF: DFSTX ) +8.5% Vanguard Small Value Index (MUTF: VISVX ) +8.1% DFA Int’l Value fund (MUTF: DFIVX ) +6.0% MSCI EAFE Index +4.7% MSCI EAFE Value Index +5.3% DFA Int’l Small Value fund (MUTF: DISVX ) +7.4% MSCI EAFE Small Cap Value Index +7.0% Vanguard manages index funds in the US covering large and small value stocks. But they don’t capture as much of the value “premium” as the asset class funds from DFA do. Since 1993 (DFLVX inception), the DFA US Large Value fund outpaced the Vanguard Value Index (net of a higher expense ratio) by 1% per year. Since 1998 (VISVX inception), the DFA US Small Value fund outpaced the Vanguard Small Value Index (net of a higher expense ratio), again by 1% per year. Surprisingly, the Vanguard value funds even underperformed the S&P 500 and small cap “market” funds, despite the fact that these “neutral” (holding both growth and value) funds obviously have less exposure to value stocks than the Vanguard value indexes. This should dispel any myth that the Vanguard underperformance is due solely to “less exposure to the value factor.” Things get considerably more challenging with Vanguard once we leave the US market. Vanguard doesn’t offer an index fund that buys international large value stocks or small value stocks. You’re stuck with a plain-vanilla market index like the MSCI EAFE. The chart above finds, since 1995 (DISVX inception), the DFA Int’l Value fund bested the EAFE Index (before expenses associated with an actual index fund that buys EAFE stocks) by 1.3% per year. The DFA Int’l Small Value fund did 2.7% per year better. Clearly, there’s a significant cost (return drag) to investing only in international market indexes that doesn’t show up in simplistic expense ratio comparisons. But what if Vanguard did offer large and small value indexes in foreign markets? Would they be worth a look? Here I’ve reproduced the returns on a likely index provider – the MSCI EAFE Value and EAFE Small Value Indexes – for comparison purposes ( source: DFA ReturnsWeb ). These indexes don’t have any fees, and any index fund or ETF that tracks them would likely trail the index return by 0.2% to 0.3% or so. Even still, the apples (net of fee DFA fund return) to oranges (gross of fee index returns) comparison shows a clear advantage to DFA : The DFA Int’l Value fund did +0.7% per year better than the EAFE Value Index while the DFA Int’l Small Value fund did +0.4% per year better than the EAFE Small Value Index. The lack of value stock indexes from Vanguard in non-US markets isn’t just a return issue, either. Large and small foreign value stocks also have lower correlations to US asset classes and have provided an additional diversification benefit. What accounts for these significant net-of-fee differences that are consistent across geographical regions over meaningfully long periods of time? First, as previously mentioned, DFA does hold a deeper subset of the lowest-priced value stocks, about the cheapest 30% compared to the cheapest 50% for Vanguard. And the small cap funds hold almost purely small and micro cap stocks compared to small and mid cap stocks for Vanguard. DFA screens out stocks with low-to-negative profitability and when buying and selling, they do so patiently throughout the year, hanging on to companies with positive momentum while waiting to buy stocks with the strongest negative momentum. And, finally, DFA is a more active security lender, earning a few more basis points on average from lending out stocks overnight and earning a return (that gets credited back to the fund) for doing so. All of this adds up to much purer asset class exposure with noticeably better long-term returns that is not isolated to just one area of the market. I like Vanguard . T hey’ve done a good job of educating investors on the importance of broad diversification and minimizing fees. But given the option, in the crucial asset classes that belong in a “core” diversified portfolio*, I just don’t see the value in using Vanguard. *I would add that the DFA US Large Cap Equity fund (MUTF: DUSQX ) and DFA Five-Year Global fund (MUTF: DFGBX ), which cover the other two core asset classes not discussed in this article, represent superior options to the Vanguard S&P 500 fund and the Vanguard Short-term Bond Index fund as well, but the reasons are beyond the scope of this article. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Mutual fund performance shown includes reinvestment of dividends and other earnings but does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees or other expenses except where noted. This content is provided for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services. Disclosure: I am/we are long DUSQX, DFLVX, DFSVX, DFIVX, DISVX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Workday Beats For 13th Time In 14 Quarters, But Outlook Short

All in a Leap Year workday’s work, Workday ( WDAY ) late Monday issued its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street views, but its Q1 revenue outlook missed forecasts and shares were down in after-hours trading. The company’s CEO, however, said Workday will expand its total addressable market. And the Q4 ended Jan. 31 marked the 13th time in 14 quarters that Workday beat consensus on earnings and revenue since going public in Oct. 2012, priced at 28. But CFO Mark Peek forecast Q1 revenue of $337 million to $339 million, up 35% at the midpoint but below the $343.3 million modeled by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Workday stock was down 3% in after-hours trading, after the company released its results. Shares  rose 1.7% to 60.46 in Monday’s regular session. Workday stock hit a 39-month low at 47.32 on Feb. 9. The stock climbed over the past two weeks but is still down 24%  this year. Investors in software stocks, battered in recent months, had hoped Workday might encourage upward movement in the sector like Salesforce.com ( CRM ) did last week when its stock jumped 11% after its fiscal Q4 earnings and its outlook beat expectations. The enterprise software sector dived Feb. 5 after Big Data developer Tableau Software ( DATA ) issue a disappointing Q4 and gave soft guidance. Tableau crashed 49.5% that day to 41.33 and still has not recovered. “We ended FY16 on a high note with a very strong fourth quarter across product lines and around the world,” Workday CEO Aneel Bhusri said in the earnings release. “Demand for our financial management and HCM (human capital management) products continues to rise, as do our competitive win rates. The year ahead brings us an expanded addressable market with the delivery of Planning, Learning Management and Student applications that allow customers to drive employee engagement and productivity in new and transformative ways.” Big legacy software developer Oracle ( ORCL ) unwittingly might be helping Workday by somewhat reducing its automatic promotional Software as a Service to customers,  D.A. Davidson analyst Jack Andrews wrote in a research note before Workday’s earnings release. Workday’s  helps companies manage their most important assets: people, in the form of the HCM applications, and money, with financial management software. The company posted a per-share loss minus items of a penny in Q4, better than its 6-cent loss in the year-earlier quarter, on revenue of $323.4 million, up 43%. Workday had guided Q4 to revenue of $317 million to $320 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had modeled $320.3 million when Q3 results were reported in November, but then revised it down to $319.6 million. Analysts had expected an adjusted loss per share of 5 cents.