Tag Archives: stocks

Alder BioPharma Migraine Drug Scores In Trial; Stock Spikes

Small biotech Alder BioPharmaceuticals ( ALDR ) soared more than 50% to a two-month high in early trading Monday after its migraine drug candidate succeeded in a mid-stage trial, positioning it to compete with some giant rivals. Alder said that a single intravenous infusion of its monoclonal antibody, ALD403, had significantly reduced migraine days over a 12-week period compared to a placebo. Depending on the dose, between 44% and 57% of patients experienced a 50% reduction in migraine days, while 27% to 33% experienced a 75% reduction. “Evaluation of ALD403 continues to exhibit a potential best-in-class profile, which includes immediate, significant and durable migraine prevention with infrequent quarterly dosing,” Alder CEO Randall Schatzman said in a statement. “With our commitment to the accelerated development of ALD403 reinforced by today’s positive results, we look forward to advancing our development plan, and assuming FDA approval, independently marketing ALD403 in the U.S. to meet the critical medical needs of the 13 million patients nationwide who are candidates for migraine prevention therapy.” Alder’s decision to market its drug without a big-pharma partner, unusual for a small biotech, could pit it against some very big competitors developing similar drugs. ALD403 is an anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) antibody, similar to migraine candidates being developed by Amgen ( AMGN ), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries ( TEVA ) and Eli Lilly ( LLY ). Alder’s drug is distinguished by its infrequent dosing: Amgen and Teva’s drugs are injected once a month, while Lilly’s is biweekly. It would also be competing against Allergan ‘s ( AGN ) Botox, which is also quarterly but involves 31 separate shots. Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan wrote that ALD403’s results seem roughly equivalent to Teva’s in terms of effectiveness, but he did note that there was no significant improvement over the placebo in the number of patients who experienced a 100% reduction in migraine days. Between 4% and 8% of patients on the drug achieved this, which was rather lower than the 16% who had been headache-free in a previous trial. Alder stock, like so many other biotech stocks, had lost more than half its value since touching its all-time peak of 54.90 in July. But in early trading on the stock market today , shares were was up some 52% near 26. Image provided by Shutterstock .

Market Lab Report – Study and Review of March Pocket Pivots

Below is a spreadsheet of Pocket Pivots for which we’ve issued reports in March 2016: The orange column shows the price of the stock at the time a report was issued for its pocket pivot. The gray column shows the current price as of Friday’s close and the blue column shows the stock’s peak price since its pocket pivot report was issued.The yellow column shows the net percentage gain for each stock from the date of its initial report, and the green column shows the percentage gain as measured from the @ Price column to the Peak Px column.  To some extent the performance of all these pocket pivots illustrates the difficulties of the current market environment. Note that every single pocket pivot produced a gain from the time we issued its initial pocket pivot report to its peak price. However, this does not tell the full story for each. SIMO has been the most consistent performer of the group, followed by ALK. We would consider both to be somewhat extended and in need of some consolidation. Also keep in mind semiconductor stocks tend to have more noise in their patterns so pullbacks are common on their way to higher highs.  FN is showing decent net performance in March, but it first broke down to its 50-day moving average, which might have shaken one out of any position taken along the 10-day line where the initial pocket pivot occurred. Now the stock has broken out to new highs on very strong volume. It would likely be buyable on a pullback towards the breakout point at around 29 and change. SWHC shows a small gain of 1.06% for the month, but in fact had a 12.58% move from its initial pocket pivot. Our advice in this market is to take 10% profits when you have them, so it is likely that had one purchased the stock at the time of the initial pocket pivot one could have easily locked in a reasonable gain, at least for this market environment. With the stock falling all the way back to its initial pocket pivot breakout point, it may be in a lower-risk entry position here. A further clue to sell into strength was on 3/18 when SWHC had a high volume downside reversal off new highs. This type of pattern often precedes a pullback of some magnitude though may only last a day. Nevertheless, in keeping in context with this market environment, a bird in the hand is worth three in the bush.  EBIX had a nice initial move following its pocket pivot, but has since dipped below its initial entry price. However, it is currently undercutting the lows in its current price consolidation which could put it in a lower-risk buy position. Thursday’s price/volume action also qualifies as a pocket pivot.  SMCI is also holding tight along its 20-day moving average and remains in a buyable position. MTSI has pulled back to its prior double-bottom breakout point at 41.32 and is back in a lower-risk buy position. UFPI also remains in a buyable position along its 10-day moving average, although Thursday’s pullback to the 10-day line provided a more reasonable entry right at the line. ORLY pulled into its 10-day line on Thursday on lower volume, which puts it in a lower-risk buyable position. MXL sold off hard on Thursday morning within the first ten minutes of the trading day, but found support at its 50-day moving average before closing back above its 20-day moving average. This might put the stock back in a lower-risk buy position at its 20-day line.  The worst performer of the group is SEDG, which had almost no follow-through after its pocket pivot of 3/2/16 and has since dropped over -13.52%. Of course, one would have used either the 10-day or 50-day moving averages as a selling guide and therefore should have sold the stock well before then. SEDG is now undercutting the prior late February low in a three-month sideways consolidation, which could put it in an “Ugly Duckling” buy position based on the undercut and rally seen on Thursday. But as always, keep stops extra tight on such names should you decide to buy them.  Overall, the performance of recent pocket pivots has not been all that bad, as one has had opportunities to take profits in strong-performers like SWHC while limiting losses in names that have not worked out as well. We would continue to view this as a viable buy watch list with the idea of looking to take an opportunistic view of these names on any pullbacks down to areas of logical support.