Tag Archives: stocks
The ETF Monkey Vanguard Core Portfolio: April 13, 2016 Rebalance
Back on February 11, 2016, I executed a series of transactions to rebalance The ETF Monkey Vanguard Core Portfolio . As explained in that article, the severe decline in both domestic and foreign stocks left these two asset classes significantly underweight, with bonds being overweight. Here, for convenience, is a “before and after” snapshot of that transaction. Click to enlarge As it turns out, the timing of that rebalancing could not have been better. In hindsight, it can be seen that February 11 represented, at least to this point, the low point for 2016. I don’t take particular credit for this. My efforts were simply an application of the principles found in this article . As I also noted in my previous article, I executed a fairly aggressive set of transactions. Mindful of the fact that I am deliberately incurring trading commissions on all transactions in this particular portfolio, to make the exercise as “real world” as possible, I commented that I need to make each transaction count. This being the case, I temporarily underweighted bonds in favor of adding to the other two severely depressed asset classes. Here is the equivalent Excel spreadsheet for today’s transaction. Have a look, and then I will offer some comments. Click to enlarge Likely, the first thing that jumped out at you is that both domestic and foreign stocks have staged fairly stunning comebacks since February 11. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) registered a gain of 14.69% during this period, while the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (NYSEARCA: VEU ) did even better, at 15.55%! On the flip side, this incredible performance, combined with my aggressive rebalancing transaction, left bonds substantially underweight, with their 13.37% weighting being a full 4.13% below my target weight of 17.50%, or a full 23.6% in relative terms (13.37 / 17.50). Given these developments, it appeared to me that this was a fitting point to take some of those profits, so to speak, and get the portfolio more closely aligned with my target weights. While it is not yet May, I will admit that the old adage “Sell in May and go away” contributed in some small way to the timing of this decision. I didn’t want to take a chance on being overweight domestic equities, only to have them experience a summer swoon! You may also notice that foreign stocks were about even with my target allocation as I reviewed the portfolio today. This is because I did not add as heavily to this asset class in the prior rebalance. Therefore, I decided to only affect the domestic stock and bond asset classes with this transaction, saving me one trading commission. Take one last peek at the “after” section of the spreadsheet, and you will notice that all 3 asset classes are now fairly closely aligned with their targets. I hope that this sets the portfolio up nicely for the summer. Disclosure: I am not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. Readers are cautioned that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes, and are encouraged to consult with their financial and/or tax advisor respecting the applicability of this information to their personal circumstances. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
Sluggish Retail Sales? Don’t Tell That To Specialty Retailers
Retail sales might have been sluggish in March, but don’t tell that to the Retail-Specialty industry group which has been working its way higher in IBD’s 197 industry group rankings. The group outperformed again Wednesday, rising about 2%. Headed into the session, it ranked 26th, up from No. 99 three weeks ago and No. 146 six weeks ago. The outright leader in the group is Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ), one of a select group of stocks to achieve IBD Sector Leader status due to outstanding fundamentals, among other things. Over the past eight quarters, year-over-year sales growth has averaged just over 21% — impressive for a company with a market capitalization approaching $13 billion. A strong earnings report fueled a bullish gap for the stock on March 11. The stock traded sideways after that, staying in a buy range from a 188.58 buy point. It’s extended now after gapping up again April 8. It may be too late to buy Ulta, but three other names in the group are near buy points as they set up in bases. Sally Beauty ( SBH ) is in the same business as Ulta. While Ulta has a big presence in malls across the U.S., Sally Beauty locations are more prominent in strip malls. In terms of store locations, Sally operates more than 4,800 stores worldwide, compared with nearly 900 locations for Ulta. Despite more locations, Sally’s market capitalization of $4.6 billion is much smaller than Ulta’s at nearly $13 billion. Its fundamentals story isn’t as compelling, either, with a five-year annualized earnings growth rate of 11% and sales growth rate of 5%. Still, Sally Beauty is working on a long cup-with-handle base with a 33.03 buy point. Arts and crafts retailer Michaels ( MIK ), with a Composite Rating of 91, is working on a long cup-with-handle base with a 28.89 buy point. On the weekly chart, the handle formed during the week ended March 25. Michaels shows four straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth, but single-digit sales growth leaves something to be desired. That said, sales growth accelerated when the company reported fiscal Q4 results in March. Sales rose 5% to $1.68 billion, up from 3% growth in Q3. For the current quarter, sales are expected to accelerate again, rising 8% to $1.17 billion. Last week, industrial auctioneer Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers ( RBA ) said it sold more than $1 billion worth of equipment, trucks and other assets in the first quarter, up 6.8% from the year-ago period. It has climbed to within 9% of a 52-week high as it works on the right side of a long consolidation. Earnings and sales growth declined in the latest reported quarter, but a Composite Rating of 87 is helped by solid annual pretax margin and return on equity in 2015. To its credit, Ritchie Bros. boasts a couple of top-notch fund sponsors: Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund ( POGRX ) and T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund ( PRNHX ).