Tag Archives: seeking

Tilts – Searching For (Relative) Value

By Douglas R Terry, CFA The investing environment remains challenging. Equity valuations are high after a 6-year extraordinary bull market. Bonds have been in a bull market for 35 years, and yields, though off their 2012 lows, remain at historic extremes. After a 7-year, 700% bull in oil from 2001 to 2008, it gave back 90% of gains in 6 months. Oil followed this up with a 5-year bull, and again gave back 90% of gains in 6 months. Sometimes, as investors, it’s necessary to just invest in the best place possible, given a lot of historically poor choices. In these times of poor valuations, we want to stay underinvested, as embedded risk is higher than normal. We want to be nimble and try to avoid getting steam-rolled in markets that can drop 80% or more in less than 6 months. Here are some places I think we can find relative value. Equities: US equities have seen the best regional equity performance performance, but also have the highest valuations. US valuations relative to non-US stocks are at extremely high levels relative to the past 25 years. The US is performing better today than the rest of the world. Perhaps US strength can help the rest of the globe. A tilt toward Global Ex-US stocks has a good relative chance of providing portfolio value. Fixed Income: With rates at historic lows and the Fed contemplating a rise off the zero bound, one would want to be very careful in bonds. If you do venture out the yield curve, consider inflation-protected bonds. Oil has plunged over 60%, and much of the headline inflation weakness is tied to this major commodity. Perhaps, more importantly, much of the embedded future inflation expectations have dropped coincident with oil markets. If this recent soft patch is just a lull, which I believe it is, then interest rates may rise and bond portfolios would not perform well. But if the economy does prove resilient, oil may have found a bottom. Higher oil means higher inflation expectations. Stable oil means headline inflation creeps up toward core inflation. Both scenarios would be relatively good for inflation-protected bonds. In bond portfolios, consider upping the allocation to TIPs versus nominal bonds to use rising inflation expectations as a hedge against the potential of good growth and rising rates.

EOD: This Global Equity Fund Could Bounce Back

Summary 15% Discount to NAV is near 5 Year Highs. High 11% Distribution Rate Combined with Discount Produces Alpha. The fund uses dividend capture and an options overlay to increase distributable income. The Wells Fargo Advantage Global Dividend Opportunity Fund (NYSE: EOD ) is a covered call global equity closed-end fund, created in March 2007, with about $365 Million in assets under management. The primary objective of the fund is to provide a high level of current income, with a secondary objective of long term capital growth. (Data below is sourced from the Wells Fargo Advantage website unless otherwise stated.) The fund is currently selling at a 15% discount to NAV which is near its five year high. Here is a five year history of the premium/discount from cefconnect: (click to enlarge) The Fund invests in global equities with an emphasis on companies with attractive dividend policies and/or those with the potential to grow their dividends over time. The Fund focuses on companies in the utilities, telecom and energy sectors. They also employ dividend capture and an options overlay to increase distributable income. Within the equity covered call CEF sector, I generally prefer funds that use index options over those that use options on individual stocks. Aside from the tax advantage, the options on stock indexes generally trade with a lower bid-asked spread and are more liquid. This means reduced “slippage” costs resulting in less drag on performance. EOD uses both kinds of options. But the options holdings are modest (around 7%) of equity value, so the slippage factor is not a big deal here. As with many covered call funds, the fund uses a high managed distribution plan where they currently are paying out $0.18 per quarter. Five years ago the fund was paying out $0.28 per quarter, but the NAV has fallen because the total return has not kept up with the large distributions. EOD usually “earns its distribution” because of the options overlay and dividend capture strategies, but occasionally will use return of capital if there is a small shortfall. The quarterly distribution was reduced to $0.21 in November, 2012 and was lowered again to $0.18 in November, 2013. The distribution cuts have been successful in preventing major drops in NAV the last three years. This was the top eight country allocation as of July 31, 2015: U.S. 51.3% U.K. 11.4% Italy 8.2% Bermuda 7.4% France 6.8% Canada 5.4% Spain 5.2% Germany 4.2% The top equity sector allocations as of Sep. 30, 2015 are listed below. Note that there was zero exposure to the Basic Materials, Technology, Consumer Defensive or Healthcare sectors. Equity Sector Allocation Utilities 31.8% Real Estate 20.3% Communications 16.1% Financials 11.3% Consumer Cyclical 9.4% Industrials 5.6% Energy 5.5% Source: Morningstar Here is the total return NAV performance record since 2008 along with its percentile rank compared to Morningstar’s World Allocation category.   EOD NAV Performance World Allocation NAV Percentile Rank in Category 2008 -33.55% -39.30% 31% 2009 +13.33% +46.71% 100% 2010 + 3.13% +23.98% 100% 2011 – 4.44% – 3.21% 65% 2012 +9.23% +19.81% 85% 2013 +12.65% +11.07% 85% 2014 + 8.29% + 6.14% 30% YTD – 4.42% + 0.06% 91% Source: Morningstar Here are the top ten holdings for EOD as of Sep. 30, 2015: (click to enlarge) Fund Management Timothy P. O’Brien, CFA: Managing partner at Crow Point Partners LLC. Previously worked with the Value Equity team of Evergreen Investments. Has been in the investment management industry since 1983. Kandarp Acharya, CFA, FRM: Senior portfolio manager at WellsCap. Has a background in quantitative research, development of capital markets expectations, multi-asset class market risk modeling, risk management and hedging and optimization strategies. Christian L. Chan, CFA: Senior portfolio manager at WellsCap. Prior positions include roles as head of investments on several asset allocation funds at Wells Fargo, and quantitative research manager at an institutional investment consultancy. The discount to NAV as of November 6 is -14.83%. The one year discount Z-score is -1.24 and the one year average discount is -10.69%, which means that the current discount to NAV is more than one standard deviation below the average discount over the last year. Source: cefanalyzer Alpha is Generated by High Discount + High Distributions The high distribution rate of 11.46% along with the 15% discount allows investors to capture alpha by recovering a portion of the discount whenever a distribution is paid out. Whenever you recover NAV from a fund selling at a 15% discount, the percentage return is 1.00/ 0.85 or about 17.6%. So the alpha generated by the 11.46% distribution is computed as: (0.1146)*(0.176)=0.0201 or about 2% a year in discount capture alpha. Note that this is way more than the 1.07% baseline expense ratio, so you are effectively getting the fund management for free with a negative effective expense ratio of -0.93%! Ticker: EOD Wells Fargo Advantage Global Dividend Opportunity Fund pays quarterly Total Assets= $361 Million Annual Distribution (Market) Rate= 11.46% Fund Expense ratio= 1.07% Discount to NAV= -14.83% Portfolio Turnover rate= 76% Average Daily Volume= 192,000 Average Dollar Volume= $1.2 million Call Options as a % of total assets= 6.62% No leverage used This looks like a good time to start buying EOD. It is liquid and easy to purchase. Tax loss selling may still be depressing the price, so there may be more purchase opportunities as we approach year end. For those in a high tax bracket, it is probably best to purchase EOD in a tax deferred IRA account since most of the distributions are taxable income. Full Disclosure: Long EOD.

Best And Worst Q4’15: All Cap Blend ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

Summary The All Cap Blend style ranks third in Q4’15. Based on an aggregation of ratings of 60 ETFs and 585 mutual funds. QDEF is our top-rated All Cap Blend style ETF and RMUIX is our top-rated All Cap Blend style mutual fund. The All Cap Blend style ranks third out of the twelve fund styles as detailed in our Q4’15 Style Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the All Cap Blend style ranked third as well. It gets our Neutral rating, which is based on an aggregation of ratings of 60 ETFs and 585 mutual funds in the All Cap Blend style. See a recap of our Q3’15 Style Ratings here. Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst-rated ETFs and mutual funds in the style. Not all All Cap Blend style ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 8 to 3796). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the All Cap Blend style should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 (click to enlarge) * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Seven ETFs are excluded from Figure 1 because their total net assets (TNA) are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 (click to enlarge) * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Jensen Quality Value Fund ( JNVIX and JNVSX ) is excluded from Figure 2 because its total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The FlexShares Quality Dividend Defensive Index ETF (NYSEARCA: QDEF ) is the top-rated All Cap Blend ETF and the Royce Special Equity Multi-Cap Fund (MUTF: RMUIX ) is the top-rated All Cap Blend mutual fund. Both earn a Very Attractive rating. The State Street SPDR SSgA Risk Aware ETF (NYSEARCA: RORO ) is the worst-rated All Cap Blend ETF and the Chou Opportunity Fund (MUTF: CHOEX ) is the worst-rated All Cap Blend mutual fund. RORO earns our Dangerous rating and CHOEX earns our Very Dangerous rating. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO ) is one of our favorite stocks held by RMUIX and earns our Very Attractive rating. Since 2005, Cisco has grown after-tax profits ( NOPAT ) by 7% compounded annually. Over this same timeframe, Cisco has consistently earned a return on invested capital ( ROIC ) above 14% and currently earns a top quintile ROIC of 16%. Despite the strong fundamentals, CSCO shares are up only 1% year-to-date. At its current price of $28/share, Cisco has a price-to-economic book value ratio ( PEBV ) of 0.8. This ratio implies that the market expects Cisco’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 20%. This expectation seems unlikely considering the steady profit growth throughout the company’s history. If Cisco can grow NOPAT by 5% compounded annually for the next five years , the stock is worth $38/share today – a 36% upside. Sears Holding Corps (NASDAQ: SHLD ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by CHOEX and earns our Dangerous rating. Since 2011, Sear’s NOPAT has fallen from $668 million to -$1.1 billion in 2015. The company’s ROIC followed suit as it fell from 3% to a bottom quintile -7% over the same timeframe. While many investors may be aware of the problems that caused SHLD to fall over 50% in the past two years, they may not realize just how high the expectations baked into the current stock price remain. To justify its current price of $24/share, Sears must immediately achieve 3% pre-tax margins (a level last seen in 2008) and grow revenue by 4% compounded annually for the next 11 years . This expectation seems awfully optimistic given that Sears hasn’t grown revenue at all since 2007. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs (click to enlarge) Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Funds (click to enlarge) Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Thaxston McKee receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.