Tag Archives: seeking

Relative Strength In Rising Rate Environments

By Andy Hyer With wide expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates this month, it is worth considering how a momentum strategy tends to perform in a rising interest rate environment. Invesco PowerShares addressed this topic in their September 2015 paper Harnessing the Power of Factor Investing . According to their findings, momentum was able to generate excess returns in both rising rate and declining rate environments. However, the excess returns were higher in rising rate environments. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Some thoughts on why this pattern may occur: By the time rates rise you are typically well off the market bottom and well out of a recession. On average, stocks are at least fairly valued at that point and there aren’t a ton of bargains to be had that are really cheap for obvious reasons. At that point investors look for growth and that is what momentum is good at picking up. Late cycle also means fewer stocks participating in the rally, which is also good from a momentum perspective. Good momentum stocks usually don’t have to rely on cheap financing (they can generate cash flow organically) so they don’t get crimped like value stocks do when rates rise. While many seem to fear what affect a rising interest rate environment will have on stocks, it is worth remembering that rising rates have tended to be good for a momentum strategy. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

5 Lessons Learned From VIX ETFs

The CBOE VIX Volatility Index is an interesting animal that has grown to become one of the most heavily watched indicators of fear and greed in the market. There are currently 20 dedicated exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes that attempt to track this index with varying degrees of success. By their nature, VIX funds are a non-correlated index that is essentially a way to measure when the stock market starts to get shaky. The CBOE VIX Volatility Index is an interesting animal that has grown to become one of the most heavily watched indicators of fear and greed in the market. This index functions by measuring near-term volatility expectations from options activity on the S&P 500 Index. It’s calculated on an intra-day basis, so investors are able to watch as implied volatility expands or contracts in real time. The CBOE has a nice primer on how this is accomplished that you can read here . As many ETF investors know, you can’t invest directly in an index. So the forward-thinking asset managers at Barclays, ProShares, and VelocityShares set out to create several products to help you invest in the movement of the VIX Index. According to data from ETF.com, there are currently 20 dedicated exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes that attempt to track this index with varying degrees of success. The two largest funds in this space are the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ) and VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (NASDAQ: XIV ). Both of these funds currently have over $1 billion in assets under management. VXX is a bet on the expansion of volatility, which typically comes during a correction or choppy stock market action. Conversely, XIV is an inverse play that rises when volatility contracts. This fund is intended to move higher as stocks move higher and greed takes a more prominent position in investor sentiment. There are also many other flavors of VIX funds that offer varying degrees of unique tracking and index construction methodology. Nevertheless, XIV and VXX work well as benchmarks to understand this unconventional asset class. I have been watching and even invested small amounts in these funds for my personal accounts at one point or another and these are the lessons I have learned from the experience. They aren’t for the faint of heart. By their nature, VIX funds are a non-correlated index that is essentially a way to measure when the stock market starts to get shaky. It’s difficult to use these as a forecasting tool and they are often susceptible to VERY fast swings in price . They should truly only be used by disciplined traders, investment professionals, or those who understand their unconventional nature. In my opinion, they should only be held for very short periods of time with a tight stop loss to guard against significant downside risk. They don’t track all that well. These VIX funds work by tracking futures contracts similar to a commodity fund like oil or natural gas. That in itself causes problems in accurate price movement over long periods of time as complicated forces like contract rolls, contango, and expenses work against these products. The chart below depicts an overlay of the actual CBOE VIX Volatility Index and VXX. The movements are certainly correlated to a degree, but you can see how over time the price of the exchange-traded product continues to decay versus the spot price of the index. They aren’t cheap. The listed annual expense ratio of VXX is 0.89% and XIV is 1.35%. It should be expected that a fund investing in futures contracts will naturally generate higher expenses because of the complicated nature of the process. Nevertheless, it’s important to understand that these funds are going to eat into your pocketbook as well. Some come with tax headaches. Most of the investable VIX funds are structured as exchange-traded notes, which do not experience adverse tax consequences. However, if the fund is structured as an exchange-traded fund, it may be susceptible to tax consequences in the form of a K-1 that must be accounted for as well. The K-1 is generated because you are participating as a shareholder in a partnership rather than a trust. It goes without saying that you carefully read the prospectus before investing in any of these funds. They are entertaining to watch. Regardless of whether you use these vehicles, they can be entertaining to watch and also offer some insight into the market’s fickle machinations. VIX ETNs allow individual investors the ability to monitor in real time the current sentiment towards stocks and may provide a piece of the puzzle for short-term traders. They also offer a technical dynamic that may be useful for investors who are fans of relative strength or other momentum indicators. Sharp inflection points in the VIX may point towards a turning point in the market that precedes a big move (up or down). The bottom line is that these products are primarily geared for advanced users with a high tolerance for risk and sophisticated knowledge of the markets. Those that choose to dabble in these funds should only do so with a well-defined risk management plan that protects your capital in the event of a reversal.

IVA Funds Annual Report

The IVA International and Worldwide Fund have had great returns. Both fund hold high amounts of cash. The holdings are very diversified. The IVA International Fund (MUTF: IVIQX ) and the IVA Worldwide Fund (MUTF: IVWIX ) have come out with an Annual Report, which can be found here . Charles de Vaulx and Chuck de Lardamelle are two very well known value managers who run diversified portfolios with some stocks that you won’t see anywhere else. The Worldwide has averaged 9.03% (Institutional Class) since October 1, 2008, versus 6.03% for the MSCI All Country World Index. The International (Institutional Class) has averaged 9.00% over that time frame. Both very good returns. The Worldwide Fund has a broad portfolio including: 4.6% in gold, 3.5% in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ), and 3.3% in Astellas Pharmaceuticals ( OTCPK:ALPMY ). What is interesting is that the fund holds 35.2% in short term investments and 3.2% in sovereign bonds. So almost 40% in cash and over 5% in gold and gold mining. Looks to me like they’re pretty bearish on things. 22.9% of the portfolio is in the U.S., 6% France, and 7% Japan. According to the Annual Report: Our currency hedges helped to offset losses from the strong U.S. dollar, contributing 1.5% to return. At the end of the period, our currency hedges were 51% Japanese yen, 39% Australian dollar, 29% South Korean won, and 30% euro. What I love about these funds is that you just can’t find these stocks any place else. Who else owns Hong Kong & Shanghai Hotels ( OTCPK:HKSHY )? It’s a 50 cent dollar. It’s probably trading at half of net asset value. Who owns bonds in French conglomerate Wendel ( OTCPK:WNDLF )? Their holdings are off the wall and I love it! I don’t need active management to buy Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) and GE (NYSE: GE ). Why pay a high fee for glorified index funds. The International Fund has a similar make up to the Worldwide Fund. 35.2% are short term investments, 8.5% in fixed income, and 4.6% in gold. These are not your run of the mill mutual funds. These managers are allowed to invest as they feel. Some of the larger holdings are the same as noted above plus Nestle ( OTCPK:NSRGY ), Newscorp (NASDAQ: NWS ), and Samsung ( OTC:SSNLF ). International hedged its currencies as well which helped to mitigate the strong dollar. Barron’s wrote an article on the two funds. The article suggests that independent fund companies like IVA have lower fees and less conflicts of interest than funds owned by Wall Street banks. I tend to agree. Are these two managers going to jump ship for higher pay? Probably not as they most certainly have ownership in the firm. I suggest you go to the link and look at the Annual Report. There are so many names that you are probably not familiar with that you are bound to learn something. The Institutional Class’s expense ratio is 1% for each fund. I find that to be quite reasonable. de Vaulx and de Lardamelle have done a good job managing these funds. Putting together a portfolio like this is very difficult for the average person. You may be able to buy American blue chips but can you buy foreign bonds and then hedge the currencies? Probably not. Though the funds are closed to new investors, perhaps they will open again in the future. They are a good addition to a portfolio. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.