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Lipper Fund Flows: Another Miss For Money Markets With $20.2 Billion Exit

By Patrick Keon The S&P 500 Index (+0.41%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.20%) both recorded gains for the flows week. The overall positive performance by the indices for the week marked a significant turnaround from the performance at the start of the week; both indices retreated over 2.5% during the first two trading days. Then the markets rallied over the second half of the week: the S&P 500 was up 3.0% and the Dow appreciated 2.8%. Again, news and speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December dominated the market news during the week. There was sufficient economic data and public signals from individual Fed presidents for the market to take the view that the rate rise in December is becoming a foregone conclusion. Economic data released the prior week showed continued strength in the jobs market, with new unemployment claims remaining low and inflation starting to percolate as U.S. consumer prices rose in October. Both of these areas had been previously pointed to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen as key determinants in the Fed’s decision-making process. Four Fed presidents (New York’s William Dudley, St. Louis’s James Bullard, Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker, and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester) publicly expressed during the week that December is the right time to start lifting rates. The near certainty of a rate increase was taken as a positive by week’s end and was seen as a strong sign the U.S. economy is continuing to improve. This past week’s net outflows for money market funds (-$20.2 billion) pushed their overall outflows for the year so far to $23.2 billion. The week’s activity in the group was varied; funds in Lipper’s Money Market Funds and Institutional Money Market Funds classifications had significant net outflows of $14.6 billion and $13.8 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, Institutional U.S. Government Money Market Funds and Institutional U.S. Treasury Money Market Funds took in $4.5 billion and $3.0 billion of net new money. Equity mutual funds (-$3.3 billion) were responsible for all the net outflows from the equity fund macro-group, while equity ETFs had positive flows of just over $1 billion. Mutual funds saw net outflows from both domestic equity (-$2.6 billion) and nondomestic equity (-$700 million) funds. Among ETFs, the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) (+$693 million) and the United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) (+$373 million) experienced the two largest net inflows for the week. Similar to the equity funds, mutual funds were responsible for all the net outflows for taxable bond funds (-$820 million), while taxable bond ETFs saw their coffers grow $1.2 billion. Investors ran away from lower-quality mutual funds; Lipper’s High Yield Funds and Loan Participation Funds classifications had $1.0 billion and $234 million of net outflows for the week. The Core Bond Funds category paced the ETFs, with the group taking in over $930 million of net new money. Municipal bond mutual funds had net inflows of $263 million-for their seventh consecutive week of positive flows. Funds in Lipper’s national municipal bond fund classifications (+$251 million) accounted for the lion’s share of these positive flows.

The PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy ETF: Enduring Principals

The fund is managed by a global leader of fixed income assets. The fund diverges from the tracking index, but reduces the ‘duration risk’ by doing so. PIMCO’s bond management experience may prove to be an asset as the Fed prepares to change policy. A unique feature of the once popular game show, Jeopardy , was that the answer was the question and the question was the answer. So for example, you might been confronted with the answer: “Ben Franklin, Mark Twain, Daniel Defoe, Christopher Bullock and Edward Ward” Your answer, in the form of a question of course, would be, “Who have been given credit for first saying, ‘ Nothing is certain except for death and taxes’ ?” Indeed and invariably, that seems to be the case. Each may be unavoidable in the end, but in the meantime, with careful planning an investor can take a breather from taxes without being in jeopardy with the IRS by including a tax exempt municipal bond fund in a portfolio. Oddly, compared to other types of taxable bond funds, there aren’t that many plain vanilla funds to choose from. The choices are further narrowed by the three choices of Long , Intermediate or Short maturity funds. Pacific Investment Management Company , commonly recognized by its acronym, PIMCO , is a global investment management firm, specializing in fixed income assets, with over $1.47 trillion under its care. It should be noted, though, PIMCO manages its assets independently, but it is wholly owned by Allianz (OTC: OTCQX:ALIZF ) PIMCO offers the actively managed PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy (NYSEARCA: MUNI ) . According to PIMCO, the fund is: . .. Designed to be appropriate for investors seeking tax-exempt income, the fund consists of a diversified portfolio of primarily intermediate duration, high credit quality bonds, which carry interest income that is exempt from federal tax and in some cases state tax… PIMCO makes a point of noting that: … Unlike index funds that typically rely solely on a rating agency for credit analysis, PIMCO applies extensive research on each municipal bond we own in the fund… …to avoid what we feel are municipalities of deteriorating credit quality in our efforts to protect investors’ capital… Having that extra level of analysis should provide the investor with an extra measure of risk mitigation. The fund tracks Barclays 1-15 Year Municipal Bond Index (LM17TR) : …which consists of a broad selection of investment grade general obligation and revenue bonds of maturities ranging from one year to 17 years… The fund was incepted on November 30, 2009 and currently holds approximately $235.5 million in net assets. Its daily trading volume is noted to be 37,881 ETF shares; hence there’s sufficient liquidity available to enter a position. Since inception, the fund has traded at par with its NAV and recently has traded at a discount of -0.13% to NAV. It should be noted that being able to purchase a bond fund at a discount gives the investor an extra advantage. That being noted, the fund’s shares have a slight bias to trade at a discount to NAV over its history, hence it may be worth choosing the moment for the best entry point. The funds current estimated ‘yield to maturity’ is 2.28% and a distribution yield of 2.29%, (distributions are monthly). Management fees are below the ETF industry average at 0.35% which, again, is another advantage in the long run. The 30 day SEC yield, i.e., after fees and expenses is 1.67%. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from Pimco A word or two needs to be said about a few terms. First, according to Investopedia, Average Effective Maturity is a measure of maturity, taking into account the probability that a bond might be called back to the issuer. At this point it’s worth noting the term embedded option . This is a special condition ‘written into’ a security. For example, a bond might have a ‘ call date ‘: a date on which a bond may be redeemed, or ‘called’, before maturity. For the entire portfolio, which may have a mix of callable and non-callable bonds, the Average Effective Maturity is the weighted average of the maturities taking into account those with a call provision. Another important concept is that of Duration . Without going into a lot of the mathematics of finance, it may be generally understood by an example. Consider a $100,000.00, 3.25%, 15 year fixed rate loan starting today . Looking forward, in a little under 13 years into the loan, the borrower will have paid back $100,000.00 in combined principal and interest. In other words the lending bank breaks even at a little under 13 years. Now start again but fast forward ahead 5 years from the beginning. The borrower has made interest and principal payments amounting to $28093.00; ($5989.00 of that is principal). However, the lender considers those previous five years of payments, amounting to $28093.00, as paid and ‘off the table’. There’s still $94011.00 of principal left to pay. Since the original five years of ‘cash flow’ is off the table, the lender recalculates and figures out that breakeven on the future interest and principal payments occurs in just over 8.5 years. If the recalculation is done after every payment is made and off the table, the ‘breakeven’ will continue to gradually decrease to 0 years, (maturity). Just one more detail is needed: if the loan had a floating rate and interest rates declined, it will take longer to reach that breakeven point. Conversely, if rates increased, breakeven will be attained more quickly . That’s essentially Duration. It’s a way to measure how long it would take for full repayment of the original price of a bond, at the current interest rate via future cash flow and specified in years. If interest rates go up, it takes longer; if interest rates go down, it’s quicker. These calculations are of great importance to fund managers since they often open and close positions before maturity . So why should a retail investor care? The U.S. Federal Reserve sets the benchmark when it comes to interest rates. Recently, the Fed has indicated that, most likely, it will increase the benchmark ‘Fed Funds’ rate by the end of the year. The Fed usually moves in 25 basis point (1/4 point) increments. So if an investor had to choose from bond funds of equal quality holdings, the smart move would be to choose the one with the shortest duration as it would be least impacted by rising interest rates. Analysts like to look at these metrics in different ways or even ‘fine tune’ existing metrics. Indeed, this is the case with bonds. For example, Effective Duration takes into account both callable and non-callable bonds and determines the ‘probable duration’ of the entire portfolio as interest rates fluctuate. Now, having a reasonably good idea of what Duration is, the fund’s Effective Duration is currently 5.07 years. (click to enlarge) The fund’s home page Performance and Risk tab includes an interesting ‘ Key rate Durations ‘, summarized below. It’s an at-a-glance way to see how sensitive a fixed maturity is to a 1% change in market interest rates. Data from Pimco It should be noted that the greatest sensitivity occurs in the 5 to 10 year maturity range, which is 55% of the funds maturity composition. The pie charts below demonstrate the fund’s ‘Maturity Allocation’ as well as the ‘Quality Allocation’ of the fund. (click to enlarge) Just over 47% of total holdings are top quality AA- to AAA. Just over 28% are medium quality A- to A+ and almost 10% are lower quality but investment grade, BBB- to BBB+. Lastly ‘NR’ or ‘Not Rated’ means that, according to the summary prospectus , PIMCO has determined the holding is ‘of comparable quality’ with other bond rating agency grades. It’s also worth noting the fund’s maturity distribution compared with the tracking index. The chart demonstrates that the fund diverges from the index composition significantly; however this does result in a lower duration by just over 31.8%: 5.42 years vs 7.95 year. It should be noted that that the fund does weight strongly the 5 to 10 year maturity range. Those are the maturities with the highest sensitivity to interest rate variations and it does so much heavier than does the index. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The fund charts its sector allocation in an interesting way, both in terms of percentage of total market value as well as percent of total duration. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The holdings include a couple of ‘arcane’ instruments. First are the ‘ Pre-Refunded ‘ holdings. According to the MSRB’s glossary of Municipal Securities Terms: … a refunding in which the refunded issue remains outstanding for a period of more than 90 days after the issuance of the refunding issue… …such refunded bonds are secured solely by an escrow funded with the proceeds of the refunding bonds… …The proceeds of the refunding issue are generally invested in Treasury Securities…. … to pay principal and interest… …on the refunded issue… To put is simply, Pre-Refunded or Advanced Refunded occurs when there’s an overlap in the refunding of an existing issue. The ‘existing issue’ must still meet its obligation, and this is ‘covered’ by the refunding issue’s proceeds and held in escrow. This may partly explain the 4.08% of total holdings as being short term U.S. Treasury Notes. Another interesting holding are the ‘Tobacco Municipal Bonds’. These are bonds issued by a state and funded by a future payment or cash flow due as a result of a settlement or successful lawsuit against a tobacco company. It’s worth noting that tobacco bonds comprise about 2.5% of the municipal bond market. For more on Tobacco Bonds the reader is referred to PIMCO, ” Municipal Tobacco Settlement Bonds: Seeking Value in the Ashes “. MUNI is comparable in returns to the two other funds filtered by the Seeking Alpha ETF Hub . The Fed has indicated that its policy shift will be slow and gradual. This will, no doubt, have some impact on Duration , but when the tax advantage is considered and at the same time having the fund actively managed by the industry leader, it should all add up to make this intermediate municipal bond fund worth holding. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from PIMCO

NYSE Crackdown On… You

Summary The NYSE thinks it knows what is good for you. It is going to ban a number of current trades. Some I like and others I don’t, but none should be banned. The NYSE vs. Traders The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: ICE ) did not like what you did in August. There was all kinds of nonsense what with the buying and selling and prices going this way and that the exchange plans on cracking down early next year. Specifically, it is concerned with “price swings”. It is not taking it any more. To that end, the exchange is banning a number of popular trading tactics starting early next year. Scapegoat #1: Stop Orders On August 24, 2015, there were some such price swings in securities including JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ) and General Electric (NYSE: GE ). One of the first scapegoats was the “stop-loss order”. A stop order is an order to place a market order once a given price is reached. For example, someone could buy a share of GE at a $30 per share with the instruction to sell it at whatever price one can get if it first goes beneath $25. While fewer than 0.3% of NYSE trades are such orders, they were thought to compound the problems in August generally and the 24th in particular. I have never made a stop order. I am certain that I never will. If I want to sell something at $25 that currently costs $30 I would not buy it at $30. That ends my interest in making such orders. But I am delighted if other people want to. In fact, many of the things that would drive a given price down to people’s stop-losses are what might interest me in buying. My colleague Andrew Walker says that he looks for opportunities, “where no one else is looking or where everyone else is panicking”. If people want to sell because a price is lower, that is fine with me. I am grateful for the liquidity in just such circumstances. In short, I try to avoid panicking, but I am staunchly pro-panic. Scapegoat #2: Good Till Canceled Orders The NYSE’s second boogeyman is the good till canceled order. Unlike stop-losses which I never use, I always use good till canceled. The distinction of one trading day versus another is wholly arbitrary to me. Essentially, I am completely price-sensitive but time-insensitive. If I find something that is meaningfully undervalued, then I want to buy it and I will still want to buy it on Tuesday. Yes, I could keep re-typing the same offer each morning at 9:30 AM, but why? If your investing philosophy is as antithetical to mine on GTC orders as it is on stop-losses, then you should be delighted with my participation in the market. I am a liquidity provider to price-insensitive/time-sensitive traders who want to exploit momentum or candlesticks or whatever. The Real Solution You might be a fan or foe of these tactics (I use one of the two). But that is not the important point. If you don’t like using them, then don’t. If you think that someone using one or the other puts himself at a disadvantage, than take the other side of the trade. But what should the exchange do if they want rational, transparent, undistorted pricing? Nothing. Get out of the way. The best, fairest, fastest solution to getting good prices is allowing for bad prices. If a share trades of JPM or GE at $0.01 per share or $1,000,000 per share, then let the trade go through. Enforce all private contracts as they are, not as the probably should be. In the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover recalled Andrew Mellon’s advice, liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people. In short, the solution to a high price is a high price and the solution to a low price is a low price. The worse thing that a government or exchange can do is to interfere with the market’s functioning so that prices are distorted. If they see an “unfair” price that is, to them, too high or too low and put a stop to it to protect one or the other party to the transaction, then they will discourage future market participants from correcting such anomalies. As for me, I buy or sell only when there is a price that is “wrong” and even “unfair”. My entire business is built around exploiting anomalies in the price system. Why would anyone ever want to pay a “right” or “fair” price? The provision of liquidity to the capital market requires the active participation of such exploitative characters. Is this selfish or unsavory? No. It is what allows people to rush out of the market if they are in a rush. It is what allows others to avoid risks that they are ill-suited to judge. It is what allows foundations and pensions and other important investors to provide for their beneficiaries when they need to. What is selfish and unsavory is when market participants demand a bailout. What they mean is that they want a do over at a price that they can live with. If they want a bailout, I am more than happy to offer a bailout as a market participant at a market price. I particularly like bailing out counterparties during maximum chaos and uncertainty. There is a perfectly functional, liquid market. Of course that is not what they mean. They do not necessarily like my price but instead want more money for themselves because they, er, um, just really want it. How is that not selfish? The market itself is the world’s fastest, most efficient and even ruthless regulator. People selling JPM or GE for $0.01 will have a whole lot less influence on markets in the subsequent days. People diligent enough to scour the markets for opportunities to buy during such opportunities will be enriched. They will increase their subsequent influence over the markets. They will motivate themselves and others to correct such mispricing in the future. The bureaucrats in the NYSE are too far away from the floor to realize that they are looking at a problem that is its own solution. Prices are supposed to swing. If you don’t like it, just let them swing and wait. If you do not distort the markets, they will swing back. Stability is a side effect of a freely functioning market, not something that can be achieved by artificial manipulation.