Tag Archives: seeking-alpha

$100,000 Investment Into Yearly Income: The Southern Company Example

Summary A dividend strategy is essentially turning investment into a yearly income stream. Boring utilities stocks can help you generate great levels of wealth. Here is the way it can work for you. In the article “Can A $100K Investment Produce A $50K Yearly Income? Walking The Model Step By Step” I introduced a model to generate an ongoing income steam through initial investment of $100,000 and by reinventing the net dividend flow. There were many comments and feedbacks to this model and I thank all commentators for their good inputs. One key concern that was raised was that achieving a $100,000 worth of savings is almost an impossible challenge these days. Well, I will fool you not. Getting to a significant amount of wealth is not an easy task. It requires both discipline and setting straight the priorities. There is no magic here. In order to achieve significant amount of savings one must put aside a portion of his income. These amounts can be either fixed or it can change from week to week or month to month. Nevertheless there should be constant contribution. In order to achieve something there must be a goal. A goal should be set realistically based on the ability to routinely contribute to the accumulated wealth. In the next example I will continue to use the $100,000 as the goal. After we set our mindset straight and agreed to take responsibility over our spending and savings, and after we set up a goal that is reasonable to achieve, how can we generate wealth using dividend investing strategy? The example of The Southern Company I decided to use The Southern Company (NYSE: SO ) as an example as it is conceived as a boring type of investment. It is less exciting from the growth machines out there but it can definitely fit to our purpose of generating wealth. SO is a holding company that operates in the South East counties of the U.S. It owns Alabama Power Company, Georgia Power Company, Gulf Power Company, and Mississippi Power Company, each of which operates as a public utility company. SO is the 16th largest utility company in the world, and the fourth largest in the U.S. It serves more than 4.5 million customers in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi. The company was founded back in 1945 and began paying quarterly dividends in 1972. SO never had a dividend cut and has been steadily increasing its dividend since the year 2002. An investor who decided back in November 2005 (ten years ago) to regularly invest in SO, to routinely invest $450 per month and buy more shares. And alongside during this period, each quarter he reinvested the dividends after tax to buy more of SO’s shares he could have reached the $100,000 goal by the end of 2014. Even after the 2015 correction in the Utilities’ stock prices he would have reached the goal again by the month of September 2015. It means that based on these particular assumptions the goal was achieve after nine years. Let’s see how it worked in more details. The investment Since SO paid a quarterly dividend through the assumed period, the investment is built out of two elements: the first one is the monthly contributions of a fixed $450. That means yearly contributions of $5,400 each year. The second element is the dividends net of 25% tax rate which have constantly grew from year to year. The higher dividends together with the higher number of accumulated shares delivered an everlasting growing purchasing power to buy more shares. As we can see in the next graph, during the recent years the dividend became a significant portion of the yearly investment and by 2014 it was about 40% of the $8,568 yearly investment. The shares accumulation The monthly contributions allowed to constantly increase the amount of shares but the accumulation was highly dependent on the share price. The next graph shows the yearly stock price average during the recent ten years alongside the accumulated number of shares during each period. At times of high stock price the accumulation power was lower. The situation of the zero interest rate brought the stock price to recent highs and by that reduced the buying power of the routine contributions. In a scenario of a hiking interest rate we might see SO’s stock price going down and by that a fix accumulation will allow to purchase more shares. The total investment value: The dividend yield went down from the levels of 6-7% in the years 2005-2009 to the levels of 5% in the recent years due to the stock price hike. But this exact hike also drove the holding value to higher levels and led the total value to exceed $100,000 by December 2014. If indeed the interest rate hike will arrive soon (and it depends how high it would reach in the next couple of years) the value of the portfolio will be highly volatile and might go down in value. The income: Which brings us to the last piece. The accumulated holding at the value of $100,000 generates in 2015 a yearly net income of $3,566. As this machine will continue to work it would grow its income power even higher. Even if the stock price will go down due to a FED’s action the power of time and reinvestment will allow to accelerate the income machine even faster (as lower stock price allows to accumulate more shares). If you are interested in the excel model behind this example you can find it here . Conclusions: Even a boring type of investment like SO can serve well the patient investor to generate wealth using a sound dividend investment strategy. Dividend strategy cannot depend on a sole stock and should be based on a diversified portfolio. The monthly contributions should be aimed towards high quality stocks that face temporary headwinds but have long and proven history. Nowadays this list may include companies like Chevron (NYSE: CVX ), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP ), Deere & Company (NYSE: DE ), Eaton (NYSE: ETN ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ), HCP (NYSE: HCP ) and other names from the Industrial sector. A consistent strategy of constant contributions and dividends reinvestment will allow to obtain sound results overtime. There would be those who would criticize the length of the time required to achieve the goal at it was shown in this example. As mentioned earlier: there is no magic here. In order to accelerate the accumulation and reduce the length of time the monthly contributions should be higher. For example, a monthly contribution of a $1,000 would have reduce the time by ~40% allowing the goal to be achieved in early 2011 or after six and a half years. There are highly subjective decisions to be made and it will vary from one person to the other, but if the mindset should be set to take responsibility over your financials, a sound goal should be set and the only thing left is to execute the strategy. Happy investing.

Retail ETFs Hit Hard By Soft September Sales

September seems to be a doomed month as it repeatedly ascertained the lost growth momentum in the U.S. economy. First, soft job and manufacturing data and then a weaker-than-expected retail sales report reconfirmed that the impetus had gone astray. Retail sales (barring autos) dived 0.3% in September, the largest decline since January, and below economists’ expectation of a decline of just 0.1%. Though consumers spent on cars and at food joints, sales targeted at e-commerce, general-merchandise stores, home centers, grocery stores, electronics stores and appliances lacked, per the source. Retail sales barring automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services dropped 0.1% after 0.2% expansion in August. Overall, retail sales nudged up 0.1% on cheaper fuel prices against August sales which were revised down from 0.2% gain to flat. As per Retail Dive , hurricane in the Southeast spoilt sales in that region while a soothing weather weighed on fall clothing purchases. Fragile wage growth appears another factor behind this sales slump. Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. GDP, this blow to retail sales remains a matter of concern. This is more so as consumers saved a considerable amount from low fuel prices. But these savings are hardly being spent at stores. This proves that the last recession is still fresh in the memory of consumers, who are extra cautious about loosening their purse strings for discretionary purchases. However, autos had a safe journey in September, with sales expanding 1.7% in the month and representing the largest gains since May, per Bloomberg. All the three retail ETFs – SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT ), Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH ) and PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PMR ) – closed in the negative following the somber retail sales data. Weak earnings guidance from retail-behemoth Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) also did substantial damage to the sector. The funds were off about 1%, 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. While the results surely caught many investors off guard, we should wait for another month before drawing a conclusion on the momentum level in the U.S. economy. After all, the ongoing fourth quarter embraces the all-important holiday season, which is apparently the key selling-season for retailers. Plus, with the tentative timeline of the Fed rate hike shifting back to not before early 2016, U.S. consumers will see cheap money inflows for some more months. A few more months of low-rate environment in turn may persuade consumers to spend at stores rather than stuffing energy savings in their bank accounts. Muted job growth is an issue; but probably it’s too early to take a call on the fate of retail sales. Original Post

Refined Approach To Energy ETFs

Oil refiners could outperform in energy space. Widening spread between crude and refined products help support refiners. An ETF option that tracks some strengthening oil refineries. In the energy space, oil refiners and sector-related exchange traded fund could outpace the big oil and services names as refineries capitalize on the cheap crude oil and higher prices on refined products. Investors interested in tracking the oil refinery space can take a look at the Market Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (NYSEArca: CRAK ) , which began trading in August. CRAK has gained 3.6% over the past month. “Refiners have been the lone bright spot in the energy sector during the past year, handily outperforming every other subsector,” writes Allen Good, who is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar . “While oil prices have deteriorated, refining margins have improved, thanks to strength in gasoline margins due to key refinery outages and strong demand.” Gasoline demand, which is nearing its 2007 record high, and supply disruptions from refinery outages have bolstered gasoline margins about 50% this year. While we are at the end of the summer driving season, Good expects demand growth outside of normal seasonality, thanks to help from cheap oil prices. Good also projects improved earnings in the refining space as short-term investments. Oil refiners have not taken large, capital-intensive expansions or acquisitions. Instead, companies have capitalized on the availability of discount crude and natural gas or improving yields. “These projects typically require much less capital (processing capacity is much cheaper for light crude than heavy crude), have short payback periods, and generate attractive returns,” Good added. “Thanks to the completion of many of these projects, as well as improved operating performance, refiners can generate earnings growth in a flat-margin environment.” For example, Tesoro (NYSE: TSO ) shows ongoing improvement and is adding integration programs in California. HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC ) is investing in improvement projects. Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC ) added increased condensate processing, distillate production and exports. Western Refining (NYSE: WNR ) invested in logistics projects. CRAK includes a 5.5% tilt toward TSO, 5.0% in HFC, 6.9% in MPC and 3.4% in WNR. Refiners are also investing in midstream assets, which can provide earnings and achieve higher midcycle returns, with less volatility, Good said. Furthermore, many refiners have generated free cash flow, which have been returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. While yields have remained relatively low, dividend growth is picking up. CRAK’s underlying index shows a 30-day SEC yield of 1.51%. Disclosure: None. Max Chen contributed to this article .