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SolarCity Q1 Demand Nipped By Rivals Sunrun, Vivint Solar

No. 1 residential installer SolarCity ( SCTY ) lagged rivals Sunrun ( RUN ) and Vivint Solar ( VSLR ), as March solar applications in California declined year over year, while the entire segment trailed triple-digit commercial growth, a Credit Suisse analyst said Thursday. Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin’s report follows SolarCity’s Q1 earnings, released late Monday. SolarCity stock was blistered this week on Q2 guidance that missed views, while its 2016 installation outlook was cut on Q1 bookings that fell 150 megawatts flat. Sunrun is slated to report its Q1 earnings late Thursday. In midday trading on the stock market today , SolarCity stock was down 1.5%, after its shares dove 21% on Tuesday in reaction to the company’s earnings report. Sunrun and Vivint stocks were down 3% and 1%, respectively, midday Thursday. SolarCity’s “horrendous” bookings and weak guidance appear to be self-inflicted, Jobin wrote in a research report. “We do see modest growth decelerating in California but note that all growth is not gone,” he wrote. “Sunrun, who reports this afternoon, appears to have fared better in Q1.” For Q1, Sunrun is expected to report $87.7 million in sales, down 12% quarter over quarter, and a 48-cent per-share loss minus items, widening from a 15-cent loss in the previous quarter. SolarCity and Vivint each reported March-quarter losses this week. Excluding Nevada — which accounted for 12 MW in Sunrun’s backlog — Q1 deployments are expected to be flat sequentially. SolarCity and Sunrun exited Nevada in December when regulators cut net-metering payments to solar customers. In March, SolarCity’s residential applications fell 8% year over year vs. 17% and 23% growth from Sunrun and Vivint, respectively, Jobin wrote. Total residential applications for 73 MW of solar to utility companies grew 14.5% vs. last year. The commercial segment was the main driver in March, where 41 MW in total applications were up 136% year over year. Third-party ownership also picked up in March, reaching 62% of all residential applications vs. the 60% average for the second half of 2015.

Sunrun Q1 Losses Set To Mirror SolarCity, Vivint On Nevada Strife

No. 2 residential installer Sunrun ( RUN ) will join top rivals SolarCity ( SCTY ) and Vivint Solar ( VSLR ) in posting a wider loss in Q1, according to the consensus of eight analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Sunrun stock closed flat Wednesday, at 6.37, ahead of its Q1 earnings out after the close Thursday. Shares are down 46% for the year, where IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group is down 41.5%. The group ranks a low No. 170, out of 197 groups tracked. For Q1, Sunrun is expected to report $87.7 million in sales, down 12% sequentially, and a 48-cent per-share loss minus items, widening from a 15-cent loss in the previous quarter. Three months ago, Sunrun guided to 56 megawatts in Q1 deployments, down 18% quarter over quarter. The guide excludes a 12 MW backlog after Sunrun pulled its Nevada operations on regulators’ decision to cut net-metering payments to solar customers. SolarCity also pulled its Nevada operations which, the company says, accounted for about 20 MW in quarterly installations. On Monday, SolarCity cut its 2016 installation guidance, citing slow Q1 bookings related to exiting Nevada.

SolarCity Burns On ‘Alarmingly Weak’ Q1; Vivint Joins SunEd Case

IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group hit a three-year low Tuesday after No. 1 residential installer SolarCity ( SCTY ) cut its 2016 guidance on slow Q1 bookings and rival Vivint Solar ( VSLR ) missed quarterly views on growing losses. Late Monday, Vivint Solar said it would participate in the bankruptcy case against ex-acquirer SunEdison “to maximize the recovery from claims against SunEdison.” Vivint scrapped the sale four months before SunEd filed for bankruptcy, an expected move. Midday on the stock market today , SolarCity stock crashed 25.2%, leading an industrywide 5.5% dip. Shares of top rivals Sunrun ( RUN ) and Vivint Solar trailed, down 7.4% and 6.7%, respectively. Yieldco TerraForm Power ( TERP ) stock slid 2.6%. SolarCity Q1 Booking Topple 33% For Q1, SolarCity reported $123 million in sales, up 82% vs. the year-earlier quarter, and topping the consensus for $108.4 million. But losses per-share minus items deepened to $2.56 vs. $1.53 in the year-ago period and analyst views for $2.31. Installations grew 40% year over year to 214 megawatts, topping guidance for 180 MW, but 160 MW in bookings fell 33% vs. the year-earlier quarter, SolarCity said Monday. For Q2, SolarCity expects 185 MW in installations, down 2% year over year. Current-quarter losses guidance for $2.70-$2.80 per-share ex items missed the consensus for $2.13 and would widen from $1.61 in the year-earlier quarter. SolarCity also cut its 2016 guidance to a range of 1 gigawatt to 1.1 GW in installations vs. earlier views for 1.25 GW, citing slow Q1 bookings related to Nevada’s decision to cut net-metering payments to solar customers. The Nevada decision spooked potential customers, SolarCity said. Vivint Solar Bookings Growth Tops SolarCity Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin cut his price target on SolarCity stock to 38 from 62, but reiterated an outperform rating. SolarCity’s “alarmingly weak bookings (will) derail 40% growth outlook,” he wrote in a research report. “SolarCity seems to be faced with reproving the merits of their business model each quarter — facing either operational, regulatory, capital or competitive challenges — in addition to painfully, yet gradually, transitioning the strategy more toward value than growth,” he wrote. Jobin lowered his 2016 installation view to 16% MW growth. Also late Monday, Vivint Solar reported $16.6 million in Q1 sales on a 65-cent per-share loss minus items, missing Wall Street views for $17.6 million and a 61-cent loss. Sales grew 93% year over year, but losses deepened from 61 cents in the year-ago quarter. But, Vivint’s Q1 bookings grew 33% year over year to 66 MW, leading 19% growth in installations to 55 MW.