Twitter Advertising Growth, User Numbers, Under Pressure In Q4?
When Twitter ( TWTR ) reports earnings on Wednesday, analysts will be looking to see if the social media firm known for its global reach has managed to boost its user numbers. During the past year, Twitter has brought in a new CEO, made numerous other executive suite changes, acquired new companies and added new services. Still, its user numbers are expected to remain stagnant in Q4, and Twitter remains under fire from Wall Street. Twitter stock has remained below its 2013 IPO price of 26 since November as analysts worry about the impact that sluggish user growth will have on Twitter’s profitability, as the microblog’s user base could affect its ultimate ability to charge for ads. “We believe positive ad pricing trends drove Q4 revenue towards the high end of guidance, but user growth likely was stagnant,” wrote Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter on Friday in an industry research note. On Friday, Twitter stock tumbled to close at near a record low after getting a price target cut from Wedbush. The investment bank predicts that Twitter won’t show meaningful user growth when it reports Q4 earnings, because the service remains too hard for the average user to figure out, compared to other social media. Monthly active users of the service — excluding SMS Fast Followers who can get tweets on their phones without being registered users — rose by just 5 million to 307 million from Q1 to Q3, Pachter wrote. He doesn’t appear to have high hopes for Moments, the service that Twitter launched last fall to showcase hot news topics and draw more non-registered users to the site. “We do not think that Moments drove a meaningful increase in users, as much of the content remains outdated or irrelevant,” said Pachter. Attrition of high-level staff is also a concern. In late January, Pachter said, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced that the SVP of Engineering, SVP of Product, VP of Global Media and VP of Human Resources had all “chosen to leave,” with the GM of video service Vine also departing. “We believe that had Moments been an early success, the executives would not have left so soon, voluntarily or otherwise,” Pachter said. He said that since Facebook ( FB ) reported that its average price per ad was up 21% year over year in Q4 — with the increase driven in part by the shift to mobile — “positive ad pricing trends drove Q4 revenue towards the high-end of guidance” for Twitter, too. Wedbush cut its price target on Twitter stock to 20 from 30, and Pachter maintains a neutral rating on Twitter stock. Advertising, which makes up 90% of Twitter’s total revenues, will “see continued deceleration over time,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney in a report on Friday. “Our concern for some time has been that Twitter’s lack of real-time commercial intent (a la Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google) or detailed, authentic profiles (a la Facebook) will eventually limit Twitter’s growth potential.” Mahaney said that he expects Twitter to generate $2.02 for every monthly active user in Q4 vs. Facebook’s $3.59, compared with $1.60 and $2.83 in Q3. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are modeling Twitter to post revenue of $709.9 million, up 48% year over year. The consensus opinion is that Twitter’s EPS ex items will remain flat year over year at 12 cents. For Q1, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Twitter to see revenue rise 44% to $629.3 million and post EPS ex items of 8 cents, up 14% year over year. In late January, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali said that Twitter’s muted stock price might prompt a buyout of the social media company. “Twitter’s current valuation, unique offering and sizable user base makes it a strategic asset for a number of potential buyers, be they technology or media companies,” wrote Squali, who maintained a buy rating on Twitter stock. He said a buyout of Twitter is a little easier than for some other companies because “there is no concentration of share ownership and no super-voting structure, with the top three shareholders owning 6.4%, 5.1%, and 5.0%, respectively.” Besides Facebook, Squali says potential suitors for Twitter, which has a market value near $11 billion, include tech companies Alphabet and Microsoft ( MSFT ), as well as media companies Twenty-First Century Fox ( FOXA ), Walt Disney ( DIS ), Comcast ( CMCSA ) and Time Warner ( TWX ). Late Friday, Buzzfeed reported that Twitter might abandon its reverse chronological timeline display and switch to an algorithimic system.