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Criteo On Being Facebook ‘Frenemy’ And Why Ad-Blocking Didn’t Stick

Ad tech firm Criteo saw its stock slip last year on fears that it would lose sales after consumer electronics giant Apple opened the door to ad blocking on its iOS devices. After all, Criteo ( CRTO ) embeds browser cookies — tiny text files that let websites recognize users and their preferences when they return to a site — for 52% of the 100 largest retail and travel websites in the U.S. Criteo gets paid for serving ads only if a user clicks on them, and it collects a bigger cut if the user goes on to buy a product from or otherwise engage with that advertiser. But Criteo bucked those concerns after the Apple ( AAPL ) ad-block threat didn’t play out. In mid-February, the Paris-based company posted healthy Q4 earnings that showed rising numbers of clients, a continuing advertising partnership with social media leader Facebook ( FB ), efforts to invent “disruptive products” and plans to beef up its business in China, one of the world’s largest e-shopping markets. On other levels, Criteo still competes with Facebook and is also a rival of ad networks run by major Internet companies, including Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google and Amazon.com ( AMZN ). IBD recently spoke with Criteo CFO Benoit Fouilland about what it’s like being a Facebook “frenemy” and where the company will direct its efforts and resources this year. IBD: Wall Street worried that ad blocking might hurt your company’s revenue, which depends on people seeing ads and then taking action. But impact has been minimal so far. Why is that? Fouilland: There has been considerable talk about ad blocking over the last two months, and there has been some overreaction about that topic. But ad blocking has been here for quite a long time. It’s not a new phenomenon, although Apple made the announcement that iOS 9 would enable the use of ad blockers. But in reality, a maximum of 10% of the users worldwide are using ad blocking, primarily within desktop, although there is some use in mobile. Why do people use ad blocking? It’s a very simple reason — because they can’t stand the very intrusive ads that some industry players are using, in particular the pop-ups or pre-roll video type of ads that are very annoying. But we are not using any of those intrusive formats for one simple reason — our business model is to create engagement. We get paid only if there is engagement with our ads. So we don’t want to annoy anybody with our ads. We want to create an incentive for people by showing them very relevant ads, non-intrusive ads, to give them an incentive to click on the ads. IBD: What is your company’s ad partnership with Facebook? Fouilland: Facebook has been our partner for more than three years. They have a lot of advertising inventories that they wish to monetize. We were an early partner with Facebook when they launched their first initiative, which was the Facebook Exchange, which they created to monetize their ad inventory on desktop. More recently, Facebook has been developing a new solution to monetize its ad inventory within the mobile application, as Facebook is more and more used through mobile. We have been the first partner in that effort, as they publicly disclosed in Q4 2014. IBD: Could Facebook eventually start offering that service themselves and then not need Criteo? Fouilland: They don’t have the predictive capability, which is the core of what we do at Criteo — to predict the behavior of the user based on all the integrations that we have with advertisers. They don’t have all of the breadth of relationships with advertisers, with integration into the shopping data of the advertiser. All of that is what we bring to Facebook. But we are in an industry where very often your friends are sometimes also your enemies. But in this particular case, I think we have a very mutually beneficial partnership, where we bring to them unique capabilities with respect to performance-driven advertising demand. IBD: Can you talk about your company’s innovation efforts? Fouilland: Out of 1,800 people in the company, we’ve got 400 people in research and development. That R&D team is divided between Paris and Palo Alto. In the U.S., we have about 100 people on the West Coast. The core of our technology is machine-learning technology, and those are mathematical algorithms that predict the behavior of users. So the core is research and constant improvement on those algorithms. We have a team of 50 people working on a proof of concept on search marketing. We have a small team working on another concept of what we call offline — how can we make the link between what is happening within your store to what is happening online. That’s a very interesting field. You see more and more people going online and then searching for items in stores and vice versa — people who look at products in the store and then go online to buy them. If you are able to link information about purchase intent in-store or online, it could offer new opportunities. We also have a proof of concept going on in the U.S. and Europe where we capture shopping intent data within stores, thanks to using beacon technology. IBD: In your industry, there are so many companies right now. Do you see consolidation ahead? Fouilland: If you look at performance advertising — and particularly display advertising — it’s an industry where scale matters a lot. Today, if you look at the competitive landscape, most of our direct competitors that have emerged after us have been somehow acquired over the last 18 months. They were not acquired as a consolidation movement in the industry, but more because it became very clear for those direct competitors that they were sub-scale, and they joined broader groups. For example, TellApart has been acquired by Twitter ( TWTR ), and you’ve seen that Tesco-Dunnhumby in the U.K. acquired Big Data tech firm Sociomantic, which was another competitor in Europe. I would not call that a real consolidation, though, because it’s not that the market has consolidated and there are only a few players left now. It’s more that with some players ahead of the game, like ourselves, it was difficult for the new entrants who were sub-scale in this very much “winner-take-all” type of dynamic in our industry. Most of the smallest competitors have been acquired by larger players — not that those smaller competitors are out of the market, but they are now under the umbrella of larger players. IBD: Will Criteo be looking to make any acquisitions this year? Fouilland: We’ve made four acquisitions in the history of the company, so we are active at (surveying) the market for good companies that could bring us complementary technologies. We are considering making acquisitions only if there is a strong rationale from a tech standpoint to ensure that it would help us accelerate our development. IBD: What is your company’s strategy in China? Is Alibaba Group ( BABA ) one of your customers there? Fouilland: We opened an office in Beijing two years ago, and we are in the process of opening another office in Shanghai. We have roughly 25 people on the ground in China. We made a significant investment last year in setting up a data center in Shanghai, the reason being that we ultimately manage a lot of data in order to target users. We are one of the very few international companies with data-center capabilities within mainland China. We now have the foundation for developing domestic demand in China. That’s certainly an area of focus for us in 2016. I can’t make any comment specifically about Alibaba. We have partnerships with multiple large players in China.

First Solar Tops Wall Street Q4 Views, But Lowers 2016 Sales Guide

No. 1 solar installer First Solar ( FSLR ) topped Wall Street’s Q4 and 2015 views late Tuesday but lowered its 2016 sales guidance by $100 million, largely as a result of the late-2015 extension of a key solar tax credit. First Solar’s Q4 earnings, released after the close Tuesday, came hours after the company announced it had surpassed 6 gigawatts in cumulative installed capacity in its power plant segment globally. Worldwide, First Solar is installing about 30 to 40 megawatts per week on 2 GW of active projects, the company says. First Solar stock was up 3% in after-hours trading following the release of its earnings, and No. 2 installer SunPower ( SPWR ) was up 1.5%. First Solar stock fell 3.8% in Tuesday’s regular session, and SunPower shares lost 6.1%. Yield company 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ), a First Solar-SunPower partnership, plunged 6.8% in Tuesday’s regular session. EPS Shatters Expectations For Q4, First Solar reported $942 million in sales and $1.60 earnings per share, down 6.5% and 15%, respectively, vs. the year-earlier quarter. Both measures beat the consensus expectations of 19 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $929 million and just 76 cents. During Q4, First Solar saw 761 MW in solar rooftop production, up 50% vs. the year-earlier quarter, CFO Mark Widmar told analysts during the company’s earnings conference call. In all of 2015, the company produced 2.5 GW, up 36%. First Solar wrapped up 2015 with $3.6 billion in sales and a record-smashing $5.37 EPS, up a respective 6% and 37% and topping the consensus for $3.56 billion and $4.51. Three months earlier, First Solar guided to $3.5 billion-$3.6 billion in sales and $4.30-$4.50 in EPS. Bookings hit the 3.4 GW mark in 2015, Widmar said. But First Solar lowered its 2016 sales guidance to $3.8 billion-$4 billion — which would be down 8% at the midpoint — from its previous guidance of $3.9 billion-$4.1 billion. First Solar maintained its $4-$4.50 EPS guidance, which would be down 21% at the midpoint. Prior Guidance Discounted ITC First Solar CEO Jim Hughes, speaking on the call, described 2015 as an “outstanding” year. First Solar delivered on its promise circa-2014 to reach 22% cell conversion efficiency within its solar modules, with a record 22.1% announced Tuesday. CFO Widmar noted First Solar’s earlier 2016 guidance didn’t include the possibility of an extension to the Investment Tax Credit on solar power. Congress extended the ITC, a key subsidy underpinning the solar industry, in late December. Wall Street previously saw a cliff for 2017 installations, with the ITC scheduled to sunset Dec. 31, 2016. Now, some projects planned to have been completed in 2016 — to benefit from the outgoing ITC — have been extended into 2017, Widmar told analysts. “The outlook we provided at the time did not incorporate the extension of the ITC,” he said. “Some projects could be extended into 2017 to achieve lower installation cost per watt on the construction of these plans.” He added: “While our guidance anticipates we will recognize a significant portion of California Flats in 2016,” two other big projects will be recognized entirely in 2017. California Flats is a 280 MW project in Monterey County, Calif., about 100 miles south of San Francisco. Apple ( AAPL ) is a partner in the project and will be using much of the energy generated. 8point3 Drop-Downs Hit Sales First Solar’s 2016 sales outlook was also impacted by project drop-downs to the 8point3 yieldco. SunPower experienced the same shifted revenue conundrum when issuing Q1 guidance that halved analyst projections earlier this month. First Solar isn’t leaving much business on the table in 2016, Widmar said. But the ability to push projects out to 2017 “gives us a little bit more flexibility in terms of supply.” Hughes said the ITC extension removed some of the uncertainty shadowing the U.S. solar market. First Solar is now seeing utilities embrace solar and new developers in new territories seeking greener energy. The ITC extension “allowed us to advance some of our own projects, it allows our customers to advance some of their projects, and it’s firmed up what the financial environment looks like,” he said. “The competitive environment has improved a little bit vs. the past 18 months or so.”

Discretionary Group May Hint At Outlook For 2016 Economy

Cosmetics and personal care products are discretionary purchases. Granted, some people consider the products essential, and if you’re gripping the subway pole near the guy who decided to quit buying deodorant, maybe it no longer seems so discretionary. Yet, you only have to read the 10-K report for Estee Lauder ( EL ) to learn that personal care products and cosmetics are discretionary enough to take hits in economic downturns. One explanation is that people cut corners to save money during a recession. But Estee Lauder points out a more convoluted concern. “We generally extend credit to a retailer based on an evaluation of its financial condition, usually without requiring collateral,” the company 10-K reported. If the retailer is experiencing difficulties, the company may “curtail or eliminate business with that customer.” The Cosmetics-Personal Care industry group sometimes can signal trouble before its widespread. In November 2007, when stocks peaked just before the recession’s official start, the personal care group had already been declining since mid-2007. So, with all the talk of a potential U.S. recession in 2016, it’s only natural to ask how the personal care group is doing. The group is doing quite well — rising from No. 60 among 197 industry groups to No. 15, as of Tuesday’s IBD. Estee Lauder makes products covering skin care, makeup, fragrances and hair care. The company is expected to grow earnings 3% in fiscal 2016 ending in June. However, the Street expects earnings to grow 13% in fiscal 2017. Quality funds with positions in Estee Lauder include Fidelity Magellan Fund ( FMAGX ), which opened a position in Q4; Fidelity Balanced Fund ( FBALX ), which increased its stake 47% in Q4; and Fidelity Contrafund ( FCNTX ), which trimmed its position 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The stock is in the 5% buy zone after retaking an entry in soft trade. Prestige Brands ( PBH ) holds brands including Beano, Dramamine, Murine, Spic And Span and Anacin. The stock is building the right side of a base. In fiscal 2015 ended in March, Prestige Brands grew earnings 22% on a 20% pop in revenue. The Street expects EPS to grow 15% and 11% in fiscal 2016 and 2017, respectively. Funds have held a fairly steady exposure in Prestige. Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Value Fund ( SSMVX ) held almost 24,000 shares, as of Dec. 31. However, that represented a 49% reduction from the previous quarter. Natural Health Trends ( NHTC ) is a direct seller of personal care and wellness products. Earnings have leapt by triple-digit percentages in each of the past nine quarters. The stock has been a wild trader, dropping as much as 70% in its current consolidation. Image by Shutterstock