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Microsoft, Not Apple Or Alphabet, Is Wearables King … In Patents

The 2014 debut of Apple’s iWatch and the release of the Google Glass computing eyewear the prior year stamped both tech giants as leading innovators of wearables. Except that neither Apple ( AAPL ) nor Google parent Alphabet ( GOOGL ) is actually the leading innovator in wearables. Microsoft ( MSFT ) is. At least, Microsoft is No. 1 worldwide when looking at patents for wearable-related technology, according to LexInnova, a patents-consulting firm. Microsoft has 757 wearables patent filings, Rana Pratap, LexInnova’s principal consultant for technology, told IBD. At least 53 filings are directly related to wrist devices. Another 13 are related to eyewear. Netherlands-based Philips ( PHG ) is right behind in wearables-related intellectual property, with 756 wearables patents and patent applications. Alphabet, parent of Google, has 602 to place at No. 3, and the patent numbers drop off precipitously from there, says LexInnova, which recently researched the topic . Apple, for instance, has only 197 filings, says LexInnova. Wearables startup Fitbit ( FIT ) has 192 filings. That is a good bit of patent activity, but then again, this market is already generating a good bit of revenue. “We estimate the wearables market at $8.9 billion in wholesale device revenue in 2015,” Cliff Raskind, an analyst for market research firm Strategy Analytics, told IBD. While some of Microsoft’s wearables portfolio is getting old — U.S. patents last no more than 20 years — Pratap says that, collectively, the patents remain strong. So, Microsoft’s wearables patent portfolio doesn’t just have quantity, but also quality. LexInnova uses a proprietary algorithm involving about 50 factors, including patent age, the number of times a patent has been cited in other companies’ patent filings, and court rejection of challenges to a patent, to judge the quality of patent portfolios, Pratap explains. Without giving details, he said Microsoft’s is strong. What Are Microsoft’s Plans For Wearables? But the ramifications of Microsoft’s wearables-patent activity are unclear. Satya Nadella, who was promoted to Microsoft CEO two years ago, is focused on companywide strategies designed to recharge Microsoft’s growth. Microsoft, like any company, could develop products based on its patents, license its patents or both. The company last month disclosed that it has signed 1,200 licensing agreements of all kinds since launching its IP licensing program in December 2003. One of the most recent agreements  involved licensing wearables-related technology to Olio Devices, a niche watchmaker. “Maybe Microsoft has been watching what Google’s doing (with technology licenses) and longingly remembering their big (operating system) licensing days,” said Raskind. “That could be where they are going with the Olio deal.” Pratap says 700 of Microsoft’s wearables patents are based on Microsoft’s own research. “According to our analysis, 49 patents and applications (were) acquired from Tangis,” he said. Microsoft  acquired another seven from Osterhout Group and one was acquired from Antenova. So what, if anything, is Microsoft planning in wearables? “I’m not necessarily watching for a Microsoft wearables pop-up retail store next Christmas,” said Amy Webb, founder of technology forecasting and strategy consulting firm Webbmedia Group. Webb and others say there are more lucrative, near-term markets for wearables for Microsoft to exploit with its portfolio. More on that in a moment… Microsoft’s intellectual-property cache might surprise some. The company sells only one internally developed wearable product, the Band 2 fitness tracker bracelet, and executives say they will begin selling eyewear called HoloLens by April. Plus, executives rarely discuss Microsoft’s large overall patent portfolio. Indeed, Microsoft declined to comment for this story. “Whenever we do a patent analysis like this, we find that the biggest (technology) companies in a sector have the most patent filings,” Pratap said, thanks to their often large research-and-development units. R&D spending by Microsoft has been gradually rising since 2010, reaching $12 billion in 2015, according to market-statistics firm Statista. Pratap points out that Microsoft’s wearables portfolio began before it had a wearables product line. The earliest relevant patents resulted from other research projects. Over time, these innovations were recognized as addressing the new wearables market. This is common for tech and manufacturing companies, he says. Microsoft Tech Licenses Built Its Business Like all successful technology innovators, Microsoft has much experience — good and bad — with developing products and licensing technology. The company’s first hits were the MS-DOS and Window operating systems, both of which were licensed so extensively that Microsoft endured years of antitrust lawsuits in the U.S. and Europe. There have been notable failures, too. Microsoft intellectual property was used to develop the firm’s Zune digital music hardware. Microsoft also licensed Zune technology. Neither approach could save the entertainment player, which was discontinued last fall. Webb says developing products and licensing technology each have advantages and disadvantages. Licensing intellectual property typically brings modest, low-risk and ongoing revenue. A disadvantage of licensing is that it can put the licensee in the background when the technology succeeds in someone else’s product. Development costs more compared with licensing and puts any failure in a company’s lap. But the potential revenue upside is far larger, and the company is tied visibly to market success. While Webb says she has not had any contact with Microsoft regarding wearables, she feels the company is not likely to focus its related intellectual property solely or even primarily on consumer goods like fitness trackers. She said the most immediate market is for business-to-business applications (as was the case for MS-DOS), and what she calls “B-to-D” — business-to-doctor. Health-monitoring and diagnostic roles for wearables are growing today, and they should continue to expand as medical wearables become small, inexpensive and sophisticated, Webb said. But rival Apple is making an aggressive bid to invade health care with mobile devices, including the iWatch, and HealthKit, the company’s software platform for health-related applications. According to Black Book Market Research, almost 70% of physicians using medical apps do so on iPhones . That is a size-14 foot in the door for Apple. Webb says the promise of significant new revenue and the need to keep Apple at bay are likely to persuade Nadella to sift Microsoft’s patent portfolio for related innovations.

If Workday Beat Consensus, That’ll Be 13 For 14 Quarters Since IPO

Well, it’s no Salesforce.com ( CRM ) in size, but investors are turning their attention to hot little rival Workday ( WDAY ), which reports earnings after the close Monday. The maker of cloud-based HR and financial software likely will show continued fast growth — while likely staying in the red as it spends to grow. For its fiscal Q4 2016 ended Jan. 31 , Workday guided to revenue of $317 million to $320 million, up 40% to 41% from the year-earlier quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had modeled $320.3 million when Workday issued its Q3 results three months ago, but since then the consensus has slipped to $319.6 million. Workday didn’t forecast earnings, but analysts expect an adjusted loss per share of 4 cents vs. a 6-cent loss in the year-earlier quarter. Like many stocks, Workday has been scraping bottom lately, hitting a 39-month low on Feb. 9 at 47.32. Workday stock fell 16% on Feb. 5, but it wasn’t alone. That was the day Tableau Software ( DATA ) tanked 49.5% after releasing slower growth guidance for 2016, sending most software stocks down with it. Since then, Workday stock has enjoyed two good weeks, up 1% in early trading in the stock market today , near 60 but still down 25% for the year. Workday stock rose 3.2% Thursday, with enterprise software stocks helped by Salesforce.com’s late-Wednesday earnings beat and better-than-expected guidance. Salesforce.com stock rose 11% Thursday but was down a fraction early Friday. Noting that Workday “has beaten consensus revenue and EPS estimates in 12 of the 13 quarters it has been public,” D.A. Davidson analyst Jack Andrews is bullish. “We expect (Q4)  revenue to grow 41.9% …  to $321.2 million, above consensus …  and above the high end of the (Workday-provided) guidance range. By segment, we are projecting 44.6% growth in subscription services to $263 million (81.9% of total revenue) and 31.0% growth in professional services to $58.2 million,” he said in a research report. He expects a 3-cent per-share loss minus items, a penny better than consensus. “One interesting note is that we believe Oracle ( ORCL ) has pulled back a bit on its promotional program on SaaS (Software as a Service) and aims to offer future promotions to customers tactically, rather than automatically,” Andrews wrote. Davidson maintains a buy rating on Oracle stock.  It also has a buy rating on Workday stock, with a 99 price target. Oracle stock rose 1.8% Thursday, but was flat early Friday. Investment banker R.W. Baird on Thursday lowered its price target on Workday to 70 from 85, but it rates the stock outperform. “Workday’s share price has also been significantly reduced along with other high-valuation software stocks during the recent correction,” wrote Baird analyst Steven Ashley. In Workday’s Q3 earnings conference call with analysts, CFO Mark Peek said an adjusted operating profit likely wouldn’t happen until Q2 this year.

More Americans Support Feds In Apple-FBI Encryption Fight

Americans following the smartphone encryption fight between Apple ( AAPL ) and the FBI lean toward supporting the feds, according to a new IBD/TIPP poll. Of the 644 survey respondents who said they have been following the story, the largest percentage (49%) says Apple should help the FBI unlock the iPhone at the center of the San Bernardino shooting case. On the flipside, 37% of respondents said Apple should not help unlock the phone. The rest were not sure or declined to answer. On Thursday, Apple asked a federal judge to reverse her order compelling the company to work with the FBI to hack a password-protected iPhone used by one of the shooters in the San Bernardino, Calif., terrorist attack. In a court filing, Apple said the order “creates an unprecedented burden on Apple and violates Apple’s First Amendment rights against compelled speech.” On Feb. 16, U.S. Magistrate Sheri Pym ordered Apple to provide “reasonable technical assistance” to the FBI to unlock an iPhone belonging to Syed Farook, one of the killers in the San Bernardino shootings. The order calls for Apple to create software that can get around or disable the security option that erases data from an iPhone after 10 unsuccessful attempts to unlock it. Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik, shot and killed 14 people on Dec. 2. The radicalized Muslim couple, described in press reports as supporters of terror group ISIS, later died in a gun battle with police. For the IBD/TIPP poll, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted phone interviews with 900 U.S. adults from Feb. 19 through Feb. 24. The respondents familiar with the Apple-FBI court case were asked: “In your opinion, should Apple unlock the San Bernardino shooter’s smartphone for the FBI’s investigation of the case, or should it not unlock the phone since such an action would set a precedent that could be misused in the future?” The more educated the respondent, the more likely they were to be against the government’s efforts to break the iPhone security. Among high school-educated respondents, 55% supported the FBI’s case. That compares with 46% for college graduates, TechnoMetrica said. Equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats (53%) supported the FBI’s efforts to force Apple to hack the iPhone. Independents were split, with 44% siding with Apple and 43% siding with the FBI, the IBD/TIPP poll found. Most Women Say Apple Should Unlock Phone Men were more evenly divided, with 46% in favor of unlocking the phone vs. 43% against, the poll showed. However, the majority of women surveyed (51%) said they thought Apple should help unlock the phone, with 31% saying Apple shouldn’t. “If we were living during a more peaceful time, and the persistent threat of terrorism was not a major concern in today’s world, Americans might have appreciated Apple’s position regarding the protection of privacy,” TechnoMetrica President Raghavan Mayur told IBD. “However, especially after the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, the public exhibits a heightened sensitivity to the threat of terrorism, and accordingly, assigns great importance to protecting national security.” On Wednesday, an online poll by Reuters/Ipsos found that 46% of respondents agree with Apple’s position in the case, 35% disagree, and the rest did not know. On Tuesday, a poll by the Pew Research Center found Americans slightly in favor of the government’s position. Some 51% of respondents said Apple should unlock the iPhone to assist the FBI investigation. But 38% said Apple should not unlock the phone to ensure the security of its other users’ information. The remaining 11% didn’t have an opinion. Tech policy blog Techdirt on Thursday criticized both the Reuters/Ipsos and Pew surveys, saying their questions were wrong, misleading or simply leading.