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‘Bedrock’ Utility Market To Double U.S. Solar Installations In 2016

U.S. solar installations will more than double in 2016, driven by the “bedrock” utility market that could account for three-quarters of all new capacity, according to a recent trade study. Solar installers — like First Solar ( FSLR ), SunPower ( SPWR ), SolarCity ( SCTY ) and Sunrun ( RUN ) — will add 16 gigawatts in 2016, bringing cumulative installations up to 41.6 GW and growing by a record 120% year over year, GTM Research forecasts. Cumulative installations already have increased 1,180% since 2010, when the U.S. had 2 GW in total capacity. In 2015, installers added 7.26 GW, up 16%, driven by 66% growth in the residential market. Capacity touched 25.6 GW. Between 2016 and 2020, GTM sees the U.S. solar market adding 24 GW, reaching 97 cumulative installations by 2020. In 2018, GTM expects all segments to grow on a year-over-year basis, and by 2021, more than half of all states will be markets with annual installation above 100 megawatts. Cumulative installations are expected to top 100 GW. ITC Extension Pushes Solar The push was likely driven by the extension of the Investment Tax Credit on solar which, until late December, was poised to expire for residential installations at the end of 2016. Utilities would have seen the subsidy step down from 30% to 10%. GTM credited North Carolina developers for a Q4 boom in the solar market. In 2015, North Carolina became the second state outside California to add more than 1 GW of utility photovoltaic (PV) installations on an annual basis. In 2015, the utility market accounted for 57% of installed capacity. But installation growth lagged the residential market, up 6% year over year to 4 GW. The residential market added 2.1 GW, up 66% vs. 2014. The residential market has grown at 50%-plus rates for four consecutive years. The non-residential market was flat for the third consecutive year in 2015. But in 2016, the utility market will grow by triple digits, GTM predicts. “Looking ahead to the rest of 2016, we anticipate another banner year for U.S. solar, which will benefit from gigawatts of utility (photovoltaic) that rushed through the early stages of development to ensure interconnection in 2016,” GTM wrote in the report. Utility To Outgrow Residential Utility solar is becoming more economical, with costs now ranging between $35 per megawatt-hour to $60/MWh. Regions in Texas and the Southwest are retiring aging coal fleets and replacing them with utility solar and natural gas, GTM wrote. In 2015, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey and North Carolina all surpassed 1 GW in cumulative solar capacity. But new net-metering regulations that Nevada’s Public Utilities Commission voted in late last year will force that state from its position as the No. 1 PV market to No. 31 in 2016. IBD’s Energy-Solar industry group, led by First Solar and SunPower, hit a nearly three-year low last month. It ranks No. 50 our of 197 groups tracked. Nevada might not be alone, GTM wrote. Although California passed net-metering 2.0, which the solar market has embraced, other states could go the Nevada route. This year, Nevada upheld net-metering reform that doesn’t grandfather existing solar customers under the old rate scheme. Net metering refers to the system that lets rooftop solar customers get credits for any excess energy they send back to the grid, but those credits are now far less generous in Nevada. “While a growing number of state markets are picking up steam, an even larger number of states are considering reforms to net-metering rules that threaten the market’s ability to maintain a hockey-stick growth trajectory,” GTM wrote. Meanwhile, component pricing for residential is expected to stagnate, while utility sees a continued plunge. Overall system pricing fell by 17% in 2015. Residential hardware costs fell 16% in Q4, but soft costs (including customer acquisition costs) jumped by 7%. The non-residential market saw 15% and 6% declines in hardware and soft costs, respectively. Utility soft costs declined by 37% and 23% in fixed-tilt and tracking projects, respectively, said GTM.

Apple Tells iPhone Audio Plug To ‘Hit The Road, Jack’

New leaked images purporting to show an iPhone 7 case appear to confirm the rumor that Apple ( AAPL ) will ditch the traditional audio jack on its next smartphone. Apple reportedly wants to get rid of the audio jack to make its next iPhone slimmer, and because the port is an antiquated standard. The Cupertino, Calif.-based company will encourage iPhone users to switch to Bluetooth wireless headphones or headphones that plug into Apple’s proprietary, multifunction Lightning connector. Reports of Apple eliminating the headphone jack on the iPhone 7 first surfaced in December . Apple’s decision to remove the 3.5-millimeter audio jack could reduce the thickness of the iPhone 7 by more than 1 millimeter compared with the iPhone 6S. The iPhone 6S is 7.1 millimeters thin and the 6S Plus is 7.3 millimeters thin. Apple reportedly also will eliminate the home button from the front of the iPhone 7 as well. The pressure-sensitive touchscreen will take over its functions. The latest iPhone 7 images come via self described “serial tech leaker” Steve Hemmerstoffer . Forbes on Wednesday described the headphone-jack-free iPhone 7 as “ Apple’s worst-kept secret .” The iPhone 7 is likely to be released in September, the traditional time frame for new flagship iPhone models. Apple has a product-release event slated for March 21, where it likely will unveil a new 5S replacement phone, to be called the iPhone SE, as well as a new iPad and possibly an Apple Watch update. Image provided by Shutterstock .

Square Plunges As Slower Merchant Growth Shades Outlook

Square ( SQ ) stock plunged on heavy volume Thursday despite better-than-expected Q4 sales, as analysts worried about slowing growth in its number of merchant customers, among other challenges. Square stock was down 7.5% in early afternoon trading  on the stock market today , near 11. Shares rose after hours Wednesday, following the company’s release of its Q4 earnings to a  generally positive reaction  from Wall Street, even though its loss widened. Square makes digital cash registers often affixed to smartphones or tablets and processes payments on those registers, which are popular among small and midsize businesses. The company also offers marketing and financial services to those clients. Rivals include payments leader PayPal ( PYPL ). The fourth-quarter results presented some issues, Wedbush analyst Gil Luria told IBD. While “the results themselves were good” and the “outlook for the year was positive,” there were a few things investors should watch for, Luria said. “One, there was the lack of merchant growth,” Luria said. On the company’s earnings conference call, CFO Sarah Friar said the company was growing by 100,000 merchants a quarter. But Luria says that’s a historical statement. “Customer growth (now) is less than 100,000 a quarter,” Luria said, adding that the company has been touting that it has “over 2 million merchants” for more than six months. In addition, Luria cautions that Square Capital — the firm’s small-business cash advance operation — is growing in an uncontrolled way, as the company is trying to lend to as many of its clients as possible. “Let’s not forget what they are,” Luria said. “It’s a subprime, small-business loan broker. You can grow quickly, but it’s not always a good thing.” Luria says Square Capital is similar in many ways to Ameriquest Mortgage, which was a major U.S. subprime lender until its 2007 closure amid turbulence in the housing market. Subprime mortgages were a big factor in that meltdown. “Square is generating loans to people who cannot otherwise borrow money,” Luria said. Since its November IPO, Square stock has been volatile. It priced at 9, peaked its first day at 14.78, and hit its all-time low of 8.06 a month ago. Square has a weak IBD Composite Rating of 43, where 99 is the highest. Luria says that one reason for the volatility is that only 10% of Square shares are available for trading. The rest are held by insiders and early venture capital investors. The lockup period for the VCs and many insiders expires May 17, which could pressure the stock. Visa ( V ) is among those that have  a sizeable investment in Square.