Netflix Original Shows To Keep Subscribers In Place After Price Hike
Netflix ’s ( NFLX ) U.S. streaming business should be able to weather an upcoming price increase thanks to the Internet TV service’s increasingly popular original shows, investment bank Cowen said Tuesday. About 36% of Netflix’s U.S. streaming subscribers, or roughly 16 million customers, will see their standard plan increase by $2 to $9.99 a month in May, Cowen said. Netflix enacted the first of two price hikes in May 2014 but gave existing customers a grace period. Cowen analyst John Blackledge predicted that Netflix’s U.S. customer churn will rise “only slightly” in the second quarter, based on the results of a recent survey. The survey showed a rising amount of time spent on Netflix and the growing importance of original shows. Cowen is forecasting Netflix to add 630,000 net new U.S. subscribers in Q2, down 30% from the number added in Q2 2015 but above analyst consensus estimates of 500,000 to 600,000. Given seasonal weakness and the price increase, there is some concern that Netflix could guide to a U.S. net subscriber loss or only a modest gain in Q2, Blackledge said in a report. But the Cowen survey data showed strong support for Netflix. Netflix is scheduled to report Q1 earnings and give Q2 guidance after the market close on April 18. Netflix Viewers Average 10 Hours Of Video Monthly Cowen surveyed 2,500 U.S. adults Feb. 26 through March 8 for its latest Netflix poll. Of those surveyed, 49% were paying Netflix subscribers, 11% were former subscribers, 29% have never been subscribers, 9% were users that had access to the service but were not paying subscribers, and 2% were on a free trial. U.S. Netflix subscribers say that they view about 10 hours of video on the service per month on average vs. about 8 hours per month in a December 2014 survey, Cowen said. Some 58% of subscribers say that they pay for Netflix because of its original shows. That’s up from 37% in December 2014. Blackledge maintained his outperform rating on Netflix stock with a price target of 155. Netflix was up 1%, near 105, in afternoon trading on the stock market today . Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, on the other hand, says that Netflix could see a significant uptick in subscriber churn when the price hikes kick in. He estimates that more than 30 million U.S. Netflix subscribers are facing a price hike this year. Amazon.com ’s ( AMZN ) Prime streaming video service could benefit from the Netflix churn, he said in a research report Monday. Netflix hopes to minimize the impact of the price hikes by launching new seasons of its most popular exclusive shows. “Netflix countered the impact of higher pricing by releasing two high-profile originals (‘House of Cards’ and ‘Daredevil’) in March and by timing the release of the next season for ‘Orange Is the New Black’ (its most watched show, according to Survata) for June 17,” Pachter said. “It appears the company hopes to limit churn by timing heavily viewed releases at quarter end.” Pachter rates Netflix stock as underperform with a price target of 45. Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein on Monday reiterated his outperform rating on Netflix stock and his price target of 140. “We are modestly lowering our domestic streaming subscriber net adds to reflect the expiration of price grandfathering, but maintaining our positive long-term view on domestic pricing power/margins and international subscriber growth,” he said in a report. Previously grandfathered subscribers will see price increases in May and October. Subscribers who joined prior to May 2014 will see their monthly bill increase by $2 ($7.99 to $9.99) next month. Subscribers who joined between May 2014 and October 2015 will see a $1 increase ($8.99 to $9.99) in October. Netflix ended 2015 with 74.76 million streaming subscribers, of which 44.74 million are in the U.S. RELATED: Netflix Investors Too Focused On U.S., Missing Global Opportunity