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How Much Did iPhone Sales Fall In Apple’s March Quarter?

Apple ( AAPL ) investors are bracing for bad news in the company’s fiscal second-quarter report due out after the market close Tuesday. Apple executives have already signaled that iPhone unit sales will fall on a year-over-year basis for the first time ever in Q2. The big money questions are: How much will iPhone sales fall and how will the product fare ahead of the fall launch of the iPhone 7? Wall Street analysts on average expect Apple to report fiscal Q2 iPhone sales of about 50 million units. That compares with 61.17 million units in the same quarter last year. “Given that Apple is nearing the end of the iPhone 6-series cycle and facing difficult iPhone comparisons, we are modeling a year-over-year decline in sales, profits and iPhone units in Q2,” Drexel Hamilton analyst Brian White said in a research note Monday. He remains positive on the stock because of the potential for upgrades around the iPhone 7 as well as an enhanced capital return program for shareholders expected to be announced Tuesday. White rates Apple stock a buy, with a price target of 200. Apple shares fell 0.7% to 104.35 on the stock market today , closing just above its 50-day moving average. White is modeling for Apple to sell 48.05 million iPhones in Q2, down 21%. He predicts that Apple will sell 39.05 million iPhones in fiscal Q3 and 42.05 million in fiscal Q4, down 18% and 12%, respectively. RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani on Sunday reiterated his outperform rating on Apple stock with a price target of 130. He predicts that Apple sold 48.3 million iPhones in the March quarter. Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri on Sunday maintained his outperform rating on Apple stock with a price target of 135. Arcuri is modeling for Apple to sell 47 million iPhones in fiscal Q2. He is looking for Apple to sell 44.5 million units in Q3 and 50.5 million units in Q4, down 6% and up 5%, respectively. BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long estimates that Apple sold 52 million iPhones in the March quarter, down 15%. For the June quarter, he sees 44 million iPhone sales, down 7%. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Apple to earn $2 a share on sales of $51.97 billion in the March quarter. On a year-over-year basis, earnings per share are forecast to fall 14% with sales down 10%. It would mark the company’s first quarterly decline in EPS in nearly three years and first drop in sales since 2003. For the current quarter, Wall Street is modeling Apple to earn $1.76 a share, down 5%, on sales of $47.32 billion, also down 5%. Image provided by Shutterstock . RELATED: Apple Q2 Earnings To Clash With New Cash Return Plan

T-Mobile Stock Reverses Despite Q1 Hailed As ‘Blowout’

T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) raised 2016 subscriber and cash-flow guidance and reported Q1 revenue that topped views, but shares in the Uncarrier-branded wireless service provider quickly reversed. T-Mobile said it earned 10 cents per share in the March quarter, excluding the after-tax impact of a spectrum sale, in line with consensus estimates. T-Mobile reported a 9-cent per share loss in the year earlier period. Revenue rose 11% to 8.6 billion vs. expectations of $8.4 billion in sales. T-Mobile, controlled by Deutsche Telekom ( DTEGY ), has been gaining subscriber and revenue market share vs. Verizon Communications ( VZ ), AT&T ( T )  and Sprint ( S ) for over two years. T-Mobile’s Binge-on free video plan and other promotions in Q1 were expected to keep its momentum going. T-Mobile fell 4.1% to 39.50 near the market close in the stock market today  after rising 2.5% early to 42.20, a seven-month high and near the the 8 1/2-year high of 43.43 set on Sept. 21. T-Mobile rose 2.4% on Monday. IBD’s Take: Get dialed in on T-Mobile US stock, and how it stacks up vs. its wireless rivals with IBD Stock Checkup One overhang on T-Mobile stock has been concern that mobile phone financing plans support lower-credit quality customers  and that a weakening economy would add company debt. Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson, says worries could be overblown. “T-Mobile’s blowout first-quarter results not only include falling bad debt, but also near record-low post-paid customer turnover,” said Moffett in a report. T-Mobile said it added 2.2 million subscribers in Q1, up from 1.8 million in the year earlier period. Prepaid subscriber additions jumped to 807,000 from 73,000. T-Mobile added  877,000 postpaid phone lines vs. 748,000 a year earlier. “Bad debt declined sequentially, highlighting efforts to improve credit policies,” said Mike McCormack, analyst at Jefferies, in a report. Verizon on April 21 reported Q1 results and said it lost 8,000 postpaid phone subscribers. AT&T reports Q1 earnings after the market close today. Verizon and AT&T shares fell fractionally Tuesdsay afternoon. Bellevue, Wash.-based T-Mobile raised its 2016 postpaid phone subscriber forecast to 3.4 million at its midpoint of guidance, up from its earlier estimate of 2.9 million. “The net add guidance raise was not all too surprising, since the Street was already projecting 3.6 million for 2016,” said Jennifer Fritzsche, an analyst at Wells Fargo in a report. T-Mobile expects adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization)  to be in the range of $9.7 to $10.2 billion, up from the previous guidance of $9.1 to $9.7 billion.

Baidu Set To Report Q1 Amid ‘Low Expectations’ For Margin Growth

Baidu ( BIDU ) reports Q1 earnings after the close on Thursday, with analysts expecting China’s search leader to maintain its dominant position in mobile ads, retaining its share of ad budget allocations from large advertisers. “Regarding profitability, we see several potential upside catalysts that could positively impact Baidu’s shares in the near to medium term,” wrote ITG Research analyst Henry Guo in a research note Tuesday. Baidu stock was up a fraction in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 188.50. Baidu stock has gained 88% since touching 100 last August, its lowest point since July 2013. But Baidu stock is down 11% in the past 12 months. Citing proprietary data, Guo said Baidu’s mobile ecosystem — its mobile search, mobile app marketplace, mobile video, and mobile browser — has stayed dominant, which Guo said “helps the company control several of the most-important mobile Internet user traffic gateways, boding well for future monetization.” Data from ITG Research indicates “that Baidu’s Mobile Search app dominates the mobile search market with more than 23% installation penetration among Chinese mobile users, well ahead of its key competitors Sogou Search (1.7%) and Qihoo 360 Technology ( QIHO ) Search (0.2%),” wrote Guo. Baidu’s rivals in mobile search include e-commerce giant Alibaba Group ( BABA ) and its No. 2 Shenma search unit. In overall search in China, Baidu vies with No. 2 Qihoo 360 Technology, which has struggled to shift to mobile. Sohu ( SOHU ) search engine Sogou is No. 3. Tencent Holdings ( TCEHY ), the third of the Baidu-Alibaba-Tencent (BAT) Chinese Internet giants, owns a big stake in Sohu’s Sogou. Baidu’s fast-growing video wing, Qiyi, surpassed Alibaba-owned Youku Tudou’s user base in early 2015, Guo said. In March 2016, Qiyi had about 20% penetration among Chinese mobile Internet users, compared to Youku Tudou’s 11.5% and Tencent Video’s 10.4%, said Guo. Baidu announced last month that the company has received a nonbinding proposal from two Baidu executives to acquire Qiyi for $2.8 billion. Already one of China’s largest online video streaming services, Qiyi is looking to become a bigger force in the country’s video-streaming and moviemaking fields, a nearly $6 billion market that also includes Baidu rivals Alibaba, Tencent and Sohu.com. Last year, Netflix ( NFLX ) said it wants to begin operating in China, but the streaming media company has given no timetable. Wall Street has “low expectations” for Baidu’s 2016 margin improvement, said Guo. Baidu’s profit margins will continue to face pressure from (1) higher traffic acquisition costs (TAC) due to increasing mobile search contribution, (2) iQiyi content cost, and (3) O2O (online-to-offline) investments, he said. TAC refers to what Baidu must pay to other sites to carry its ads. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Baidu to see Q1 revenue of RMB 15.83 billion ($2.4 billion), up 24% year over year. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are modeling EPS ex items to fall 11% year over year to 5.96 RMB (92 cents). FactSet is expecting revenue of $2.44 billion, up 24%. FactSet is expecting Baidu to report EPS ex items of 1.03, down 11.9%.