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Winning ETF Strategies For Q2

After the upheaval in the first quarter, the broader market is still far from even close to a bear market. The S&P 500 may be just 0.9% up from the year-to-date look (as of April 12, 2016), but the decline in the key U.S. index is merely 4% from the previous high . This points to a far better situation than a 10% decline from the previous high which defines a correction or a 20% fall from the previous high that makes it a bear market. However, this does not ensure a smooth road ahead. With the broader market blowing hot and cold every now and then, downside risks prevail in the ongoing second quarter. Agreed, factors driving the market now – especially oil price stabilization and the drop in the dollar – are somewhat favorable, but the near-term outlook of the broader market may turn glum given the expected downbeat earnings for Q1. After all, there are always panicky investors in the market who may just start dumping stocks following the underperformance in Q1 earnings. And if it turns out to be a herd investing pattern, it could ruin market returns despite a healing earnings trend from the second quarter itself. So, what should we do? Since it is difficult to predict whether the market will move up or go down from this point in Q2, it is better to shield yourself from all volatility. Thus, for investors, we shall detail the possible asset class movements in Q2 and the likely ETF bets. Dividend Exposure As far as global market investing is concerned, it’s better to stay diversified. However, since negative rates are prevailing in many developed economies, the drive for dividend will be higher. So, investors can tap products like First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FGD ), which yields about 5.16% annually or the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (NYSEARCA: IXUS ) that offers about 2.85% in annual dividend yield. The case is similar back home. Thanks to the delay in further Fed rate hike, long-term yields are hovering at lower levels, making dividend ETFs popular at present. The WisdomTree Equity Income ETF (NYSEARCA: DHS ) and the iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: HDV ) could be best suited for this play. Focus on Quality or Value in the U.S. Cautious investors may also hunt for dividends in high-quality value stocks rather than running after high-yielding products. In this vein, investors can buy the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEARCA: VIG ), which considers those companies that have a record of increasing dividends over time, or the PowerShares S&P 500 High Quality Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: SPHQ ), which provides exposure to the constituents of the S&P 500 index with long-term growth and stability of a company’s earnings and dividends. Yet another choice for this category is the PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Value Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PWV ). Which Capitalization to Bet on in the U.S.? The U.S. economy is making strides, with improving trends seen in the manufacturing, housing and labor markets. But the dollar is sagging on a dovish Fed. This makes a winning combination for mid-cap ETFs, as this spectrum bears the traits of both large and small caps. It has moderate international exposure, which will remain unharmed in a weaker dollar environment. However, a value quotient is desirable even in this area. Thus, we pick two mid-cap value ETFs for investors, namely the Guggenheim S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF (NYSEARCA: RFV ) and the PowerShares Fundamental Pure Mid Value Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PXMV ). Both carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Where Will the Bond Markets Go? Bond ETFs had a stupendous run in Q1 and are likely to be loved by investors this quarter too. However, investors can tap investment-grade corporate bond ETFs this time around, rather than sticking to the safe Treasury bond ETFs. The SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: LWC ), yielding about 4.05% annually, can be considered for this purpose. Should You Toss Out Currency Hedging from International Investing? Since the Fed vowed to take it easy with the policy tightening stance and hinted at just two rate hikes this year, the U.S. dollar is likely to be muted in the rest of Q2. So, currency-hedged ETF investing may not be a very popular concept this quarter. If global turmoil persists, the safe-haven currency, the Japanese yen, is likely to be stronger, and thus, the currency-hedging technique will not be that fruitful. Investors can thus take a look at the Buy-rated iShares MSCI Japan Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: JPMV ) and the SPDR MSCI Japan Quality Mix ETF (NYSEARCA: QJPN ). These funds will help you navigate market volatility. The IQ 50 Percent Hedged FTSE Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: HFXJ ), with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), is another option to deal with the currency translation risk. As far as the European market is concerned, investors can ride on massive policy easing by investing in the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DFE ). Original Post

Will China Pull Copper ETFs Down?

Last week, copper prices witnessed the biggest weekly decline since January on oversupply concerns in China and sluggish demand growth. After a stressful stretch in 2015 due to softness in China’s manufacturing sector, global growth worries, a stronger U.S. dollar and surplus supplies, the red metal had shown a recovery in 2016. But the trend took a U-turn once concerns related to oversupply in China surfaced. While there are many factors influencing the price of copper, events in China are major contributors, as the country is the world’s biggest consumer of this industrial metal, making up roughly 40% of global copper demand. However, per the latest LME data, China’s shipments to Singapore jumped 4,800 tonnes, boosting exports and leading to worries about domestic oversupply in China. As per state-backed research firm Antaike , China could be holding more than 1 million tonnes of refined copper stocks at present, including bonded stocks, exchange stocks and metal held by traders and smelters. Historically, the strongest period of demand for copper from China is in the second quarter, as production of cables and wires is the highest during this period. However, sectors that import copper, including construction and manufacturing, have been hit hard. Thus, if China resorts to exporting copper instead of importing, it could send a major shockwave to red metal prices across the globe. Meanwhile, most of the other developed and developing economies are also experiencing sluggish growth, which in turn, is weighing on the global demand for copper and dampening its appeal. Oversupply concerns in China could intensify the global supply glut and drive copper prices further down. This brings our attention to copper ETFs – the iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: JJC ), the United States Copper Index ETF (NYSEARCA: CPER ) and the iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN (NYSEARCA: CUPM ). These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating (see all the Industrial Metals ETFs here ). iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN The ETN tracks the Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return, which seeks to deliver returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on copper. The index currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity of copper (currently, the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX). The product charges investors 75 bps a year in fees and has a lower level of AUM of $29.6 million. It trades in paltry volume of about 26,000 shares a day, on average. The ETN shed nearly 4.4% in the last week (as of April 8, 2016). United States Copper Index ETF The fund seeks to track the performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return, plus interest income from CPER’s holdings. The index provides investors with exposure to a portfolio of copper futures contracts. The product has amassed $2.8 million in its asset base, while it sees paltry volume of about 2,000 shares a day. Its expense ratio came in at 0.65%. The ETF has lost 3.8% in the last week. iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN This note seeks to match the performance of the Barclays Copper Pure Beta Total Return Index. This can roll into one of a number of futures contracts with varying expiration dates, as selected, using the Barclays Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology, lowering the effect of contango. The note has amassed $1.8 million in its asset base and trades in a meager volume of about 250 shares a day. The expense ratio came in at 0.75%. CUPM is gained 0.5% in the last week. Original Post

How To Trade In Gold ETFs After Robust 30-Year Rally?

Thanks to global growth concerns, reduced expectations for rate hike, geopolitical tensions and bearishness in the stock market, gold posted the biggest first-quarter gain in three decades. In addition, the adoption of negative interest rates by most central banks such as Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and Europe boosted the demand for gold bullion and pushed the prices higher. Investors should note that most of the gains came in the first six weeks of the year and thereafter the momentum of increase slowed down. What’s In Store? The Fed signaled that interest rates in U.S. would stay low for some time and dialed back its projection from four lift-offs to two hikes in its recent meeting. This is weighing on the dollar and propelling the price of gold. The release of minutes last week showed that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in April, signaling that weak global growth could hurt the ongoing recovery in the U.S. economy. Further, continued rise in the Japanese currency dampened investors’ faith in central banks’ ability to boost growth across the globe. Further, an erratic market showed up again as volatility in oil price and weak corporate earnings in the U.S. raised demand for the yellow metal as a store of value and hedge against market turmoil ahead of the Q1 earnings season. However, the recent slew of encouraging data especially on the manufacturing activity and job growth fronts reflect strength in the U.S. economy and perked-up risk-on sentiment. As a result, the strongest Q1 rally of the yellow metal seems to be fading given that gold was up just 1.3% in the first few trading sessions of April. Considering the robust gains in the first quarter, gold is still off about 35% from its 2011 all-time high of $1,900 per ounce (read: ETFs to Gain or Lose After Strong Jobs Report ). To sum up, the stability in the financial market and an improving U.S. economy could bolster the case for rate hike again and may dull the appeal for the safe haven asset in the coming months. Given the volatile environment for gold investment, investors should place their bet on gold ETFs cautiously or could take advantage of the quick turn in sentiment with the help of leveraged or inverse ETFs. Gold ETFs These ETFs are directly linked to the spot gold price or futures and are worth watching in the coming months. These have a favorable Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ): This is the largest and most popular ETF in the gold space with AUM of $32.6 billion and average daily volume of around 8.8 million shares. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, and kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. Expense ratio comes in at 0.40%. The fund has added 0.6% so far this month. iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: IAU ) : This ETF offers exposure to the day-to-day movement of the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical gold under the custody of JP Morgan Chase Bank in London. It has AUM of $7.5 billion and trades in solid volume of more than 8 million shares a day on average. The ETF charges 25 bps in annual fees and has gained 0.7% this month (read: Ride on Gold Rally with Best ETFs and Stocks of 2016 ). Van Eck Merk Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: OUNZ ): This product seeks to provide investors with a convenient and cost-efficient way to buy and hold gold through an exchange-traded product with the option to take physical delivery of gold when desired. It charges 40 bps in fees per year but is unpopular and an illiquid option with AUM of $99.5 million and average daily volume of 42,000 shares. OUNZ is up 0.7% this month. Leveraged Gold ETFs Investors who are bullish on gold right now may consider a near-term long on the precious metal with the following ETFs depending on their risk appetite. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: UGL ): This fund seeks to deliver twice (2x or 200%) the return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars. It charges 95 bps in fees a year and has amassed $89.3 million in its asset base. Volume is light at under 40,000 shares per day. The ETF has gained 0.86% in the first few trading sessions of April. PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSEARCA: DGP ): This ETN seeks to deliver twice the return of the daily performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return, charging 75 bps in fees per year. It has accumulated $131 million in its asset base so far and trades in an average daily volume of 69,000 shares. The ETN is relatively flat so far this month. VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN (NASDAQ: UGLD ): This product provides three times (3x or 300%) exposure to the daily performance of the S&P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return plus returns from U.S. T-bills net of fees and expenses. The ETN has been able to manage an asset base of $64.6 million while charging a higher fee of 1.35% annually. However, the note trades in solid volume of over 546,000 shares a day on average and has returned 2% this month. Inverse Gold ETFs Any encouraging data on the economy could provide investors’ a near-term short opportunity on the bullion according to their risk appetite. DB Gold Short ETN (NYSEARCA: DGZ ): This ETN offers inverse (opposite) exposure to the performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return. It has managed assets of $23.7 million so far this year and trades in a solid volume of 146,000 shares a day on average. It charges 0.75% in annual fees and has lost about 0.7% so far in April. ProShares Ultra Short Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: GLL ) : This fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars, charging 95 bps in fees a year. It has $75.4 million in AUM and trades in lower average daily volume of 25,000 shares. The ETF has shed about 2% so far this month. VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (NASDAQ: DGLD ): This product provides three times inverse exposure to the daily performance of the S&P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return. It has been able to manage an asset base of $17.4 million while charging investors a higher fee of 1.35% annually. The note trades in a light average daily volume of 43,000 shares and is down 2.1% so far this month. Link to the original post on Zacks.com