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3 Emerging Market ETFs With Q4 Gains

Wrong were those investors who thought emerging markets would perform miserably in the fourth quarter due to the looming Fed tightening. The gradual waning of cheap dollar inflows post lift-off, the resultant rise in the greenback, sluggish emerging currencies, high inflation issues, political disorder and the commodity market rout were deemed to dull the appeal of emerging markets. The theory wasn’t completely baseless. The broader emerging market ETF iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA: EEM ) has lost 17% so far this year and over 3.3% so far this quarter (as of December 18, 2015). But not all emerging market equities and the related ETFs have been vulnerable. At least, Q4 performance of a few emerging market ETFs has been noteworthy. Investors should note that the S&P 500-based SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) has added over 1.8% so far this quarter (as of December 18, 2015) and the world ETF iShares MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) Index (ACWI ) is up 0.3%. A couple of emerging market ETFs have managed to climb and two funds even impressed with their double-digit returns in the quarter-to-date period (as of December 18, 2015). Interestingly, these top performers are spread across various sectors or countries and could be better plays in the current market. This suggests that there have been winners in every corner of the space, even amid a sluggish overall trend. Below, we highlight three top-performing emerging market ETFs in the quarter-to-date frame. Emerging Markets Internet & E-Commerce ETF (NYSEARCA: EMQQ ) – Up 23.3% The Internet and e-commerce industry is developing fast with the increased use of social networking sites and online trading as well as the growing adoption of smartphones and other mobile Internet devices. So, this product has more to do with technological expansion in the emerging markets rather than reflecting the slowing potential of those economies. In fact, EMQQ can succeed on the back of a fast-expanding middle-class population of emerging nations. This $12-million ETF considers companies from Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. Country-wise, China takes the highest allocation in the fund. Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ), Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU ) and Baozun (NASDAQ: BZUN ) are the top three holdings of the fund. EMQQ charges 86 bps in fees and is up 23.5% so far in the fourth quarter (as of December 18, 2015). First Trust ISE Chindia ETF ( FNI ) This fund follows the ISE Chindia Index, which measures the performance of the liquid firms domiciled either in China or in India. Notably, even after the upheaval in August, Chinese stocks are among the top and stellar performing securities in the emerging market pack. As far as India is concerned, it is one of the most stable emerging markets at the current level in terms of economic growth and corporate profitability. It has accumulated nearly $230 million in its asset base. The product puts nearly 50% of its assets in the top 10 holdings, with JD.com (NASDAQ: JD ), Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM ) and NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES ) being the top three firms. From a sector look, more than 35% of the assets are allocated to information technology while about one-third goes to consumer discretionary. FNI charges 60 bps in fees per year from investors and has returned 12.63% so far in the quarter. The product looks to track 50 emerging market-based depositary receipts. The fund invests about 45% of assets in China while Taiwan, Brazil and India get the next three positions with 14%, 12.5% and 10.4% weight, respectively. The fund charges 30 bps in fees. Sector-wise, the fund is heavy on information technology (38.68%) while telecom (16.75%), financials (14.7%) and energy (10.2%) get double-digit exposures. Alibaba (11.5%) and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM ) (10.6%) are the top two stocks of the fund. ADRE is up 5.6% in the quarter-to-date frame and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook. Original

U.S. Stocks In 2016? Keep An Eye On The Global Economy

You may not want to risk capital in overseas stocks until foreign countries and regions begin to respond to stimulus via economic expansion. Right now, most are mired in stagnation, recession or depression. Absent a desirable revival abroad, 2016 could be tough sledding for the U.S. economy and the heralded S&P 500. During the previous bull market (10/02-10/07), financial media fawned over the critical importance of diversifying one’s equity exposure across the globe. And why not? Performance for foreign exchange-traded trackers like iShares MSCI EAFE (NYSEARCA: EFA ) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA: EEM ) far surpassed anything the S&P 500 could muster up; developed international markets doubled U.S. capital appreciation while emerging economies catapulted 350%! Indeed, when I spoke at conferences 10 years ago, attendees rarely inquired about companies listed on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). They wanted to know if they should add a materials exporting giant like iShares South Africa (NYSEARCA: EZA ) to their portfolios or whether or not iShares Small Cap Brazil (NYSEARCA: BRF ) would be a sensible way to tap consumer purchasing power in Latin America. Accessing overseas markets dominated speaker presentations as well as listener curiosity. In 2000, the financial planning community typically rallied around a 20% equity allocation to foreign stock. By 2007, the 20% recommendation jumped to 50%. The reason? Well-diversified investors were supposed to account for the world’s market capitalization, where one-half of the world’s market cap belonged to non-U.S. securities. So what happened to the notion of a globally diversified portfolio? Worldly investor perspectives? Could it be that, since the eurozone crisis in 2011, U.S. stocks have crushed foreign equities? Maybe it is easier for CNBC and Bloomberg to praise U.S. stock price gains while ignoring bearish price depreciation in foreign equity holdings — significant positions in the static allocation of the buy-n-hold viewership. Mainstream financial commentators may choose to focus on the progress of the S&P 500 alone. They may choose to ignore c orrective activity in small caps via the Russell 2000, high yield bonds via SPDR S&P High Yield Corporate (NYSEARCA: JNK ) and transporters via the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Yet ignoring bearishness in asset prices around the world is particularly near-sighted, if for no other reason that global economic weakness is the biggest threat to the worldwide profits and the worldwide revenue of large U.S.-based corporations. The FTSE All-World Index may be particularly relevant. This benchmark covers the overwhelming majority of the world’s investable market capitalization. Its global perspective is heavily weighted toward developed regions, including the United States (52.5%), Europe with the United Kingdom (19.5%) and Japan (8.5%). Nine of the top 10 corporate constituents are U.S. companies. Some trends are easier to spot than others. For example, the FTSE All-World Index has not appreciated in price for nearly two years. Its 200-day long-term trendline currently slopes downward. And the benchmark is roughly 9% below its summertime peak. The good news? Prices are well above their October lows. It follows that the global benchmark may or may not have completed a 16%-17% correction several months earlier. Make no mistake about it, though. Large-cap U.S. companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, General Electric and Wells Fargo are responsible for the “resilience” of the FTSE All-World Index. Either key economies around the world – Europe, the United Kingdom, China, Japan – pull out of their collective funk in 2016, or U.S. large-cap stocks will eventually buckle. Top-line revenue has already declined in every quarter of 2015; non-dollar denominate profits have also taken a toll on multi-national players. Equally worrisome, foreign demand has been noticeably weak in the export data. In sum, you may not want to risk capital in overseas stocks until foreign countries and regions begin to respond to stimulus via economic expansion. Right now, most are mired in stagnation, recession or depression. Absent a desirable revival abroad, 2016 could be tough sledding for the U.S. economy and the heralded S&P 500. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Santa Brings Best Gifts For Oil ETFs

The long beleaguered oil industry could not have asked for a better Christmas Eve. A miserable year thanks to huge supply and falling demand has ended up in around a 50% fall in oil investments so far this year. Prices have plunged from over $110 a barrel seen in early 2014 to below $40 level now. But Santa Clause must have lugged surprise gifts for the oil sector as the price of this liquid commodity started to ascend prior to Christmas. The reason behind this jump was The American Petroleum Institute’s recent report (on December 22) which said the U.S. crude oil inventories declined 3.6 million barrels in the most recent week. If this was not enough, the very next day, the U.S. Energy Department indicated a decline of 5.9 million barrels in the week ended December 18. Analysts’ had predicted 1.1 million barrels of jump. U.S. crude oil inventories, which are now around 484.8 million barrels, have never seen such a Christmas Eve in the last 80 years. Gasoline and Distillate fuel output also fell last week, as per Energy Information Administration. The news brought a fresh lease of life to the oil sector, and why not? The space was shaken by the OPEC top brass Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries’ decision of ‘no product cut’ even after the global supply glut, fast falling demand on global growth issues, rising greenback on the Fed lift-off and mounting U.S. crude stockpiles over the last few weeks. ETF Impact Following the news of the inventory drawdown, oil futures started to rise. In fact, oil pulled up the entire stock market in the last two days after Fed-related woes upset it a few days back. The United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) – which looks to track the daily changes of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma – gained over 5.6% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). The Path S&P Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSEARCA: OIL ) – which reflects the returns that are potentially available through an investment in the WTI crude oil futures – added about 7.1% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). The United States Brent Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: BNO ) – which looks to track the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of Brent crude oil – advanced about 4.4% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). The PowerShares DB Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: DBO ) – which consists of futures contracts on WTI crude and is intended to reflect the performance of crude oil – returned about 5.6% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). Needless to say, energy stocks will also be big-time beneficiaries of this uptrend in oil. The energy sector ETF, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ) returned about 5.6% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FCG ) – which identifies and selects stocks that are involved in the exploration and production of natural gas – rose about 12% in the last two days (as of December 23, 2015). Bottom Line Having said that, we would like to note that oil price does not have any solid prospect in the near term. As per OPEC, oil will take four more years to return to the $70 a barrel level. Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that surplus supplies in the global oil market will remain in 2016 as demand growth has dropped from a five-year high level . Also, the likely joining of another player Iran in the global oil production arena – if international sanctions are lifted – will likely keep the market flooded with oil, per IEA. So, investors expecting a Santa Rally in the oil field should take a cautious approach. After all, the recent spike in oil prices looks temporary and the liquid commodity might succumb to a slowdown any time soon. Original Post