Tag Archives: nasdaq

Tepid Appetite For Risk Implies That Investors Are Still Haunted By Potential Loss

The appetite for risk is decidedly less vibrant than before the August-September meltdown. The notion that investors may still be spooked can be found outside of the bond arena as well. Broader market participation in the October rally is spotty at best. It’s one thing to consider the possibility that we’ve already seen the depths for 2015. It’s another thing to suggest that we will be heading for new heights anytime soon. Is the worst behind us? Maybe. Yet the appetite for risk is decidedly less vibrant than before the August-September meltdown. (Review Market Top? 15 Warning Signs .) Consider high-quality bonds as represented by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate A Option-Adjusted Spread. The yield spread between A-rated companies and comparable U.S. treasuries typically falls during periods when investors are feeling confident. This was the case throughout 2014. In contrast, when investors are concerned about their exposure to corporate credit, the spread widens. Indeed, the difference between A-rate corporate bonds and U.S. treasuries steadily rose in the summertime. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate A Option-Adjusted Spread spiked above 1.3 during the stock market lows in August and again at the start of October. It has since come down below a high-water mark in 2015, though it remains stubbornly high. Granted, there is nothing magical about this particular yield spread at 1.3 percent. On the other hand, a similar pattern of risk aversion occurred during the summer of 2007, right before the stock market’s bearish collapse (10/07-3/09). Some equity advocates prefer to dismiss warning signs of risk-off behavior in bonds. They have been assigning blame for lack of interest in high-yield “junk” to the ailing energy sector. However, funds like the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) and the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: JNK ) do not hold single A-rated bonds like Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB ) and Target (NYSE: TGT ). “Single As” are highly rated because the risk of default is negligible and they are as reliable as rain in Seattle. What’s more, they usually exhibit narrow spreads with comparable treasuries. It follows that a substantial “risk-on” return to stocks from current levels is unlikely to occur without a meaningful retreat below 1.3% in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate A Option-Adjusted Spread. The notion that investors may still be spooked can be found outside of the bond arena as well. For instance, when the investment community is adding to its collective risk profile, high beta stocks in the PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: SPHB ) tend to outperform less volatile stocks in the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ). This can be seen in the rising SPHB:USMV price ratio up through May of 2015. Unfortunately, the price ratio begin to decline in earnest during the summer. It hit new lows in August and September respectively. And while SPHB:USMV bounced off the September lows, the ratio is struggling to reaffirm a genuine uptrend. Even the NASDAQ’s Advance-Decline Line (A/D) is sending mixed messages. One would think that if risk were truly back in vogue, advancing issues in the stock benchmark (NASDAQ) would be pummeling the decliners. That’s not happening… at least not yet. In other words, broader market participation in the October rally is spotty at best. It is certainly possible that the worst for 2015 resides in the rear-view mirror. After all, the Federal Reserve’s inability to raise borrowing costs has sparked intrigue with respect to a “re-reflation” of asset prices in our muddle-through economy. On the flip side, with earnings as well as revenue both expected to decline for a second consecutive quarter (a.k.a. “earnings recession” and “sales recession”), some of that reflation may be kept in check. It’s one thing to consider the possibility that we’ve already seen the depths for 2015. It’s another thing to suggest that we will be heading for new heights anytime soon. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

How Knowledge Investments Translate Into Superior Profitability

Companies that invest in more knowledge assets, or intangible assets, than their peers leads to a sustainable competitive advantage that manifests itself in superior margins and profitability. Overall, Knowledge Leaders spend about 4x more on intangible investments than Knowledge Follower. The unique capital stock created by knowledge investments enables Knowledge Leaders to command higher margins, keep a more flexible balance sheet, and derive greater profitability than their less knowledge-intensive peers. Regular readers are by now well versed in our belief that companies that invest in more knowledge assets, or intangible assets, than their peers leads to a sustainable competitive advantage that manifests itself in superior margins and profitability. We call these knowledge intensive companies Knowledge Leaders. One of the most important takeaways of the academic literature on knowledge investments is that research shows that knowledge intensive companies end up having higher “future market share, future sales growth and future return on assets” than their less knowledge intensive peers ( Lev, 2005 ). In today’s post, we thought we would illustrate to our readers the statistical differences between Knowledge Leaders and Knowledge Followers. As always, the data we are using Gavekal Capital’s proprietary intangibly-adjusted, USD-based data and we are looking at all mid and large cap companies in the developed world. However, before diving in let me provide a brief overview of how the selection process begins in defining a knowledge leader. The first step of our process is to intangibly-adjust the financial statements of about 3000 companies (2000 in the developed world, 1000 in the emerging markets), going back to 1980 where possible, by removing R&D and a portion of SG&A expense and placing it on the balance sheet as a long-term asset. We carry this new long-term asset, called intellectual property, at historic cost by depreciating the asset and allow the depreciation charge to flow through the statement of cash flows and income statement. The goal here is simply to adhere to the symmetry accounting rule by treating intangible investments as similarly as tangible investments as possible. Once we have an intangible-adjusted set of financial statements, we run the companies through a quantitative screen that looks at seven different variables categorized by: knowledge intensity, financial strength, and profitability. In order for a company to be considered a Knowledge Leader, it must pass the following thresholds: Companies must spend at least 5% of sales on knowledge investments or have at least 5% of assets represented by knowledge. Companies must generate over 20% gross margins. Companies must have less than 3x gross financial leverage. Companies must have less than 50% net debt as a percent of total capital. Companies must have a positive trailing seven year average return on invested capital. Companies must have at least 10% operating cash flow margin on average over the last seven years. Companies must have a positive trailing seven year average free cash flow. For further explanation, please read our three part series on the academic foundation and the real-time application of the Knowledge Effect. Now that we have our foundation in place, let’s begin with the most basic assumption that Knowledge Leaders invest more in intangible assets than Knowledge Followers. Investments in intangible assets fall into two broad categories: research and development (R&D) and firm specific resources. Firm specific resources is a catch-all for other intangible investments such as advertising, brand building, employee training, and codified information. The median Knowledge Leader invests 2.7% of its sales in R&D compared to the median Knowledge Follower which invests just 0.06% of its sales in R&D. The median Knowledge Leader invests 6.9% of its sales in firm specific resources compared to the median Knowledge Follower which invests 2.3% of its sales in firm specific resources. Overall, Knowledge Leaders spend about 4x more on intangible investments than Knowledge Followers. This leads to the median Knowledge Leader having over 7x more intellectual property assets on its balance sheet than the median Knowledge Follower. The median Knowledge Leader has over 15% of its assets in long-term intellectual property. Because investing in knowledge investments creates a unique capital stock, Knowledge Leaders are able command greater profit margins. For those that are familiar with Warren Buffet’s “moat’ concept, a unique capital stock helps to create the moat for a company to maintain its competitive advantages. The median Knowledge Leader has a gross margin of 41.6% while the median Knowledge Follower has a gross margin of just 24.2%. Knowledge Leaders have higher gross margins in nine out of ten sectors. (click to enlarge) Under the archaic accounting rule SFAS #2, knowledge investments must be immediately expensed in the period they occur. This creates a massive distortion on company financial statements as investors have limited information on the innovative activities corporations are undertaking. Because this conservative accounting rule is in place, conservative institutions like banks will not loan money for knowledge investments since there isn’t any physical capital attached to the investment. This leads to a situation where knowledge investments are almost always entirely equity finance and consequently, the balance sheet of Knowledge Leaders is much more liquid and less levered than Knowledge Followers. Knowledge leaders have more cash and less debt as a % of total capital than Knowledge Followers. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) The good news is that Knowledge Leaders are not sacrificing return by having a more liquid, less levered balance sheet either. In fact, the median Knowledge Leader has superior return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (NASDAQ: ROIC ). If we break out Knowledge Leaders by sector its very apparent that this profitability superiority is wide and broad based. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) All in all, the unique capital stock created by knowledge investments enables Knowledge Leaders to command higher margins, keep a more flexible balance sheet, and derive greater profitability than their less knowledge intensive peers. The original posting of this article can be found here . All data was created by the author and sourced from Gavekal Capital and FactSet.