Tag Archives: nasdaq

Strong Fundamentals The Name Of The Game For Southern Company

Summary SO’s fundamentals strongly backed by its hefty capital investment plan. The company is utilizing available growth opportunities in the U.S. utility sector to keep earnings growing. SO is actively expanding its renewable energy generation portfolio. The stock is a good investment prospect for long-term income-seeking investors. Utility companies have a defensive business model because of consistent demand and regulated business exposure, which make revenues and cash flows highly certain. In the recent past, utility companies are incurring capital expenditures, which have been weighing on their earnings and cash flows. Utility companies are making capital expenditures to strengthen their power generation infrastructure to keep up with the gradually increasing electricity demand and keeping up with the changing environmental regulation. According to the EIA, electricity demand in the U.S. residential area will increase by 2.1% in the second half of 2015. The report also confirms 1.3% and 1.2% rises in commercial and industrial sales of U.S. utility companies in 2016. The bright outlook of the U.S. utility industry makes me bullish about Southern Company (NYSE: SO ), which is one of the largest utility companies in the U.S. The company serves both regulated and competitive markets across the U.S. SO is making its way in the U.S. utility industry by regularly investing heavily in expansion and the development of its renewable regulated asset base. Also, the stock maintains its attractiveness for income-hunting investors, as SO offers a yield of 4.8%. However, on the valuation front, anticipated production cost overruns at Kemper is making it trade at a discount to peers, which I think provides a good entry point for long-term investors. The company has been reporting healthy financial numbers, due to the strong backing of its large regulated asset base. The company registered an EPS of $1.17 in 3Q2015, an increase of $0.25 per share from EPS of the previous year’s same quarter. And for the nine months ending September 30th, the company’s EPS was $2.30, as compared to an EPS of $1.88 reported in the same period a year ago. The earnings growth momentum of SO is expected to remain strong in 4Q’15, which as per management’s estimates, will yield it a year-end EPS of $2.88 per share, at the high end of the previously given annual EPS guidance range of $2.76 to $2.88. I consider the company’s capital investment plan for the creation of a strong renewable energy generation base as a key driver of its future earnings growth. Recently, SO has announced that it will invest $2.3 billion this year, higher than its previous expectations of $1.4 billion. Although there are additional projects under consideration for 2016, its management still expects to spend around $1.3 billion during the year. Year to date in 2015, the company has announced around 12 new renewable energy-related projects, which will add 1,000MW capacity towards its existing renewable portfolio’s current capacity of 1,600MW. SO has been actively acquiring solar facilities to grow its portfolio of renewable energy generation. The company continued to develop itself as a solar success story by acquiring the 300MW Solar Gen2 and the 300MW Desert Stateline projects from First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR ). The acquisition being in line with SO’s business strategy of expanding wholesale business in targeted markets through the acquisition and construction of new units, will bode well for SO’s earnings growth in the long run. Moreover, the company is right on track to become the second largest gas utility in the U.S. by merging with AGL Resources (NYSE: GAS ). The merger is waiting for regulatory approval, expected in the second half of 2016, after seeking a nod from AGL’s shareholders. Upside of this merger rests in strengthening SO’s status as the regional powerhouse in southern U.S. Moreover, given the size of GAS, I believe the probable GAS-SO merger will boost overall earnings growth of the company by approximately 4% to 5%. More importantly, SO’s future earnings growth will be driven by the settlement of its Vogtle nuclear power plant. By keeping the nuclear power plants schedule on time, in-service dates of two nuclear power plants are expected to be 2019 and 2020. Actually, customer rate impact for Vogtle unit 3 and unit 4 is expected to remain in the previously predicted range of 6% to 8% , which will affect the company’s future earnings and free cash flow growth positively. Speaking of its clean coal power plant ‘Kemper’, which has been repeatedly delayed in the past few quarters, has resulted in stock valuation contraction. The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 15.34x , in contrast to the utility industry’s forward P/E of 18.85x . The management expects that the project will be operational from the first half of 2016, but in early October, the Mississippi Public Utilities staff analyzed the Kemper project and said that there is hardly a 30% chance that the project will be completed by December 2016. Given the fact that the company’s management has estimated a $25 to $30 million incremental cost, if the project is delayed in the second half of 2016, I believe the Kemper project will remain an overhang on the stock price in the near term. However, once the project is completed, it will augur well for the stock valuation. Furthermore, SO has an attractive capital repayment plan, strongly backed by its cash flows. In the current low interest environment, its current dividend yield of 4.80% , with its strong free cash flow growth potentials, is well headed to ensuring a safe and sustainable future of income investors, and casts an impressive outlook of the stock. Summation The company has strong business fundamentals, which are strongly backed by its hefty capital investment plan. In its attempts to keep its earnings growing, SO is utilizing the available growth opportunities in the U.S. utility sector. And for this, the company is actively expanding its renewable energy generation portfolio, which being regulated, offers huge earnings growth potentials. Owing to the strong growth potentials of SO’s ongoing renewable energy generation projects, I expect to see uninterrupted growth on its earnings and cash flows in the long term, which I think will help its shareholders to be satisfied by consistently increasing dividends. Therefore, I think the stock is a good investment prospect for long-term income-seeking investors.

Microcap Investing, The Ian Cassel Way

Note: This interview was published in the November 2015 issue of our premium newsletter, Value Investing Almanack . To gain instant access to more such interviews and other interesting stuff on value investing and business analysis, click here to subscribe now . Ian Cassel is the founder of MicroCapClub.com , which is an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors focused on microcap companies (sub-$300m market cap) trading on the U.S. and Canadian markets. Ian has been investing in microcaps for 15 years and has been a full-time microcap investor since 2008. Ian looks to invest in great management teams running great businesses with a moat. He tries to invest in the best 5-6-7 companies he can find at all times. Ian founded MicroCapClub in 2011 to be a place for “real” and experienced investors in the microcap space to share ideas and learn from one another. When Ian isn’t researching stocks or administering MicroCapClub, you can find him reading, golfing, or shopping at Costco with his wife. Let’s now jump straight into the interview. Safal Niveshak (SN): Could you tell us a little about your background, how you got interested in investing and also about your wonderful blog microcabclub.com? Ian Cassel (IC): I’m 34 years old, married, and have a daughter. I live in the U.S. in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Lancaster is a rural community mostly known for our Amish people . I am not Amish. I’m a full-time private microcap investor, which is a fancy way of saying I only invest my own capital (no family, friends, or clients) and only in small public companies called microcaps. I started investing in 1997. My parents had saved me approximately $25,000 for college. This was all I was getting, so they felt they should let me know before I started applying to Universities. At the same time, I was getting more interested in the stock market. I had met my parents’ financial advisor who was telling me about exciting technology companies. After much deliberation, I decided to go to a local less-expensive University so I could also work full time and pay for my tuition as I went. This way I could invest the full $25,000 in these exciting tech companies. I was going to get rich! In 1999, I went to Millersville University (Major: Economics), and worked full-time for a local financial advisor (I answered the phones). When the tech bubble burst in 2001, I lost 80% of my money; however, this wasn’t the biggest lesson that I learned. The financial advisor I worked for had over 1,100 clients, and when the tech bubble burst I literally heard from all them. ‘every day’ for months I would go into work, the phones would start ringing and clients would yell, scream, cry etc. I was a human punching bag. After a couple weeks I grew numb to their emotions. I also realized at that very moment I didn’t ever want to manage other people’s money. Investing is hard enough dealing with your own emotions let alone those that don’t have the mental/educational constructs. My goal was to become a full-time private investor. I just needed time to allow my capital base to snowball. In 2001-02, I started looking at smaller and smaller companies and ended up in the microcap space. I stumbled on a microcap company called XM Satellite radio in 2002. I tell the full story in detail here . Short version is I met with management, invested the little money I had left at $1.78/share, and in 14 months the stock went to $34/share. It was 99.99% luck, but my love affair with microcaps was born. From that point on, I started focusing on microcaps. Soon after, I started visiting microcap companies doing physical stock research. I felt microcaps were the best place to gain exclusive public information that could give me an edge. I graduated from Millersville University in 2003, and went right into an MBA program at Villanova University. When I wasn’t in class I was talking to management teams and other microcap investors. I learned by losing my money over and over again. I graduated from Villanova University in 2005 and started working for a firm that advised microcap companies. After six months I quit and started my own advisory firm. You can learn more about that experience here . Advising microcap management teams gave me first-hand experience on what management teams go through from an investor-capital markets perspective. I enjoyed advising, but the goal was to quit as soon as I had enough capital to be a full-time private investor. In late-2008, in the middle of the great recession, I quit advising and became a full-time private microcap investor. I now invest primarily in North American microcaps under $300 million market cap. There are approximately 11,000 microcap companies in North America, so there are plenty of rocks to turn over. Let me now talk a bit about MicroCapClub that was founded in 2011 and was formed to be an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors to exchange ideas, collaborate on due diligence, and learn from each other. Our focus is quality over quantity in everything we do. We only have 140 members. Over the last four years, members have profiled 50+ companies that have doubled or more. Our goal is to find great companies early. Due to demand from those that don’t have the ability and/or time to apply, we are launching a subscription product offering later this year. We also recently announced the first MicroCap Leadership Summit, which will be focused on creating better investors and finding great companies early. I’m honoured to have Sanjay Bakshi, Paul Lountzis, Chris Mayer, and others speaking at our inaugural event. On our MicroCapClub Blog, myself, my partner Mike Schellinger and a few other experienced microcap investors post educational content on microcap investing. The goal with our blog is to inspire, motivate, and educate others on microcap investing. You can find me on Twitter . My mind tends to think in 140 characters. I enjoy saying more with less words and sharing my thoughts on life and investing. SN: What a wonderful story that was, Ian. Thank you so much for laying bare about yourself and your past. You are a microcap investor now. So, what’s your broad investment philosophy, and how has it evolved over the years? IC: Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Joel Greenblatt and many others started their careers investing in microcaps. Some of the best performing public companies ever, including: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ), Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN ), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ), etc. started as small microcap companies. I’m sure you have many other examples of this in India, but the key to outsized returns is finding great companies early. If I could sum up my investment philosophy in one sentence, it would be – My goal is to own the smallest, most illiquid, least institutionally owned, best businesses I can find that are run by intelligent fanatics. I’m a long-only, quality focused, concentrated investor, investing in the best 4-5-6 companies I can find. I will hold my position as long as the management executes. I believe in deep qualitative analysis and constant maintenance due diligence so that I always know what I own. My edge is knowing my positions better than most. This gives me the conviction to hold multibaggers and the ability to see when the story changes so I can sell before the masses. The key to outsized returns is finding great companies early, when they are small companies. When you are evaluating small companies, often times they don’t have a long operating history (3 years or less). The best performing companies in North America over the last five years include companies like BioSyent ( OTCPK:BIOYF ) (170-bagger), Xpel ( OTC:XPLT ) (243-bagger), and Where Food Comes From ( OTCQB:WFCF ) (93-bagger). These companies are still microcaps today. Hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy to think, “Yeah I would have bought these companies five years ago.” I highly doubt that. If you were to look at these three companies five years ago you wouldn’t have touched them. These companies were literally trading at a $1 million market caps with little fundamental value. Reading their financial reports gave you very little foresight into the future. They weren’t obvious. With many microcaps you have to place your bet before you have full conviction. Earlier in my investment career, I would buy a full position all at once. This works when the company works, but you can lose a lot of money if you are wrong. The biggest change in my strategy is I now prefer to buy a full position over time as my conviction grows and as management executes. My biggest winners were companies where I was constantly averaging up . SN: That’s a wonderful strategy indeed – averaging up on quality stocks as your conviction builds up. Anyways, talking about microcap investing, how are the dynamics here different from say midcap of smallcap investing? Also, what excites you and worries you most in being a microcap investor? IC: Illiquidity is a big driver of outsized returns. It just so happens that most small public companies are illiquid. The main reason for this is larger pools of capital, mainly institutions, can’t invest in small illiquid companies. Even for smaller institutions managing $10-50 million, it is problematic buying a meaningful position. Many small microcaps trade $5,000-10,000-20,000 of volume per day. In addition, taking a $500k, $1m, $2m, position in a company might not move the needle for an institution. Warren Buffett started investing in microcaps, but quickly grew out of the space and was forced to look at bigger companies. Now Buffett admits, he can really only look at the largest 200 companies in the world because it’s the only way to move the needle. The microcap space is always losing its best investors, as they have to invest in bigger companies. Larger, smarter, money can’t invest in microcaps and this creates inefficiency. Accessibility to management is what got me hooked on microcaps. You can’t access management of larger companies. Evaluating microcap management teams are important for two reasons. First, the smaller the company the more you should focus on management and qualitative analysis. CEOs of small microcap companies tend to wear a bunch of hats, so their influence is much greater than larger companies. Microcap investing is really entrepreneurial investing. So not only “can” you talk to management, but you really “need” to talk to management. I’m cautious in saying this because not every small investor should expect to be able to call up and talk to management. The point I’m making is on quarterly conferences calls, etc. take advantage of the opportunity to ask good questions. Second, when you meet with management you gain incredible insight into how the operator thinks and solves problem. I’m looking to invest for the long-term so I need to understand the long-term vision. I’m a concentrated investor in illiquid investments, so you can always find something to worry about. I don’t worry about illiquidity ; I just worry about being right. If I’m right the companies will become liquid. This is why it’s imperative you know your positions better than most. SN: That’s a wonderful insight Ian, i.e., worrying about being right. Thanks for sharing! Anyways, do you believe in the concept of ‘circle of competence’ given your focus on microcap investing where every company might look like a different industry altogether? If yes, how have you built it over the years? IC: Yes, I believe in staying within your circle of competence. From time to time I meander outside my circle of competence and the market teaches me a lesson. Investing is a lifelong education and its teacher is loss. Many of your readers remember what Tom Watson Sr., founder of IBM (NYSE: IBM ) said, “I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots – but I stay around those spots.” There are 11,000+ microcap companies that trade on the U.S./Canadian markets. I personally only look to initially invest in microcaps