Tag Archives: nasdaq

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 2/17/16

Major averages rose on mixed volume. The higher volume on the NASDAQ Composite was easy to achieve as Friday’s volume was lower than normal given the 3-day weekend. The bounce in leading names such as AMZN and GOOGL on declining volume has been anemic relative to the bounce in the major averages. A wedging pattern is forming for both names, though should the bounce continue a bit longer, such names would likely catch up to the rising market as institutions tend to favor such big cap names as safer places to invest their capital. Nevertheless, the bounce remains suspect thus keeping a close eye on any potential short-sale candidates is prudent. Futures are up almost 1% at the time of this writing as the Federal Reserve’s minutes from their last meeting are due for release at 2 PM EST. The hope is that the minutes will show more evidence of a pause in rate hikes. Meanwhile, other central banks continue to ease as signs of any meaningful economy recovery remain elusive.

Japan ETFs To Tap On Renewed Stimulus Hopes

After logging in the biggest weekly drop of 11% in more than seven years on a rising yen, fears of a global slowdown and the sell-off in banks, the Japanese stocks bounced back strongly at the start of this week. Notably, the Nikkei 225 index jumped 7.2% in Monday’s trading session, representing the biggest daily gain since September, and extended gains of nearly 0.2% in today’s trading session. With this gain, the index has reversed the bearish trend it saw last week. Impressive two-day gains came on the back of bargain hunting and hopes for further stimulus from the central banks in Europe and Japan. In particular, renewed contraction in the Japanese economy brought back the need for more easing measures to stimulate the economy. Additionally, the yen has weakened from the highest level of ¥110.98 reached last week against the greenback that will benefit exporters and the manufacturing industry. This is because Japan is primarily an export-oriented economy, and a weaker currency makes its exports more competitive. More Stimulus in the Cards The economy contracted 1.4% year over year in the final quarter of 2016, worse than the Wall Street expectation of a 1.2% contraction. A drop in consumer spending, weak exports and lower private consumption continued to weigh on the growth of the world’s third-largest economy. The persistent slump in Japan’s biggest trading partner – China – added to the woes. The slowdown is the major setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his reform policy, Abenomics, which is aimed at pulling the country out of deflationary pressure and putting it back on the growth trajectory. Sluggish growth has raised speculation over additional fiscal stimulus by the central bank. Earlier this month, Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted measures similar to the European Central Bank (ECB) by pushing interest rates to the negative territory. Additionally, the central bank maintained its bond buying program of 80 trillion yen ($675 billion) per year and invested in exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Now, an analyst at J.P. Morgan expects BoJ to cut interest rates further to minus 0.5% from the current minus 0.1% anytime soon, plus increase its Japanese government-bond purchases. Further, many economists expect Japanese growth to rebound in the coming months. As per the survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 38 analysts project that the economy would expand by an average of 1.4% in the first quarter, which would mark the best growth in five quarters. Given this, Japanese ETFs are poised for a rebound, especially in the session right after the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. As a result, investors could tap the current opportune moment by investing in Japan ETFs. ETFs in Focus Currently, there are several Japanese equity ETFs trading on the U.S. market. While there are a handful that are relatively specialized, either tracking small-cap benchmarks or dividend-focused indexes, the most encouraging funds right now are the ones that are not confined to one segment, but provide exposure to the broad Japanese equity market. Below, we have highlighted some of them that could fetch substantial returns in the coming days on the expectation of additional stimulus. Of these, the ultra-popular fund is the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ ), with a total asset base of $17.7 billion. This fund tracks the MSCI Japan Index and holds 318 stocks in its basket. Though it is slightly skewed toward the top firm – Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM ) – at 5.8%, other firms do not account for more than 2.12% of assets. It trades in heavy volume of 50.3 million shares per day and charges 47 bps in annual fees. Another fund that provides a similar broad exposure to the Japanese stock market is the Precidian MAXIS Nikkei 225 Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NKY ). This fund does not have the same level of AUM or volume as EWJ, having nearly $41.6 million in assets and exchanging 40,000 shares a day. But it follows a much more widely known index – the Nikkei 225. Here, Fast Retailing ( OTCPK:FRCOF , OTCPK:FRCOY ) makes the top firm with 8.4% share, while other securities hold less than 4.3% share in the portfolio. The ETF has a slightly higher annual fee of 50 bps. Investors should note that both EWJ and NKY are large-cap centric funds with minor allocations to mid and small caps, and having consumer discretionary and industrials as the top two sectors. The products also have a Zacks Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating. Apart from these, Japan hedged funds – the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ), the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBJP ) and the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: HEWJ ) – seem excellent picks. These ETFs offer exposure to the broad Japanese stock market, while at the same time provide a hedge against any fall in the Japanese yen. The trio has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or “Buy” rating, suggesting that they will outperform the markets in the coming months. Risk-aggressive investors seeking to make big profits from the bullish sentiments in a very short period could go long on either of the three leveraged products, namely the ProShares Ultra MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EZJ ), the Direxion Daily MSCI Japan Currency Hedged Bull 2x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: HEGJ ) and the Direxion Daily Japan Bull 3X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: JPNL ) – available in the space. EZJ provides two times (2x, or 200%) leveraged exposure to the daily performance of the MSCI Japan Index, while JPNL creates a triple (3x, or 300%) leveraged long position in the same index. Meanwhile, HEGJ seeks two times leveraged exposure to the MSCI Japan US Dollar Hedged Index. Original Post

First Days And ADM

Well the first days of my break from work are going well so far. We’ve been hanging out at the beach, which has been a nice break from our normal life. Removed from my home repairs and trip planning… I’ve been able to spend time reading, writing and researching potential investments. My hope is to spend a few hours each morning, both now and on our upcoming road trip , reading/writing/researching. While this intentional time doesn’t bring the immediate financial rewards, like clocking in at my former day job, I find it immensely satisfying. We (my wife and I) still spend a lot of “busy time” with our son, but we try to schedule breaks for each other to relax and think. One of the things I’ve been meaning to do is dig into Archer Daniel Midland’s (NYSE: ADM ) financials and business model. Now that I’m unemployed, I have time to do just that. I acquired several hundred shares of ADM stock back in 2008 and held it for several years, before selling the shares for a tidy profit. In the summer of 2012, I again bought a few hundred shares of ADM stock, when the share price dropped from the $30s to about $26. My wife and I were actually on our honeymoon at the time… and I know she was wondering what she was getting herself into. A few months later, the price recovered and we again sold at a tidy profit. We did so another time, this time for a smaller profit. (The short-term swing trades we purchased through my Roth IRA brokerage account for the tax advantages.) You may wonder why I have traded in and out of ADM stock when we otherwise do very little trading. There are a few reasons, but one of the biggest is that until 2015, the share price traded in a fairly consistent range. (Take a look at the stock chart over the last 5 or 6 years.) That range was useful to me, as I was trying to slant the risk/reward ratio in my favor. I was, and am, also bullish on the industry that ADM participates in. While the net margins aren’t great (single digits) and the capital costs are high, ADM has positioned itself well within the food/sweetner/animal feed space. That being said, you may wonder why I didn’t just plan to buy and hold the stock for the next several decades. After all, many investment greats suggest not buying the stock of an individual company unless you intend to hold that stock for a very long time. I clearly had no intention of long-term ownership. The next two sections address what were/are my chief two issues historically, but I thought with so many of my investing friends snapping up shares of ADM, and the share price dropping into the lower $30s, it might be worth a look. Ethanol Ethanol is essentially an alcohol which can be made from various plants. The process requires sugar, so most ethanol in the United States is made from modified corn, sugar beets, or sugar cane. About 10 years ago, ADM got into this business in a huge way. American politicians foolishly, in my opinion, encouraged the production of ethanol through tax incentives and subsidies. At the time, oil prices were very high, and these programs were set up under the guise of “reducing our dependence on foreign oil”. Therefore, ethanol was mixed with gasoline as a fuel additive, because subsidized ethanol cost less per gallon than refined gasoline did. What’s not to like?! Well, I’ve never been a fan of political interference in the business world, particularly as politicians have a horrible record of capital allocation, but my political grandstanding aside, it was a risky bet for ADM. The company spent billions to purchase (or build) the various processing facilities in the appropriate farming regions. While ethanol had legislative support for a few years, the useful life of a processing facility could be expected to far outlast the average politician’s ethanol attention span. Fast-forward a few years, and you can see that the price of oil has fallen tremendously, and with it the margins on ethanol production. ADM’s management has talked about the collapsing, and about the volatility of ethanol margins for a few years now. They have also spoken extensively of the excess capacity of ethanol processing facilities as a result of the federal government subsidizing the building boom of such facilities over the past 10 years. Ethanol margins have actually been negative for nearly 2 years now. Management must know that they made a mistake investing so heavily in ethanol production, because they don’t even break out that part of the business in reports anymore. Instead, it’s lumped in with processing food sweeteners and additives. Unfortunately for the company, the genetically modified corn it purchases to make ethanol isn’t actually useful for anything else. It has been developed for its high sugar content and doesn’t lend itself to human or animal consumption. I guess it can have cattle graze the corn stubble once the ears of corn are harvested. (Makes me glad we grow wheat for human consumption and sorghum for animal grain on our farm.) Anyway, despite the miserable business line, the company has remained profitable and been paid down some debt. Speaking of debt… Debt The companies that make up the long-term holdings in our portfolio tend to have little, or at least reasonable, levels of debt. The reason is obvious. While the profitability of a given business can suffer, it’s really hard to go “bankrupt” if you’re not in debt. ADM’s debt load was my other chief concern a few years ago. The business requires large capital expenditures, which reduces the amount of free cash flow. A few years ago, debt exceeded the cash on hand by a tremendous amount. That, coupled with such a huge push into the ethanol space was enough to make me a trader, or rather than an investor, in the company’s common stock. Fast-forward a few years, and the total outstanding debt per share has fallen by almost 30%. Additionally, the Return on Equity and Net Margins have improved over the last 4 years (to 9.8% and 2.7%, respectively). While not great metrics, they aren’t horrible for such a volatile (and capital-intensive) business. Most importantly, as you can see from the table below, the amount of debt coming due in the next few years is fairly small as a percentage of the total. See the due dates in the table below. You’ll also notice that the bonds due in the next few years have interests rates far above the prevailing rates. These factors, along with the reduction of debt over the last few years should continue to give the company flexibility for the next few years. Click to enlarge ADM’s 2014 Annual Report So, will we invest in Archer Daniel Midland’s common stock over the next few months? We just might. I feel like the company’s financial position has improved over the past few years, though I still don’t love ADM. It has been reporting somewhat poor results for the last couple of years, which, I largely believe, is based on industry headwinds. I think it’s a good sign that against such a tough backdrop, the company has remained profitable and paid down debt. It should gain market share. The common shares currently have a Price-to-Earnings multiple around 11 and sport a dividend yield near 3%. Most interestingly, company insiders have made several stock purchases over the last 3 months. Those purchases have far outpaced the few stock sales and were made at higher prices. I don’t like the business prospects enough to be a long-term investor in ADM, but I like it enough to buy a slug of shares if the price approaches $30 in the near term. Ugh, I know, I’m a hypocrite. What are your thoughts on ADM common stock? Disclosure: I do not currently own shares in ADM, but may buy in the near term. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation for anyone to buy, sell, or hold any equities. I am not a financial professional. The information above is provided by GuruFocus.com and Yahoo Finance.