Tag Archives: nasdaq
The V20 Portfolio: Week #29
The V20 portfolio is an actively managed portfolio that seeks to achieve an annualized return of 20% over the long term. If you are a long-term investor, then this portfolio may be for you. You can read more about how the portfolio works and the associated risks here . Always do your own research before making an investment. Read the last update here . Note: Current allocation and planned transactions are only available to premium subscribers . Over the past week, the V20 Portfolio climbed by 7.9% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) rose slightly by 0.5%. Portfolio Update This week we saw significant volatility in our smallest holding, Dex Media (OTCMKT: OTCPK:DXMM ). Last week speculators drove up the price by more than 100% to a high of $0.28. After Wall Street Journal reported rumor of a planned bankruptcy, shares fell to where they traded prior to the run-up. Of course, the reason the V20 Portfolio holds the stock is not to trade these unpredictable swings. Ultimately the value of the equity will be dependent on the outcome of the negotiation. Prior to the management electing to miss an interest payment, the company still had enough liquidity to keep operations going. Intelsat (NYSE: I ) rallied as the high yield market recovered. Over the past month, shares climbed by almost 50%. As is the case with Dex Media, the company will be facing liquidity issues if it cannot refinance, which is why it is so dependent on the high yield market. The difference is that the company still has a good business that is growing. I believe that the discount arising from this issue will eventually disappear as the company deleverages. We also saw revised Q1 guidance from Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE ) this week. Operating margin was increased from 19-20.5% to 21.5%. While it is still lower than what was achieved in Q1 2015, it is still a good sign given the intense competition in the market. Because Spirit Airlines mainly competes on price, I believe that exchanging a temporary dip in profitability for market share is a sound strategy. Our recent stake in an insurance company has not moved much since our purchase, though the company has most certainly continued to collect sizable premiums in the first quarter. I believe that one of the main reasons is the expectation that 2016’s hurricane season will be one of the worst in recent years . As the hurricane season approaches, the market may become increasingly nervous about Florida P&C insurers in general. It is important to remember that we were not betting on the occurrence (or rather absence) of a catastrophic hurricane when we purchased a stake in the company, we were buying its long-term profits. Our biggest position, Conn’s (NASDAQ: CONN ), continued to climb this week, rising 24%. While there were no company specific news, I believe that the stock may have benefited from the recent rally in the energy sector. Due to the company’s concentration in Texas, it is possible that the market perceives the commodity rally as a sign that the job market will improve, leading to more sales and lower delinquencies at Conn’s. Performance Since Inception Click to enlarge Disclosure: I am/we are long DXMM, CONN, I, SAVE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Amazon To Miss Wall Street Q1 Earnings Expectations, Says Analyst
Mighty e-commerce giant Amazon.com ( AMZN ) will fall well short of Wall Street’s Q1 earnings estimates, at least one analyst predicts. Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, however, expects sales to beat view, he said in a research note Wednesday. The company is slated to report Q1 earnings after the close Thursday. Pachter forecasts earnings per share minus items of 45 cents. That would swing from a 12-cent loss in the year-earlier quarter, but analysts polled by Thomson Reuters have modeled EPS ex items of 58 cents. IBD Take: Amazon is a Leaderboard stock. Find out why at IBD Stock Checkup. Amazon is known for de-emphasizing profit as it strives for growth. Capital expenditures on items such as new fulfillment centers , more digital content, expansion of several of its e-tail lines and expanding delivery offerings will contribute to lower-than-expected earnings, Patcher wrote. Analysts have modeled a 21% increase in revenue vs. Q1 2015, to $28 billion. That would be down a tad from 22% and 23% year-over-year growth in the two preceding quarters. The Amazon Prime loyalty program also is going to eat into profits, Pachter says, because of the company’s aggressive efforts to sign up more members. Pachter also expects Prime’s new monthly $10.99 payment option — previously it was only available for $99 for 12 months — will further boost membership, especially around the holiday shopping season . Amazon’s cloud services division, Amazon Web Services, is likely to continue to see growing gross and operating margins, Patcher says. But he expects growth to be “measured” due to the company’s investments in international data centers. Patcher says a recent letter Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos sent to shareholders suggests that the company is going to continue to “invest in growth” beyond what Wall Street is expecting. Amazon’s Q4 2015 financials fell shy of Wall Street’s outsized expectations. Image provided by Shutterstock .