Tag Archives: market lab report

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/8/15

Major averages fell Friday on lower, pre-holiday volume. From a contrarian standpoint, the number of bears shot higher and the put-call ratio continues to spike above 1.0 which would imply the market may bounce again sooner than expected. Futures are up sharply this morning after overnight rallies in China and Europe. The action is not unexpected as the market is still working off the capitulation low of three Mondays ago, and could remain choppy for a period of time. As always, keep stops tight as elevated levels of volatility is expected to continue. Overnight, data showed Chinese exports fell in August for a second straight month, underscoring concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum. Futures are nevertheless up about 1.5%  at the time of this writing as China is expected to increase their levels of quantitative easing and may also allow the yuan to weaken once again.  The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 16-17. CME futures show the probably of a rate hike now stands at just 19%.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/4/15

Major averages finished mixed at the lower end of their respective trading ranges yesterday on lower volume ahead of today’s August payrolls data. Estimates range from 173,000 to 257,000, with the consensus at 223,000.  The pace of hiring in the United States slowed in August to 173,000, the smallest increase since March and the second smallest gain of the year. But the dropoff probably wasn’t weak enough to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider plans to raise interest rates this year as the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3%, the lowest level since April 2008. Plus wages also picked up. Futures fell on the news due to fears of a rate hike sometime this year. Indeed, CME futures predict a 27% change of a rate hike when the Fed meets September 17, a 39% when they meet October 28, and a 58% chance of a hike when they meet December 16. Over in Europe, the ECB yesterday said they may accelerate their bond-buying program which initially pushed US markets higher in yesterday’s trade. Expect elevated levels of volatility to continue.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/3/15

Major averages bounced higher on lower volume yesterday, as the action remains somewhat normal within the context of the massive capitulation sell-off of two Mondays ago. In economic news, data showed solid private-sector job gains in August and a jump in productivity growth in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book said several district banks “reported increasing wage pressures caused by labor market tightening”, a change from earlier reports. But there were also indications that the strong dollar and the drop in oil prices were depressing activity, which could argue for holding off on raising interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets September 16-17. China’s markets are closed both today and tomorrow, while the U.S. markets look forward to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs number, which could have an impact on where indexes go from here. In the meantime the indexes remain in a six-day rally attempt off of last Monday’s lows. Â