Tag Archives: market lab report

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/25/15

Major averages fell yesterday on higher volume though closed in the top quarter of their respective trading ranges. Federal Reserve chairperson Yellen gave a speech after yesterday’s close. âProspects for the U.S. economy generally appear solid” and signs of weak growth overseas wonât prove large enough to have a significant impact on policy, noted Yellen. Futures are consequently higher by more than 1% at the time of this writing as her words soothed worries that the US economy could get pulled down with the problematic global economy. That said, when major world economies tumble, it always has affected other major economies. The US is no exception. So while China’s troubles could spill over into the US, major market tops can take months to form. Thus in answer to the question of whether one should short at the close given problems in China because they believe markets are heading lower, the market remains in a highly volatile gap-up, gap-down state with various forms of manipulation still present. Thus one takes ample risk of putting on a new position at the close in the hopes of a gap down the next day. The odds are better in buying or shorting the right stocks at the right time as a number of such stocks have been nicely profitable this year, rather than trying to get “cute” with the market by trying to predict gap downs at the next day’s open, as this is often news driven. This morning’s sharp gap-up coming immediately on the heels of yesterday’s sharp gap-down provides a case in point.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/24/15

Major averages finished roughly flat yesterday on significantly lower, below average volume, due in part to the Yom Kippur Jewish holiday. The action essentially consolidated Tuesday’s higher-volume gap-down, setting up this morning’s gap-down in the futures. The market’s sloppy ascent from its lows in late August coupled with a good number of distribution days suggests a retest of lows may be in the cards. Indeed, futures are down nearly 1% at the time of this writing. Markets eagerly await Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellon’s speech this evening at 5pm EST. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a rate hike in October at 11% and in December at 35%. As always, keep stops tight and take profits when you have them in context with the stock’s chart.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 9/23/15

Major averages took it on the chin yesterday on higher volume as the market looks poised to potentially retest prior lows as it did in 2010 after the flash crash and in 2011 after the Greek debt crisis arose. That said, should the markets calm down and tighten up as they did twice in the second half of 2012 after two 10%+ corrections, they could move higher and approach old highs. Of course, Operation Twist then QE3 were largely responsible for the markets moving higher back in 2012-2013. So as long as the global economy remains troubled and the Fed continues to push for a rate hike, new highs may be a long way off. Currently the indexes remain in a choppy, rising range following the selling climax that occurred in late August. Many leading stocks remain mired in weak positions within their chart patterns, while some have attempted to recover and were able to hold key moving averages despite yesterday’s selling, such as PANW, FB, TSLA, SKX, UA, AMZN, etc. Thus the market may move into a bifurcated phase where some stocks are playable on the long side while others continue to languish and, in some cases, present short-sale targets. If the market is setting up for another leg to the downside, it may take several weeks to develop, and therefore it is difficult for investors to make any firm conclusions aoutside of dealing with the market on a stock-by-stock basis.