Tag Archives: market lab report

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 10/5/15

Major averages gapped lower on Friday’s weaker than expected payrolls report, then climbed higher the rest of the day to finish strongly to the upside on increased volume. The majors, however, are still under critical moving averages and, as we have mentioned, investors should expect heightened levels of volatility. Thus Friday’s positive action will not necessarily lead to a resumption of any uptrend as seemingly positive action following the Flash Crash in 2010 and the steep correction in mid-2011 resulted in retests of lows. However, within the context of an overall bearish consolidation following the “Capitulation Monday” lows of late August, a rally up towards the 50-day moving average in any of the indexes would not necessarily be surprising. As always, we let the stocks guide us in terms of how bullish or bearish we become. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a rate hike when the Fed next meets on October 28 at just 7%. December 16 is not much better at 29%. Thus, it is probably safe to say that the Fed will not be hiking rates this year, despite what Chairperson Yellon said earlier. We must remember the Fed is tied to the government so anything they say is designed to soothe markets or talk them higher. Futures are up on improving commodity prices. European markets are higher by more than 2%.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 10/2/15

Major averages nudged slightly higher on lower volume, managing to close near the top of their respective trading ranges. The indexes have all been plumbing their late August lows, and today’s jobs report has the futures down sharply. The US non-farm payrolls report came in at 142,000 new jobs vs. estimates of 205,000 and higher. In addition, last month was revised down to 136,000 from 173,000 jobs, while the largely meaningless unemployment report remains at 5.1%. The meaninglessness of the unemployment rate has been confirmed by the Fed, which last year claimed that a rate of 6.5% would be the threshold at which they would begin to raise rates, but instead they have continued to pass on doing so even as the rate has moved 1.4% below the alleged threshold. Thus the number is largely meaningless, and the Fed knows it. The Market Direction Model, meanwhile, remains on a sell signal.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 10/1/15

Major averages bounced yesterday on higher volume after having sold off for a number of days. The bounce is logical within the context of the indexes retesting their late August lows after a six-day sell-off in the NASDAQ Composite & S&P 500 Indexes. The Russell 2000 Index sold off for eight straight days and fell far enough to undercut its late August lows. Combined with quarter-end window dressing that saw volume accelerate into the close, the bounce was quite logical. Futures were up nicely again as the bounce continues. But given global economic concerns, the CME FedWatch is pricing in just an 11% chance of a rate hike when the Fed meets next in October. The odds jump to 39% in December. Thus odds say it is becoming less likely the Fed will hike sometime this year. The market has fallen back into the red. We again see Tesla Motors (TSLA) as a short-sale candidate here using the 50-day moving average at 251.23 as a guide for an upside stop. The closer to the 50-day line one can enter a short-sale the better. Tesla is expected to announce earnings on November 4th.