Tag Archives: market lab report

IMPORTANT UPDATE ON VIX VOLATILITY MODEL (VVM)

The current signal on the VIX Volatility Model (VVM) is up +11.5% in just a few days at the time of this writing using volatility ETF SVXY (see date/time stamp to this email). Should the market trend higher, so should the model’s gains on this current buy signal. Yes, the model is volatile, thus I have recently put in place additional significant fail-safe rules into the model that are discussed below which dramatically improve the model’s profit/loss. Extensive backtests and actual money tested real-time, under fire is proving out. That said, always remember past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Some examples of the fail-safes in action (see VIX Volatility Model (VVM) reports for original signals here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/reports): Buy signal on 8/27/15 = Instead of a loss of -10.2%, you would have been stopped out at a loss of -1.5%. Sell signal on 8/31/15 = You would have closed out the trade on 9/1/15 for a two day gain of just over 20% using VXX, the 1x ETF. As I remarked in a previous email update to members, taking at least partial profits when you have such huge profits in such a short time is wise. Sell signal on 9/4/15 = Instead of a loss of -5.3%, you would have been stopped out at a loss of -3.6%.   Similar improvements apply to the other signals. Since the signals can be fairly frequent, profits in backtests over just a few weeks have been substantial, even in a largely trendless year such as this one. The key is in taking advantage of the volatile moves in volatility-based ETFs such as SVXY, VIXY, XIV, and UVXY. The fail-safes keep losses to a minimum while profitable signals are often far greater.  The most recent buy signal on 10/9/15 went to cash on the same day as its sell stop was hit for a small -1.5% loss. But with the new fail-safe rules in place which sometimes allow for buying back a position after a small (typically around 1% or less) loss, you would have bought back the position the same day. Price bought: 29.15. Current price: 32.56. Gain: +11.5%. After the model has more good signals under its belt, it will go live. Stay tuned. Until then, we will update members using the beta version with real-time emails as the signals come.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 10/23/15

Markets rallied yesterday on higher, above average volume as the European Central Bank suggested that it might expand its economic stimulus plan. With the weakening global economy, expect central banks to remain addicted to the QE morphine drip. Indeed, China today announced it will cut interest rates 25 basis points. Futures rallied strongly on the news.  At today’s open, the NASDAQ Composite should gap up through its 200-day moving averaged helped by tech juggernauts Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT), all of which reported strong earnings and are gapping significantly higher in pre-open trade. NASDAQ futures are outpacing S&P futures at the time of this writing as all three tech stocks are weighted in the NASDAQ-100 index as follows: Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 7.483% Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) 5.153% Alphabet Inc (GOOG)  4.381% A number of medium quality stocks had pocket pivots in yesterday’s trade which implies market internals are shaping up, but as members know, we focus on the highest quality stocks on a risk/reward basis with leading fundamentals and technicals. We have seen a few of these do well such as MANH, SBUX, LGIH and IPHI. We could see a growing number of leading names start to perform as we did earlier this year, despite the trendless market. So should the market resume its trendless ways, that is never an excuse for an investor to take their eye off their stocks, watch lists, and screens. Volatility which had been mostly noise is cleaning up for the time being, thus the path of least resistance for now is up, as discussed in today’s Market Direction Model (MDM) report. The Volatility Model, for now, will remain in cash as its risk/reward given its more volatile ETFs and shorter term horizon is not optimal as of yet. That said, this could quickly change. IT consultant Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) had a pocket pivot breakout. Keep in mind it has been better in this QE-driven market environment to wait for a constructive pullback instead of buying on strength. Pretax margin 20.6%, ROE 23%, earnings and sales are accelerating, group rank 3.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 10/22/15

Major averages dropped yesterday on higher but below average volume. The market may be taking a brief pause here to digest its gains though futures are up around 0.5% at the time of this writing. The NASDAQ Composite has thus far run into resistance at its 200-day moving average, and yesterday peeled away from the line to the downside. The number of actionable names continues though only a handful have performed well over the last several days such as MANH and IPHI. Tentative market action is not surprising with the number of distribution days building. Supply chain management software company Manhattan Associates (MANH) had a buyable gap up on a strong earnings report. This comes two days after its pocket pivot on which we reported. Pretax margin 28%, ROE 48.5%, consistent and accelerating earnings, group rank 28. Lighting products company Acuity Brands (AYI) had a pocket pivot. Earnings and sales are strong and steady, group rank 11.