Tag Archives: market lab report

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 12/4/15

Major averages dropped yesterday on larger, above average volume. The S&P 500 got support at its 10-week moving average. Two reasons were cited for the selloff: First, Fed Chairperson Yellen said they could lower rates again should they hike in December. Second, the European Central Bank lowered rates but at the low end of expectations sending European markets lower. The markets seem to be telegraphing it wants more quantitative easing from central banks such as the ECB but that it also wants reassurance from Fed Chairperson Yellen that a rate hike is a sign the economy in the US may be turning a corner. Yesterday, the markets got neither. The ECB disappointed by not easing enough, and Yellen reiterated that any rate hikes would be done slowly as needed, and could even be reversed. Regardless of the reasons behind the selloff, all that matters is price/volume action when it comes to taking profits and keeping stops tight in context with the chart and general market.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 12/3/15

Major averages fell on higher volume. Oil closed under $40 for the first time in three months and is close to major multi-year lows. The market headed lower after Federal Reserve Chairperson Yellen yesterday said she would support a rate hike if conditions warrant when the Fed meets in December. The data so far has met the requirements for a hike, but she voiced concerns about slack demand in the labor market, and that monetary policy will remain easy going for quite a long time, implying that the economic recovery make take longer than expected. The odds of a rate hike according to CME FedWatch stand at 75%. Of those who believe the Fed will hike rates, one-quarter believes the Fed will hike 25 basis points, while three-quarters say 50 basis points. Over in Europe, the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate further into negative territory. The ECB dropped the deposit rate on money parked at the central bank overnight to minus 0.3% from minus 0.2% which was at the low end of expectations. European markets consequently sold off on the news while the euro rallied. The ECB left its key lending rate unchanged at 0.05% and the rate on its marginal lending facility at 0.3%. ECB President Mario Draghi will announce further monetary stimulus measures when he holds his news conference at 8:30 am EST. Biotech CYTK had a pocket pivot breakout. Keep in mind this is a smaller, thinner development stage company in the biotech space thus risk is amplified. Earnings are zero and sales are small. Upward price thrust is massive. Airline company JBLU had a pocket pivot earlier in the day but closed near the low of its trading range in the face of a weak market. It is always better to see a stock buck market weakness when it is having a pocket pivot. If you bought this one earlier yesterday, and did not sell near the close, you should keep stops extra tight on this one, perhaps using an undercut of yesterday’s low as your sell stop. Internet furniture retailer W had a buyable gap up on reports that its holiday sales surged. It closed mid-bar but since it is a buyable gap up, a midbar close in context with its chart is still acceptable. Sales are soaring, institutional sponsorship has grown over the last 4 quarters since it went public, group rank 3. Cloud-based IT software company NOW had a pocket pivot though closed in the lower half of its trading range, thus is a weaker pocket pivot. Earnings are soaring, sales are robust, institutional sponsorship has grown over the last four quarters, group rank 7.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 12/2/15

Major averages rose yesterday on lower volume. After forming a multi-month basing pattern, the majors look poised to breakout to new highs as they now sit less than 2% away from blue sky. The issue will be whether they encounter resistance as they pierce into new high ground much as they have numerous times this year. The US markets have only had miniscule help from quantitative easing, which formally ended in the US in late 2014, to propel them higher with any consistency. That said, it does seem that US markets have now turned their attention to the impending first rate hike in nearly a decade. The reaction has been more or less bullish as markets price in a probable rate hike. The failure of QE to stimulate global economies is due primarily to the purchasing of government debt instead of corporate bonds while raising taxes as much as possible to pay for QE. With the three types of inflation – asset, demand, and currency inflation – government debt only serves to eventually increase asset inflation while devaluing the currency. Only corporate debt can increase demand inflation which is a true sign the economy is recovering.  In 1913, the Federal Reserve was established with the directive to buy only corporate debt, never government debt, to stimulate the economy. Thus, when banks were reluctant to lend, the Fed would buy the corporate paper and that would prevent rising unemployment by stimulating growth in corporations. But then World War I came along in 1914, and directive of the Fed was changed so they would start to buy government bonds. Sadly, the directive continues today. Ending QE and hiking rates is healthy for US markets despite the QE punch bowl having been removed about a year ago. The Federal Reserve is not following other central banks as the Fed seems to understand that negative rates destabilize pension funds and the efficient use of capital. The Fed has said it cannot be held hostage to easy money policies set by other central banks, thus sees that interest rates must rise to be “normalized” to prevent a further economic crisis. Indeed, markets seem to be reacting bullishly. Identity theft protection company Lifelock (LOCK) had a pocket pivot. Earnings are accelerating, group rank 47. LOCK gapped higher on its prior earnings report. Airline company Virgin America (VA) had a pocket pivot. Earnings are strongly accelerating, institutional sponsorship has grown over the last 4 quarters since the company went public, group rank 42. After hours yesterday VA announced a 26 million share secondary offering which is bringing the stock down this morning. Investors should wait for the offering to be priced before acting on this pocket pivot. Electronic market making and brokerage firm Interactive Brokers (IBKR) had a pocket pivot base breakout. Earnings and sales are re-accelerating, institutional sponsorship has grown over the last four quarters, pretax margni 45.4%, group rank 92.